According to BBC News, a spokeswoman at the BBC weather centre said:

"Saturday is the last of the winter weather before it turns spring-like. The
weather will be warm for the foreseeable future,"

Dont think she's looked at the GFS progs for next weekend....

Phil
--

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/phil.layton/meteo.htm

In article ,
Phil Layton writes:
According to BBC News, a spokeswoman at the BBC weather centre said:

"Saturday is the last of the winter weather before it turns spring-like. The
weather will be warm for the foreseeable future,"

Dont think she's looked at the GFS progs for next weekend....

Maybe she thinks, arguably correctly, that the truly foreseeable future
is limited to 5 days.
--
John Hall
Johnson: "Well, we had a good talk."
Boswell: "Yes, Sir, you tossed and gored several persons."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84); James Boswell (1740-95)

Hi Phil,
Why would anyone do that? Although the GFS is probably the best out there
right now, anything after 120 hours seems to go goofy.(Not accurate) Plus
the fact the GFS seems to have four 'models' in one. At the end of the day
they really are a waste of time.
Danny.
-----------------------------------------------------------


Dont think she's looked at the GFS progs for next weekend....

"danny(West Kent)" wrote in message
.. .
Hi Phil,
Why would anyone do that? Although the GFS is probably the best out there
right now, anything after 120 hours seems to go goofy.(Not accurate) Plus
the fact the GFS seems to have four 'models' in one. At the end of the day
they really are a waste of time.
Danny.

No they are not a waste of time. How do you think advances in forecasting
are made? You have to produce forecasts beyond five days, even if a
lot of them are questionable in order to gain data to aid further developments
in forecasting. How on earth do you think we arrived at the current situation of
having reasonably accurate 5 day forecasts?
Imagine if 50 odd years ago we considered that anything beyond 3 days
was 'a waste of time'................

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

How on earth do you think we arrived at the current situation of
having reasonably accurate 5 day forecasts?

LOL, Your idea of "reasonably accurate" is different than mine!

On Sat, 20 Nov 2004 19:19:48 -0000, "Phil Layton"
wrote:

According to BBC News, a spokeswoman at the BBC weather centre said:

"Saturday is the last of the winter weather before it turns spring-like.

Didn't she mean autumn-like?


--
Paul

Hi Col,

No they are not a waste of time. How do you think advances in forecasting
are made? You have to produce forecasts beyond five days, even if a
lot of them are questionable in order to gain data to aid further
developments
in forecasting.

I meant they are a waste of time to look at and rely on for a half decent
idea of the weather, at this moment in time anyway. But yes, I'm totally
positive to these LRF's for the reasons *you give* in your post.

How on earth do you think we arrived at the current situation of
having reasonably accurate 5 day forecasts?

He referred to next weeked which is like 6-7 days away.... I don't think the
GFS is very accurate at this range.... only in certain situations. Just my
personal opinion, and then there is this thing of 'outliers' whatever they
call them, basically not the real deal, and looking at some of the vast
differences of the 4 runs in 24 hours sometimes, would back this up.
Within 5 days seems pretty good *in most situations* but tends to be the
limit.. it seems to fall away after that.
If I could have a fiver everytime I see a cold, snowy looking chart for the
SE of England at 120 or 144 hours in the last 5 years, I'd be a rich man!
We never see these great looking charts at sub 48 hours do we?
In NW Europe, these LRF's tend to fall down when the weather starts becoming
very different ... e.g. cold weather situations, when the Azores high
displaces, etc etc. In July, August, see the LRF start showing the Azores
moving up\NE\whatever, nice warm S, sw blah blah, you can rely on it. It's
all common sense. You know when it's gonna be right, you just gotta *have a
clue* .

"Steve Jones" wrote in message
...
How on earth do you think we arrived at the current situation of
having reasonably accurate 5 day forecasts?

LOL, Your idea of "reasonably accurate" is different than mine!

Note use of the word 'reasonably'.
Take the Countryfile forecast for example. The Sunday forecast for Friday
is usually pretty good, at least for the general situation. Detail at that range
is difficult of course but this point is often stressed during the broadcasts.
It is relatively rare for it to go completely pear shaped.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

"danny(West Kent)" wrote in message
.. .
Hi Col,

I meant they are a waste of time to look at and rely on for a half decent
idea of the weather, at this moment in time anyway. But yes, I'm totally
positive to these LRF's for the reasons *you give* in your post.

OK, point taken. I don't think that anybody should treat a forecast out
beyond T+120 hrs as gospel however they shouldn't be ignored either
especially if you want to make rash statements like 'The weather will be
warm for the forseable future'.
It does depend on your definition of 'forseable' of course

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

How on earth do you think we arrived at the current situation of
having reasonably accurate 5 day forecasts?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html



But we dont have resonable accurate 5 day forecasts
where ever did you get that idea from !