Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
 

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This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

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Summary valid for Sunday 05/12/04 to Saturday 11/12/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 02/12/04 2100 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence high that next week will gradually see a change to very unsettled,
wet, and at times, very mild conditions in all areas. However, confidence only
low to moderate for the details of the change, but reasonably confident of the
sequence.

A ridge of high pressure should ensure a fine day in most places on Sunday. Mild
in freshening west to southwest winds which will become strong in the north.
Possibly exceptionally mild in parts of eastern England and eastern Scotland
with temperatures perhaps reaching 14 or 15 deg C. Rain from a warm front is
likely to spread into western Scotland and northern Ireland later in the day.

On Monday a very deep low will be running to the north of Scotland giving
westerly gales and possibly storm force winds for a time in the northern Isles.
Scotland and northern Ireland will have rain followed by squally showers. Some
rain further south over England and Wales but southern Britain likely to stay
dry, rather cloudy and mild in moderate west to southwest winds.

Tuesday looks like being another fine day in most places, but possibly rain
spreading into western areas later. Generally mild with winds easing.

Wednesday is the day that significant rain is likely to spread into southern
Britain from yet another Atlantic low. All other areas seeing rain too. Turning
colder later as winds swing into the northwest bringing showers which will
possibly turn wintry over northern hills.

A fine and cold start to Thursday with more showers in places exposed to the
northwest. Possibly a frost in sheltered southern and eastern parts. However,
more rain is likely to spread back in from the west in strengthening southwest
winds from another deepening Atlantic low. Turning milder again.

On Friday there is a low risk of a major storm crossing the UK. More likely
though, is another ordinary depression followed again by a return to colder
weather on Saturday in north to northwest winds with showers turning wintry on
northern hills.

This then sets the scene, until at least the third week, of a generally westerly
pattern with spells of mild, wet and windy weather followed by short colder
northerly interludes with wintry showers over high ground. Always a risk as well
of major storms crossing Britain with the jet stream sinking south with time.

Cheers,

Will
Chief forecaster USW.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
 

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
...with the jet stream sinking south with time.


Will, should we note that as maybe something to watch out for ?

Victor

Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
 

at times, very mild conditions in all areas.

Yippee! I Love the mild weather.

Wednesday......
Turning colder later as winds swing into the northwest bringing showers
which
will possibly turn wintry over northern hills.

I HATE the cold


This then sets the scene, until at least the third week, of a generally
westerly
pattern with spells of mild, wet and windy weather...

Bring on those Atlantic Lows at this time of year.
Makes a change from those Blocking Highs that we seen to get recently.


Brendan

Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
 

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
at times, very mild conditions in all areas.

Yippee! I Love the mild weather.

Wednesday......
Turning colder later as winds swing into the northwest bringing showers
which
will possibly turn wintry over northern hills.

I HATE the cold


This then sets the scene, until at least the third week, of a generally
westerly
pattern with spells of mild, wet and windy weather...

Bring on those Atlantic Lows at this time of year.
Makes a change from those Blocking Highs that we seen to get recently.



Brendan, please lie down and take some medication. :-)

Victor

Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
 

Cheers Will.

Looking good for cold weather predicted by Brian Gaze and Metcheck :-)

Maybe some snow for us in Bristol by the end of next week.

Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
 

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
...with the jet stream sinking south with time.


Will, should we note that as maybe something to watch out for ?

Victor

Things tend to get a bit nasty, Victor. December 1999 springs to mind, see
http://www.stvincent.ac.uk/Resources/Weather/News/
and
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...00/storms.html
and incase Mr Dixon's watching
http://www.rms.com/Publications/Lothar_Martin_Event.pdf

Jon.

Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
 

"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
...with the jet stream sinking south with time.


Will, should we note that as maybe something to watch out for ?

Victor



The jet often sinks south in a prolonged zonal spell in December. If you are a
straw clutcher it could mean a cold westerly over Christmas bringing substantial
snow to hills above 250m. But I wouldn't hold your breath at this stage Victor,
let's wait and see. It could just as easily be an exceptionally mild
southwesterly if the jet perturbs.

Will.
--

Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
 

"...with the jet stream sinking south with time.
Will, should we note that as maybe something to watch out for ?
Victor
Would that reinforce zonal conditions in the South but make it colder in the
North although still mainly westerly? Or would the synoptics depend on how
far South the jet was?

Dave

Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
 

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
...with the jet stream sinking south with time.


Will, should we note that as maybe something to watch out for ?

Victor

Things tend to get a bit nasty, Victor. December 1999 springs to mind, see
http://www.stvincent.ac.uk/Resources/Weather/News/
and

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...00/storms.html
and incase Mr Dixon's watching
http://www.rms.com/Publications/Lothar_Martin_Event.pdf

Jon.



Sheesh Jon, I remember those. That was a close call indeed for southern Britain.
Here in the SW you and I are always in the firing line from strong winter jets.
Occasionally we can get deep snow up here in a cold westerly gale, at least that
is what the locals tell me ! By the laws of chance another 16th October 1987, or
even worse, is inevitable :-(

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Next week's weather and further outlook beginning 05/12/04
 

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...


Sheesh Jon, I remember those. That was a close call indeed for southern
Britain.

It was and the duty chief forecaster (now retired) probably remembers it
well too (no names, no pack drills etc). Actually we took a bit of a
hammering on the south coast with flooding as well as some (relatively
minor) wind damage.

Here in the SW you and I are always in the firing line from strong winter
jets.
Occasionally we can get deep snow up here in a cold westerly gale, at
least that
is what the locals tell me !

Presumably that translates to the usual drizzly rain on the low ground in
the shadow of the Haytor rain shadow ? ;-)

Jon.