Arctic Roll
Added [Sunday November 14 2004 : 8:19:01 PM]

Real weather model problems at the moment with the end of this week
balancing between either unsettled weather or a true Arctic blast of cold
air.

The deciding factor, is actually happening right now, 4430 miles West of
your PC.

A primary area of low pressure over Alaska is about to spawn a secondary low
and it's the track and intensity of this low which decides whether London
gets snow at the end of the week.

If the low deepens and moves up the Western coast of Greenland, then the UK
should prepare for widespread snowfall, if the low fails to deepen then the
Atlantic will push back in before the cold air gets any further South than
the M6.

Needless to say, we'll be following developments closely over Alaska for the
next 24 hours...

Source: Metcheck.

My Comment:

I wonder what all of you think of this one.



--
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Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.

www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated

When two Englishmen meet, their first talk is of the weather. ~ Samuel
Johnson.


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Personally i agree..... It does need monitoring over the next 24 hours, i
would go as far as to say over the next 72 hours. As much as i'm for
putting you neck out, and making a forecast, its too early to call it yet.
Give i 24-48 hrs, then you will have a better picture.

Mike

www.dudleyweather.angelcities.com


"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...
Arctic Roll
Added [Sunday November 14 2004 : 8:19:01 PM]

Real weather model problems at the moment with the end of this week
balancing between either unsettled weather or a true Arctic blast of cold
air.

The deciding factor, is actually happening right now, 4430 miles West of
your PC.

A primary area of low pressure over Alaska is about to spawn a secondary
low
and it's the track and intensity of this low which decides whether London
gets snow at the end of the week.

If the low deepens and moves up the Western coast of Greenland, then the
UK
should prepare for widespread snowfall, if the low fails to deepen then
the
Atlantic will push back in before the cold air gets any further South than
the M6.

Needless to say, we'll be following developments closely over Alaska for
the
next 24 hours...

Source: Metcheck.

My Comment:

I wonder what all of you think of this one.



--

************************************************** **************************
********************************************
Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.

www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated

When two Englishmen meet, their first talk is of the weather. ~ Samuel
Johnson.


All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
Professional 2004.


************************************************** **************************
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On Sun, 14 Nov 2004 21:14:30 -0000, Gavin Staples wrote:

... the low fails to deepen then the Atlantic will push back in
before the cold air gets any further South than the M6.

How can you get further south of a motorway that runs north/south for
most of it's length?

--
Cheers
Dave. pam is missing e-mail

My Comment:

I wonder what all of you think of this one.

You ought to start a Market Research Company Gavin!
Seriously though, I have gained an opinion over the last few years from what
I have read on here and elsewhere and looking at the models outputs etc. For
what it's worth, IMHO
1. They all have pretty much the same raw data input, or they should have.
2. Their algorithms often give completely different outcomes to each other
and if the data suddenly changes then a completely different outcome will be
the result.
3. As with the above synopsis, one scenario has a domino effect on others
and the variables are immense. It seems a bit like working out the outcome
of a chess move. OK one move ahead, trickier two moves, and so on. Each day
out is like a further move.Chess has no Chaos Theory to contend with!
4. Using that analogy I have concluded that these models are no Gary
Kasparov!
5. Therefore, models and forecasts more than three days out are interesting
and complex but not something I can rely on.

I'm sure that in the next 5 days there will be far more factors than the two
highlighted that will decide if and who gets snow at the end of the week.

Dave. 5.9C, 2245Z - (Model fooling cloud-cover responsible!)

I think it's Metcheck now panicking at what would have been a fantastic
fluke forecast disappearing in to the twighlight zonal!


"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...
Arctic Roll
Added [Sunday November 14 2004 : 8:19:01 PM]

Real weather model problems at the moment with the end of this week
balancing between either unsettled weather or a true Arctic blast of cold
air.

The deciding factor, is actually happening right now, 4430 miles West of
your PC.

A primary area of low pressure over Alaska is about to spawn a secondary
low
and it's the track and intensity of this low which decides whether London
gets snow at the end of the week.

If the low deepens and moves up the Western coast of Greenland, then the
UK
should prepare for widespread snowfall, if the low fails to deepen then
the
Atlantic will push back in before the cold air gets any further South than
the M6.

Needless to say, we'll be following developments closely over Alaska for
the
next 24 hours...

Source: Metcheck.

My Comment:

I wonder what all of you think of this one.



--

************************************************** **************************
********************************************
Gavin Staples.

Cambridge, UK.

www.gavinstaples.com
site regularly updated

When two Englishmen meet, their first talk is of the weather. ~ Samuel
Johnson.


All outgoing emails are checked for viruses by Norton Internet Security
Professional 2004.


************************************************** **************************
************************************************** **





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On Sun, 14 Nov 2004 22:48:44 GMT, "Dave.C"
wrote:

3. As with the above synopsis, one scenario has a domino effect on others
and the variables are immense. It seems a bit like working out the outcome
of a chess move. OK one move ahead, trickier two moves, and so on. Each day
out is like a further move.Chess has no Chaos Theory to contend with!
4. Using that analogy I have concluded that these models are no Gary
Kasparov!
5. Therefore, models and forecasts more than three days out are interesting
and complex but not something I can rely on.

I'm sure that in the next 5 days there will be far more factors than the two
highlighted that will decide if and who gets snow at the end of the week.

I agree - it's plain silly to put out a forecast like Metcheck's
"snow" scenario because that's all it is - one of several possible
scenarios with too many hard-to-predict variables to take it seriously
at this range. Recent climatology should have taught us all by now
that the "snowy Northerly" scenario rarely happens - one of the others
usually prevails. Especially *this* early in the season!

Someone throw a bucket of water over Mr Metcheck.

--
Dave

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message

snip

I agree - it's plain silly to put out a forecast like Metcheck's
"snow" scenario because that's all it is - one of several possible
scenarios with too many hard-to-predict variables to take it seriously
at this range. Recent climatology should have taught us all by now
that the "snowy Northerly" scenario rarely happens - one of the others
usually prevails. Especially *this* early in the season!

Someone throw a bucket of water over Mr Metcheck.

Perhaps a bucket of grit would be more appropriate :-)

Interestingly Mr Metcheck always seems to disappear from this group
following periods of media hype, can't imagine why..

Jon.





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Dave Liquorice wrote:

How can you get further south of a motorway that runs north/south for
most of it's length?

I was a bit puzzled by that too. Presumably it means either Carlisle or
Rugby, but which?
--
Steve Loft, Wanlockhead, Dumfriesshire. 1417ft ASL
http://www.wanlockhead.org.uk/weather/
Free weather softwa http://cumulus.nybbles.co.uk/
Experimental webcam: http://www.wanlockhead.org.uk/webcam.php

No. They'll just *grit* their teeth, wait till things calm down and then
make another immpossible forecast.





"Jon O Rourke" wrote in message
news:d52070a226f61008599a2a9d9b8f1105.62236@mygate .mailgate.org...
"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message

snip

I agree - it's plain silly to put out a forecast like Metcheck's
"snow" scenario because that's all it is - one of several possible
scenarios with too many hard-to-predict variables to take it seriously
at this range. Recent climatology should have taught us all by now
that the "snowy Northerly" scenario rarely happens - one of the others
usually prevails. Especially *this* early in the season!

Someone throw a bucket of water over Mr Metcheck.

Perhaps a bucket of grit would be more appropriate :-)

Interestingly Mr Metcheck always seems to disappear from this group
following periods of media hype, can't imagine why..

Jon.





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On Mon, 15 Nov 2004 09:36:45 +0000 (UTC), "Lawrence Jenkins"
wrote:

No. They'll just *grit* their teeth, wait till things calm down and then
make another immpossible forecast.

I've got a vested interest in this forecast as it prophecies snow for
Argyll on Thursday. I'll let you know what happens.

--
Alan White
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow.
Overlooking Loch Goil and Loch Long in Argyll, Scotland.
http://tinyurl.com/4gday