"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
In message , JPG
writes

They forecast that by 2050 summer temperatures in the south-east will be
1.5 to
3C warmer than today, while average summer rainfall could fall by 35 per
cent.
If the current rate of warming continues, summers could be as much as 6C
warmer
by the 2080s.

I'd be interested to see the mean surface pressure and upper contour
patterns that go with these predictions. Warmer and drier suggests an
increase in the frequency of anticyclonic southerlies i.e. relatively
high pressure over the near continent. That might mean that further east
there would be a cooling due to a higher frequency of northerlies.

But don't forget that the north will warm too. So the northerlies will not
be as cold as they are today.

I have no problem with the theory that global warming will result in
climate change (and undoubtedly is already) but I have a lot of
difficulty in accepting that the subject is sufficiently well understood
to enable fairly detailed predictions of the changes that will occur at
a spot location (on a global scale SE England is a spot location).

This is the first time I recall the changes to the British climate from
global warming being discussed on this newsgroup. It is not
surprising then, that you think no one has given it much thought.
However there are scientists who have been thinking about those
problems for a considerable time. In 1991, nearly 15 years ago,
the Department of the Environment published a book entitled "The
Potential Effects of Climate Change in the United Kingdom".

Basically what will happen is the climate zones will move north,
with the Sahara returning to savannah, and the north shore of the
Mediterranean becoming a desert. (The current drought in Spain
is only a taster.) The Mediterranean climate belt will move north
into the south of England. Meanwhile the increase in global
temperature will have resulted in more evaporation from the oceans
and hence there will be more frequent and heavier rain storms in
that receive rain..

Cheers, Alastair.

Felly sgrifennodd
Alastair McDonald :
This is the first time I recall the changes to the British climate from
global warming being discussed on this newsgroup.

It has been discussed quite recently, but in the context of GW switching
the gulf stream off.

The Mediterranean climate belt will move north
into the south of England.

This assumes the above doesn't happen. I suspect all we can say is that
it won't be the same as we're traditionally used to (whatever that is!).
So I can hope for either an olive grove on the side of our mountain, or
a ski resort. Hmm maybe it's not such a bad thing

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk

"Adrian D. Shaw" wrote in message
...
Felly sgrifennodd
Alastair McDonald :
This is the first time I recall the changes to the British climate from
global warming being discussed on this newsgroup.

It has been discussed quite recently, but in the context of GW switching
the gulf stream off.

I was talking about the science, not the wild speculation of a few
oceanographers who do not know the first thing about weather. They
seem to think that the because the THC is global it can affect the
climate globally. What they fail to understand is the half of the flow
of the THC is at the bottom of the ocean where it has no effect on
the climate what so ever.

They are unaware that it is the diversion of the westerlies by the
Rockies over the warmer seas of the souhtern North Atlantic which
causes the prevailing south westerly air flow over the British Isles -
not the Coriolis effect. And it is this air flow which keeps Britain
warmer than Newfoundland, not the North Atlantic Drift which passes
to the north of Britain.

The idea that global warming will make Britain colder is just
pseudoscience. I thought that the film "The Day After Tomorrow"
demostrated that!

The Mediterranean climate belt will move north
into the south of England.

This assumes the above doesn't happen. I suspect all we can say is that
it won't be the same as we're traditionally used to (whatever that is!).
So I can hope for either an olive grove on the side of our mountain, or
a ski resort. Hmm maybe it's not such a bad thing

Well you could buy a ready made ski resort in Scotland. I believe they are
going cheap now that the snow is diappearing :-) But if I were you, I would
be looking for a south facing slope on a Welsh mountain side, and start
taking lessons in viticulture.

Cheers, Alastair.

In message , Alastair McDonald
k writes

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
In message , JPG
writes

They forecast that by 2050 summer temperatures in the south-east will be
1.5 to
3C warmer than today, while average summer rainfall could fall by 35 per
cent.
If the current rate of warming continues, summers could be as much as 6C
warmer
by the 2080s.

I'd be interested to see the mean surface pressure and upper contour
patterns that go with these predictions. Warmer and drier suggests an
increase in the frequency of anticyclonic southerlies i.e. relatively
high pressure over the near continent. That might mean that further east
there would be a cooling due to a higher frequency of northerlies.

But don't forget that the north will warm too. So the northerlies will not
be as cold as they are today.

I have no problem with the theory that global warming will result in
climate change (and undoubtedly is already) but I have a lot of
difficulty in accepting that the subject is sufficiently well understood
to enable fairly detailed predictions of the changes that will occur at
a spot location (on a global scale SE England is a spot location).

This is the first time I recall the changes to the British climate from
global warming being discussed on this newsgroup. It is not
surprising then, that you think no one has given it much thought.
However there are scientists who have been thinking about those
problems for a considerable time. In 1991, nearly 15 years ago,
the Department of the Environment published a book entitled "The
Potential Effects of Climate Change in the United Kingdom".

My reading is a little bit wider than merely u.s.w. :-)


Basically what will happen is the climate zones will move north,
with the Sahara returning to savannah, and the north shore of the
Mediterranean becoming a desert. (The current drought in Spain
is only a taster.) The Mediterranean climate belt will move north
into the south of England. Meanwhile the increase in global
temperature will have resulted in more evaporation from the oceans
and hence there will be more frequent and heavier rain storms in
that receive rain..

What I assume you are saying is that the sub-tropical ridge will move
polewards, presumably in each hemisphere. The climate zones exist as a
result of the large-scale mean pressure patterns, not the other way
round.

If the sub-tropical ridges move polewards, what happens to the tropical
belt? Does it merely get wider? I find it hard to visualise that there
could be such a huge increase in the area covered by the equatorial
barotropic airmass

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

"John Hall" wrote in message


I wouldn't have thought it would make much difference to either
if there is only the predicted 5-10mm.

It will help, but only a little.

It's about 67 cubic yards per acre, max., isn't it? Something like 50
tons?

That'll just about wet the grass. It would have to rain every day like
that for the rest of summer for it not to damage the trees.



--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

This is the first time I recall the changes to the British climate from
global warming being discussed on this newsgroup.

Not so - but some may fear responding, ostriches can have a vicious peck you
know. ;-)

Dave

Quoting from message
posted on 15 Jun 2005 by Adrian D. Shaw
I would like to add:

Felly sgrifennodd
Alastair McDonald :

The Mediterranean climate belt will move north
into the south of England.

This assumes the above doesn't happen. I suspect all we can say is that
it won't be the same as we're traditionally used to (whatever that is!).
So I can hope for either an olive grove on the side of our mountain, or
a ski resort. Hmm maybe it's not such a bad thing

There were some naturalists on Radio4 the other night (?Monday) becoming
quite excited about the change in flora and fauna, such as the possible
return of the Camberwell Beauty butterfly.

They were eagerly anticipating a rise in temperature - made a change from
the usual doom and gloom merchants.

--
....ElaineJ... Briallen Gifts/Cards catalogue at http://www.briallen.co.uk
....Kinetic... Corn Dollies, Cards, Coasters, Mousemats, Kids' Tshirts
...StrongArm.. Jones' Pages at http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/ejones
....RISC PC... Corwen, North Wales; Steam Traction;CMMGB&Yukon Volunteers.

I really hope someone else who knows better than me will comment on this
(below); it certainly goes against a lot that I've been taught in the past.

Adrian

Felly sgrifennodd
Alastair McDonald :
I was talking about the science, not the wild speculation of a few
oceanographers who do not know the first thing about weather. They
seem to think that the because the THC is global it can affect the
climate globally. What they fail to understand is the half of the flow
of the THC is at the bottom of the ocean where it has no effect on
the climate what so ever.

They are unaware that it is the diversion of the westerlies by the
Rockies over the warmer seas of the souhtern North Atlantic which
causes the prevailing south westerly air flow over the British Isles -
not the Coriolis effect. And it is this air flow which keeps Britain
warmer than Newfoundland, not the North Atlantic Drift which passes
to the north of Britain.

The idea that global warming will make Britain colder is just
pseudoscience. I thought that the film "The Day After Tomorrow"
demostrated that!

The Mediterranean climate belt will move north
into the south of England.

This assumes the above doesn't happen. I suspect all we can say is that
it won't be the same as we're traditionally used to (whatever that is!).
So I can hope for either an olive grove on the side of our mountain, or
a ski resort. Hmm maybe it's not such a bad thing

Well you could buy a ready made ski resort in Scotland. I believe they are
going cheap now that the snow is diappearing :-) But if I were you, I would
be looking for a south facing slope on a Welsh mountain side, and start
taking lessons in viticulture.

Cheers, Alastair.

(the first time I've ever seen fit to top-post!)

--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk

In article , (Adrian D. Shaw) writes:

I really hope someone else who knows better than me will comment on this
(below); it certainly goes against a lot that I've been taught in the past.

Adrian

Felly sgrifennodd
Alastair McDonald :

I was talking about the science, not the wild speculation of a few
oceanographers who do not know the first thing about weather. They
seem to think that the because the THC is global it can affect the
climate globally. What they fail to understand is the half of the flow
of the THC is at the bottom of the ocean where it has no effect on
the climate what so ever.

They are unaware that it is the diversion of the westerlies by the
Rockies over the warmer seas of the souhtern North Atlantic which
causes the prevailing south westerly air flow over the British Isles -
not the Coriolis effect. And it is this air flow which keeps Britain
warmer than Newfoundland, not the North Atlantic Drift which passes
to the north of Britain.


As I have said before, I am not a meteorologist - nor a climatologist - but
I do help produce the world's most accurate time series of SSTs, so I have
an interest in, and some knowledge of, the subject. That does not make me
someone who "knows better than Adrian", but I will comment anyway:-)

What Alastair says about the effect of the NAD on the climate of the UK is
substantially correct, AFAIK. The energy provided by the air flow greatly
exceeds the energy provided by the NAD. If the THC shuts down, there will
be a cooling effect on the UK climate, but it may not be sufficient to
cancel out the warming effect of increased CO2, even in the short term. And
in the longer term, of course, it will become even less significant.

However, if the THC shuts down I would expect the effects to be global -
precisely because it is a global event - but I wouldn't attempt to predict
what those effects were because I am not an oceanographer either. New, or
amended, circulations would result, I presume...

No oceanographers have ever posted to this newsgroup, I believe, so we are
left speculating on this aspect with little expertise.

Cheers,

keith



---
Iraq: 6.5 thousand million pounds, 80 UK lives, and counting...
100,000+ civilian casualties, largely of coalition bombing...

"Adrian D. Shaw" wrote in message
...
I really hope someone else who knows better than me will comment on this
(below); it certainly goes against a lot that I've been taught in the past.

Adrian

You might be interested in this
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=159

But if the warming does cause a slowdown in the THC, and that cools the
northern hemisphere, then with a cooler NH the THC will start up again :-).

So those, in the discussion I have link to above, would be better off arguing
about the number of angels dancing on the head of a pin, IMHO :-(

Cheers, Alastair.