Lets get this straight shall we. I for one do not believe Brian Gazes winter
forecast any more than you do. However during a recent thread you said and I
quote "Brian Gaze's winter forecast is sadly going wrong already when he
predicted a
settled first half of December."

I feel that since the models have backtracked in the past 24 hrs to a more
blocked situation then your comment was a tad unfair and a little
presumptious. As far as I can see Brians forecast of a settled first half of
December appears to be closer to the mark than your recent weekly forecast.

I am merely defending Brian for the first part of his forecast and I feel a
little uncomfortable when such a respected member of this group (myself
included) resorts to cheaps shots at a fellow enthusiast. As far as I'm
aware Brian also does not charge a fee.


Regards


Mr Blowman


"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Sean ?, I'm not going to get into a virility contest here :-)

I issued my forecast on thursday, I suggested a *gradual* change to zonal
conditions with lowish confidence on the details of the transition. I
admit that
it might take a bit longer for the south to become wetter (not Weds as
indicated) but certainly in the north the change is there (and we are
forecasting nationally after all, not just for SE England !).

The other point is the temperature, already at 1100 Saturday my
temperature is
reading 10.9 deg C so there is no doubt in my mind now that it is going to
stay
mild for the forseeable future (probably next 2 weeks at least).

The Met Office forecast a mild winter, I can see no reason or evidence to
doubt
that. Maybe Brian Gaze knows something the Met Office doesn't, if that is
the
case, where is his evidence ?

The Met Office could be wrong and Brian may be right (personally I hope
that is
the case because I love snow) but we will have to wait and see.

Finally all my forecasts are on a take it or leave basis done in my own
free
time (not a lot nowadays) , I do not pretend to be a weather company and I
fully
expect some to go wrong. Overall though I'm generally quite happy.

So what's your problem ?

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
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"Mr Blowman" S@not here.karoo.co.uk wrote in message
...
Mr Hand, scientific or not, based on todays 06z GFS and UKMO 0z I would
suggest Mr Gazes settled beginning to December seems closer to the mark
than
your recent effort.


Regards

Mr Blowman


"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Mr Blowman, thanks for that constructive scientific comment.

Just looked at the 18Z progs and they look pretty zonal to me after
midweek.
Mild too I might add.

Cheers,

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
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"Mr Blowman" S@not here.karoo.co.uk wrote in message
...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
================================================== ===============

This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather
may
unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any
actions
arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the
great
love
for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with
others.

================================================== ===============

Summary valid for Sunday 05/12/04 to Saturday 11/12/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 02/12/04 2100 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF,
UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence high that next week will gradually see a change to very
unsettled,
wet, and at times, very mild conditions in all areas. However,
confidence
only
low to moderate for the details of the change, but reasonably
confident of
the
sequence.

A ridge of high pressure should ensure a fine day in most places
on
Sunday. Mild
in freshening west to southwest winds which will become strong in
the
north.
Possibly exceptionally mild in parts of eastern England and
eastern
Scotland
with temperatures perhaps reaching 14 or 15 deg C. Rain from a
warm
front
is
likely to spread into western Scotland and northern Ireland later
in
the
day.

On Monday a very deep low will be running to the north of Scotland
giving
westerly gales and possibly storm force winds for a time in the
northern
Isles.
Scotland and northern Ireland will have rain followed by squally
showers.
Some
rain further south over England and Wales but southern Britain
likely
to
stay
dry, rather cloudy and mild in moderate west to southwest winds.

Tuesday looks like being another fine day in most places, but
possibly
rain
spreading into western areas later. Generally mild with winds
easing.

Wednesday is the day that significant rain is likely to spread
into
southern
Britain from yet another Atlantic low. All other areas seeing rain
too.
Turning
colder later as winds swing into the northwest bringing showers
which
will
possibly turn wintry over northern hills.

A fine and cold start to Thursday with more showers in places
exposed
to
the
northwest. Possibly a frost in sheltered southern and eastern
parts.
However,
more rain is likely to spread back in from the west in
strengthening
southwest
winds from another deepening Atlantic low. Turning milder again.

On Friday there is a low risk of a major storm crossing the UK.
More
likely
though, is another ordinary depression followed again by a return
to
colder
weather on Saturday in north to northwest winds with showers
turning
wintry on
northern hills.

This then sets the scene, until at least the third week, of a
generally
westerly
pattern with spells of mild, wet and windy weather followed by
short
colder
northerly interludes with wintry showers over high ground. Always
a
risk
as well
of major storms crossing Britain with the jet stream sinking south
with
time.

Cheers,

Will
Chief forecaster USW.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017
feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are
personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my
employer.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----



Is another reputable meteorologist's forecast about to go by the
wayside?

Sorry Will but your elitest attitude about a recent post may come
back
to
haunt you based on tonight progs!

Maybe you will think twice about your future elitest comments?


Regards


Mr Blowman

In forecasting, "No-one remembers when you get it right, but you aren't
allowed to forget if its wrong." Perhaps something to remember.


All the more reason why forecasts, whoever makes them, shouldn't be ridiculed
on the strength of model outputs which have proven to be very unreliable
beyond +96 hrs or even less.

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Please can you tell me what is likely to be wrong with my forecast for Sunday,
Monday and Tuesday then please ?

I've already admitted that Weds is likely to be wrong in the south due to upper
trough disruption (something which models handle badly).

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Mr Blowman" S@not here.karoo.co.uk wrote in message
...
Lets get this straight shall we. I for one do not believe Brian Gazes winter
forecast any more than you do. However during a recent thread you said and I
quote "Brian Gaze's winter forecast is sadly going wrong already when he
predicted a
settled first half of December."

I feel that since the models have backtracked in the past 24 hrs to a more
blocked situation then your comment was a tad unfair and a little
presumptious. As far as I can see Brians forecast of a settled first half of
December appears to be closer to the mark than your recent weekly forecast.

I am merely defending Brian for the first part of his forecast and I feel a
little uncomfortable when such a respected member of this group (myself
included) resorts to cheaps shots at a fellow enthusiast. As far as I'm
aware Brian also does not charge a fee.


Regards


Mr Blowman

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Looks like according to the 00Z GFS ensemble
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html
the 06Z and 12Z GFS runs that the trough disruption could cause quite a few
problems in Scotland, northern Ireland and maybe northern England on Thursday
and Friday. The likely problems are that the front will be slow moving with
continued pulses of very heavy rain running along the front in the warm
conveyor. This has obvious implications for flooding. Positioning of the front
is critical, particularly how much push there is on the upper trough before
disruption occurs, that depends on how much the upstream low deepens and moves
of course. It could end up further east putting SW England and Wales in the
firing line. SE England looks likely to escape with only patchy light rain. Wind
could be an issue in places too as pressure falls run along the front. Models
usually handle the all important details of disruption badly and I'm sure that
Martin and Jon would agree that upper trough disruptions can lead to some very
nasty conditions in the UK and are a forecasters nightmare.

But at least it will be mild :-)

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
================================================== ===============

This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising
from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

================================================== ===============

Summary valid for Sunday 05/12/04 to Saturday 11/12/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 02/12/04 2100 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence high that next week will gradually see a change to very unsettled,
wet, and at times, very mild conditions in all areas. However, confidence only
low to moderate for the details of the change, but reasonably confident of the
sequence.

A ridge of high pressure should ensure a fine day in most places on Sunday.
Mild
in freshening west to southwest winds which will become strong in the north.
Possibly exceptionally mild in parts of eastern England and eastern Scotland
with temperatures perhaps reaching 14 or 15 deg C. Rain from a warm front is
likely to spread into western Scotland and northern Ireland later in the day.

On Monday a very deep low will be running to the north of Scotland giving
westerly gales and possibly storm force winds for a time in the northern
Isles.
Scotland and northern Ireland will have rain followed by squally showers. Some
rain further south over England and Wales but southern Britain likely to stay
dry, rather cloudy and mild in moderate west to southwest winds.

Tuesday looks like being another fine day in most places, but possibly rain
spreading into western areas later. Generally mild with winds easing.

Wednesday is the day that significant rain is likely to spread into southern
Britain from yet another Atlantic low. All other areas seeing rain too.
Turning
colder later as winds swing into the northwest bringing showers which will
possibly turn wintry over northern hills.

A fine and cold start to Thursday with more showers in places exposed to the
northwest. Possibly a frost in sheltered southern and eastern parts. However,
more rain is likely to spread back in from the west in strengthening southwest
winds from another deepening Atlantic low. Turning milder again.

On Friday there is a low risk of a major storm crossing the UK. More likely
though, is another ordinary depression followed again by a return to colder
weather on Saturday in north to northwest winds with showers turning wintry on
northern hills.

This then sets the scene, until at least the third week, of a generally
westerly
pattern with spells of mild, wet and windy weather followed by short colder
northerly interludes with wintry showers over high ground. Always a risk as
well
of major storms crossing Britain with the jet stream sinking south with time.

Cheers,

Will
Chief forecaster USW.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-

Will Hand wrote:
snip
But at least it will be mild :-)

Will.
--

Is this Forecasters equivalent to "Have a nice day!" cringe

Joe
Wolverhampton

Brendan, please lie down and take some medication. :-)

Victor


Apologies for my strange postings last Thursday.
I had had a small drink or two that evening;-)

I'll try to contain myself in future

Brendan

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
at times, very mild conditions in all areas.

Yippee! I Love the mild weather.
Urgh!

Wednesday......
Turning colder later as winds swing into the northwest bringing showers
which
will possibly turn wintry over northern hills.

I HATE the cold

I find I *feel* less cold on a nice crisp sunny -2deg morning than an 8deg
cloudy drizzly day.

This then sets the scene, until at least the third week, of a generally
westerly
pattern with spells of mild, wet and windy weather...

Bring on those Atlantic Lows at this time of year.
Makes a change from those Blocking Highs that we seen to get recently.


Each to their own Personally, although I love a bit of snow, I'd be happy
with some cold sunniness. This endless grey is depressing, cold, and bugger
all use for getting my telescope out too!
James