I've read a few similar articles about the insurance industry, but it is
hard to separate out the signal due to climate change from the (probably
much larger) effect of economic growth and vulnerability.

James

A very good point. After all, if you build houses on flood
plains you don't need increased rainfall and runoff to cause problems.
This also applies, in a rougher kind of way, to the Third World, where
more marginal land is increasingly used or inhabited, due partly to
population increase.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

"James Annan" wrote in message
oups.com...

I've not managed to get any reply out of him at all, still less a bet.
For someone who claims a success rate of 80% or more with his
forecasts, he seems remarkably reluctant to make any money out of this
one. Could it be ... that he knows it is wrong?


It would be curious to compare his supposed success rate with those of the
mainstream flock.

"Karatepe" wrote in message
...
James Annan wrote:
It's controversial because most
weather forecasters do not believe there is any merit in his principles
(he claims that the forecasts are based on solar output) or his
forecasts.

So the Sun has nothing to do wth driving the planets climate then? LOL

That is a laughable conclusion, indeed. But it the result of reading
comprehension problems on your own part.

--
Coby Beck
(remove #\Space "coby 101 @ bigpond . com")

James Annan wrote:
Piers Corbyn runs Weatheraction, an independent and rather
controversial weather forecasting operation which claims to be able to
make useful long-term predictions. It's controversial because most
weather forecasters do not believe there is any merit in his
principles (he claims that the forecasts are based on solar output)
or his forecasts.

On a long term basis there is something in it, but on a day-to-day basis,
sorry, Piers is completely barking...
--
Rob Overfield
Hull

James wrote:
"James Annan" wrote in message
oups.com...

I've not managed to get any reply out of him at all, still less a
bet. For someone who claims a success rate of 80% or more with his
forecasts, he seems remarkably reluctant to make any money out of
this one. Could it be ... that he knows it is wrong?


It would be curious to compare his supposed success rate with those
of the mainstream flock.

Who'd care? Because his forcasts are so vague, you can read anything in
them you want to. There's little in them you could actually use as a
comparison, no hard numbers (last I saw) to line up against the other
forecasts...
--
Rob Overfield
Hull

In article .com,
says...
You may have to work very very hard, James, to find an "elusive
consensus-busting sceptic who is prepared to make a forecast, and stand
behind it." However, one can reasonably infer that there are some
organizations that are placing large bets on the effects of global
warming.

Please see:
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=770608

Dropping all those contracts must have cost Allstate PLENTY,
but they predict more bad weather in Florida. This big decision
was not made without knowledge of global warming.



Highly unlikely that global warming had any impact on the decision.
Insurance companies have developed the habit of not renewing or not
issuing new homeowner policies after they get claims. It's been a
problem in some places for a while

http://www.realestatejournal.com/buy...ance/20020522-
oster.html

Oklahoma passed a law to prevent nonrenewal based on a single weather-
related claim after a lot of people lost coverage after an ice storm.

Harold

--
Harold Brooks
hebrooks87 hotmail.com

"Rob Overfield" wrote in message
...
James wrote:
"James Annan" wrote in message
oups.com...

I've not managed to get any reply out of him at all, still less a
bet. For someone who claims a success rate of 80% or more with his
forecasts, he seems remarkably reluctant to make any money out of
this one. Could it be ... that he knows it is wrong?


It would be curious to compare his supposed success rate with those
of the mainstream flock.

Who'd care? Because his forcasts are so vague, you can read anything in
them you want to. There's little in them you could actually use as a
comparison, no hard numbers (last I saw) to line up against the other
forecasts...
--
Rob Overfield
Hull

Sounds like general long term stuff so they are not going to contain temps
by the degree. But then any long term forecast doesn't do that anyway I
don't think. Hell, the Farmer's Almanac claims close to an 80% success rate.

"James" wrote in message
...



Sounds like general long term stuff so they are not going to contain temps
by the degree. But then any long term forecast doesn't do that anyway I
don't think. Hell, the Farmer's Almanac claims close to an 80% success rate.

Define 'sucess'

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

Rob Overfield wrote:

James wrote:

"James Annan" wrote in message
groups.com...

I've not managed to get any reply out of him at all, still less a
bet. For someone who claims a success rate of 80% or more with his
forecasts, he seems remarkably reluctant to make any money out of
this one. Could it be ... that he knows it is wrong?


It would be curious to compare his supposed success rate with those
of the mainstream flock.


Who'd care? Because his forcasts are so vague, you can read anything in
them you want to. There's little in them you could actually use as a
comparison, no hard numbers (last I saw) to line up against the other
forecasts...

Well, he does claim an 80% success rate against the bookies using odds
set by the UK Met Office (at least Robert Hanson does on his behalf on
http://www.foresight.org/Updates/Upd...date10.1.html).

Now I would be the first to agree that if he really does reliably win
against odds set by the Met Office, his forecasts have more skill for
the appropriate time scale/variables/locations (depends on the details
of the bet, and it also depends on the odds set by the bookies actually
being a valid interpretation of the forecasts).

Which is why his point-blank refusal to contemplate a bet on his climate
forecast points very strongly towards the conclusion that he knows it is
just an attention-seeking lie, designed to enhance his reputation as a
maverick and gain some publicity.

James