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Intentionally, I've put much too much detail in this forecast, Col, so
that I can either gloat to the fullest or hide my head in shame.

The different factors supporting this day's weather have all been
calculated individually. They almost all fall in line so that each
factor describes the same sort of weather in its own way.

SURFACE PRESSURE The 00hr forecast chart shows some low presssure in
the south of the North Sea. It's a small depression and it's moving
into the continent. It is near enough to affect the weather in the SE
of England. To the west of Britain and mainly to the SW of Britain, a
flat ridge of high pressure covers south Ireland and south-west
England. Its influence reaches over Ireland and to the SW of
Scotland. The high pressure ridge stretches eastwards. There is a
cold front down the west side of the North Sea area which has just
gone across the country.

The 6 AM forecast chart shows similar conditions except for low pressure
toshow itself far to the west of Scotland. The high pressure
continues to influence the south of the country as it moves eastwards
near the Channel.

The 12 noon chart has the isobars to the west of Scotland and Ireland
becoming cyclonically curved so that the wind becomes S to SW in the
west of the country. The high pressure still influences all east
England and SE Scotland.

The 6 PM chart has the low pressure to the W and NW of Scotland but now
a secondary depression starts to approach SW Ireland. High pressure
still influences the SE of England, but already fronts of the
depression are affecting western areas.

The midnight chart has low pressure to the NW of the country with a
trough southwards to SW Ireland. High pressure influence has left SE
Britain and has slipped into the the North Sea and near continent.

300 MB TOP The charts show a low area stretching almost E/W to the
N and NW of Scotland. The western part of the low is troughing as it
drifts southwards. On the south side of the low, the contours have a
small anticyclonic ridge northwards over the British Isles. The
contours are generally W over the country.

500 MB TOP The chart shows a trough in the contours down the North Sea
and anticyclonic curvature near Ireland. The midnight chart shows a
trough moving into the W of Ireland. Contours are generally NW backing
SW.

THICKNESS 1000-850 A cold trough comes down from the north and enters
the country over Western Scotland, stretching down as far as the
Channel. The nearest warm air lies out to the SW of Ireland. During
the day, the cold-air-trough moves a little eastwards and stretches from
central Scotland down to the Channel.

THICKNESS 850-700 The chart shows a cold trough stretching down from
Scotland to the Channel with warm air approaching SW Ireland. During
the day the cold trough moves eastwards to run down Britain's east
coast and the warm air stretches from SW England northwards to NW
Ireland.

RAIN Difficult at most times to be exact here. The morning chart
shows Britain to be dry except the SE of England. Also there is some
rain off NW Ireland. The evening chart shows SE England to be still
dry while showers can be expected elsewhere. A heavy area of rain is
shown to the SW of Ireland.

WIND Strong winds shown to be to the NW of Britain throughout the
day. This strong wind field extends southwards covering western
areas of Britain. Early on there is also a strong wind field to the NE
of Scotland, but this fades away before noon.

PRECIPITABLE WATER This is shown to be high over the SE of England
early on. At the same time, low values can be found over Scotland and W
Ireland. At 12 noon the chart shows low values over Britain with high
values over the North Sea. The midnight chart shows high values over
Ireland, SW England, Wales and W Scotland. Low values at midnight over
SE and E England.

CLOUD These charts have been left out because more study needs to be
made to make these charts reliable.

HUMIDITY Charts confirm the general trend. Interesting, the 100%
humidity area off SW Ireland in the 6PM chart which confirms the heavy
rain area at that time.

Well that's enough. I should imagine the general trend of weather for
5th May can be gathered from this information. The bad weather over the
south-east of England should clear away eastwards and the finer weather
over the rest of the country should cross eastwards. In the north of
the country, bad weather should set in pretty early and spread
eastwards and south-eastwards during the day.The extreme east and
south-east of England should remain dry. A noticeable feature, is an
area of heavy rain moving towards SW Ireland and SW England during the
evening.

Well, Col, using one of the newer methods of forecasting which is still
on trial till the end of the month, it will be interesting to see which
one of us has reason to gloat. For my own part I think the forecast will
be satisfactory. There hasn't been any great deviation of any factor
from the general trend, so from that point of view the forecast should
run well.

Thanks again for your interest, Col.

Cheers, Keith