Christmas Day forecast update
 

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Just had a look at all this morning's outputs and I have to say that we have the
best chance for a widespread white Christmas in the UK for years ! I rate it at
75% now. I see no reason to change my weekly forecast issued on Friday, however,
there could be a surprise for the south in that pressure falls to the SW could
induce a shallow Channel low bringing a spell of sleet and snow as the colder
air continues to advect south. If you calculate the thicknesses on the UKMO
output and of course looks at the GFS they all show deep cold air over the UK on
Xmas Day. So anywhere could get a spell of snow, even in normally mild areas
like Torbay and Penzance ! But obviously high ground and areas away from the
south coast have the greater chance.

Looking further ahead, it still looks like milder air will spread in on Boxing
day bringing a spell of snow turning to rain, much as my weekly forecast
suggested.

Old forecasting lags will also know that even though one can get snow in such
situations, you never get a severe blocked and prolonged cold spell with low
pressure near Scandinavia, the Atlantic will always easily bring in milder air.
But enjoy it while it lasts, it could be a memorable Christmas weatherwise.

Cheers,

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Christmas Day forecast update
 

Well I hope you are right Will because that will mean the Frosted Earth long
range(Really long range) issued Jan 04 emphasised a white Christmas this
year though in the form of sleet or snow showers and I have said over the
last few months on this News Group that it will be from a situation with
high pressure to the west and low to the north-east or east. In fact it
could well be a white New Year for many as well with a renewed surge of cold
air with a similar synoptic set up. My forecast for January issued a month
ago mentions a cold start to January.
A nice beginning to the morning here with lovely sunshine but a fresh north
east breeze at 14 mph and a temperature of 3.5C. Rain over night of 11.2mm.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon
www.frostedearth.com





"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Just had a look at all this morning's outputs and I have to say that we
have the
best chance for a widespread white Christmas in the UK for years ! I rate
it at
75% now
Cheers,

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

Christmas Day forecast update
 

Whether it snows or not may I wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and
a Happy New Year. I used this thread as I know it will be well read
throughout the day.

Thanks for your posts Will, always appreciated.


Keith (Southend)

***********************
Weather Home & Abroad
http://www.southendweather.net

On Sun, 19 Dec 2004 09:33:24 -0000, "Will Hand"
wrote:


================================================= ===================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================= ===================

Just had a look at all this morning's outputs and I have to say that we have the
best chance for a widespread white Christmas in the UK for years ! I rate it at
75% now. I see no reason to change my weekly forecast issued on Friday, however,
there could be a surprise for the south in that pressure falls to the SW could
induce a shallow Channel low bringing a spell of sleet and snow as the colder
air continues to advect south. If you calculate the thicknesses on the UKMO
output and of course looks at the GFS they all show deep cold air over the UK on
Xmas Day. So anywhere could get a spell of snow, even in normally mild areas
like Torbay and Penzance ! But obviously high ground and areas away from the
south coast have the greater chance.

Looking further ahead, it still looks like milder air will spread in on Boxing
day bringing a spell of snow turning to rain, much as my weekly forecast
suggested.

Old forecasting lags will also know that even though one can get snow in such
situations, you never get a severe blocked and prolonged cold spell with low
pressure near Scandinavia, the Atlantic will always easily bring in milder air.
But enjoy it while it lasts, it could be a memorable Christmas weatherwise.

Cheers,

Will.

Christmas Day forecast update
 

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Just had a look at all this morning's outputs and I have to say that we have
the
best chance for a widespread white Christmas in the UK for years ! I rate it
at
75% now. I see no reason to change my weekly forecast issued on Friday,
however,
there could be a surprise for the south in that pressure falls to the SW could
induce a shallow Channel low bringing a spell of sleet and snow as the colder
air continues to advect south.

Any chance of snow for North London on Christmas day?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

Christmas Day forecast update
 

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Just had a look at all this morning's outputs and I have to say that we
have the
best chance for a widespread white Christmas in the UK for years ! I rate
it at
75% now. I see no reason to change my weekly forecast issued on Friday,
however,
there could be a surprise for the south in that pressure falls to the SW
could
induce a shallow Channel low bringing a spell of sleet and snow as the
colder
air continues to advect south. If you calculate the thicknesses on the
UKMO
output and of course looks at the GFS they all show deep cold air over the
UK on
Xmas Day. So anywhere could get a spell of snow, even in normally mild
areas
like Torbay and Penzance ! But obviously high ground and areas away from
the
south coast have the greater chance.

Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "


Many models falling into line now. White Christmas or not, its going to be
very interesting from midweek onwards weatherwise, quite apart from anything
else.
Genuine reasons to be excited!
....I'd almost go so far as to say I'd be surprised if we didn't now get a
white xmas in this part of the country.
Alex

ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº
Alex Stephens Jr
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55º47'14", W3º55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº

Christmas Day forecast update
 

snip

Can anyone enlighten me on the chances of Northern Ireland seeing some snow
up to and around Xmas. I've been lucky to get a nice few days off this year
and would enjoy some snow.

Dermot.

Christmas Day forecast update
 

"Dermot" wrote in message
...
snip

Can anyone enlighten me on the chances of Northern Ireland seeing some snow
up to and around Xmas. I've been lucky to get a nice few days off this year
and would enjoy some snow.

Dermot.


Dermot, it is going to turn mild for a time next week and then get very cold in
northern Ireland during Christmas Eve. 90% chance of snow lying sometime
Christmas Eve - Boxing Day.

Cheers,

Will.
--

Christmas Day forecast update
 

Surely you'll get a share under the EEC directive guidlines





"Dermot" wrote in message
...
snip

Can anyone enlighten me on the chances of Northern Ireland seeing some
snow
up to and around Xmas. I've been lucky to get a nice few days off this
year
and would enjoy some snow.

Dermot.

Christmas Day forecast update
 

Mmm, Driving to Southern Germany xmas day night can you hold the white stuff
off please for a while :)

Merry Christmas to all and thanks for an informative and entertaining year
:)

Robbie

"lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...
Surely you'll get a share under the EEC directive guidlines





"Dermot" wrote in message
...
snip

Can anyone enlighten me on the chances of Northern Ireland seeing some
snow
up to and around Xmas. I've been lucky to get a nice few days off this
year
and would enjoy some snow.

Dermot.

Christmas Day forecast update
 

Many models falling into line now. White Christmas or not, its going to be
very interesting from midweek onwards weatherwise, quite apart from
anything else.
Genuine reasons to be excited!
...I'd almost go so far as to say I'd be surprised if we didn't now get a
white xmas in this part of the country.
Alex

And todays GFS run shows an unusually cold North by North Westerly into
the start of 2005, with a Greenland high showing signs of taking over!
I know they're often wrong at such long range, but it's a tantalising
thought.
It would be nice to hear "light icing" being mentioned on the shipping
forecast again.

ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº
Alex Stephens Jr
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55º47'14", W3º55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº