"Les Crossan" wrote in
message . uk...
The livecam is throwing up a box saying 'Please use Internet Explorer 5 or
higher'! No I jolly well won't. Grr. (:

Capture page is ok in FF.

Firefox will run java / javascript can you fix it joe??

Les

It's in beta stages ;-) In other words not had time to give it a look over,
need a website first, all to be sorted this summer I hope with a little
help.

Joe

PS Very muggy with Sc turning into Cu.

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

For those wanting a webcam from the East Midlands, I have turned mine on.

Camera points N by the way.

Joe

Everyone -

The 12z gfs run is showing LI -7 CAPE = 2500 for the East Midlands
tomorrow 18z with significant CAPE /LI from Southhampton to the Scottish
Borders. I've never seen a chart like this for the UK before. Ooerr.

http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3011.html

Les

Joe Hunt wrote:
"Les Crossan" wrote in
message . uk...



--
Les Crossan,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear
54.95N 1.5W
Home of the Wallsend StormCam and the Backup USW FAQ -
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

The HuntCam isn't showing much...

Les

Joe Hunt wrote:
"Les Crossan" wrote in
message . uk...

GFS 06z run is showing li=-6 and CAPE in thousands for the A38 corridor
@12z tomorrow and li=-7 and CAPE in thousands for the A38 corridor @18z.
Could be an interesting day for those who live in the East Midlands but
even here in NE England CAPE is significant. Now watch it all go into damp
squib mode @ 1159z tomorrow. I'm watching intently and readying myself for
a chase down the a38 - as waghorn says mcs / multicell but not supercell
but still a good chance of large hail, torrential rain, lots of lightning
and tornadoes (:

Les

Waghorn wrote:


For those wanting a webcam from the East Midlands, I have turned mine on.
Location is in my signature. For a real-time view click -
http://wymeswold.gotdns.com/
For a single image click -
http://wymeswold.gotdns.com/Jpeg/CamImg.jpg

NB You will need to accept a download from Orite for the streaming view.

Joe
--
Wymeswold, Leicestershire 78m asl
http://www.streetmap.co.uk/newmap.sr...9990&ay=323625



--
Les Crossan,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear
54.95N 1.5W
Home of the Wallsend StormCam and the Backup USW FAQ -
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

"Les Crossan" wrote in
message . uk...
Everyone -

The 12z gfs run is showing LI -7 CAPE = 2500 for the East Midlands
tomorrow 18z with significant CAPE /LI from Southhampton to the Scottish
Borders. I've never seen a chart like this for the UK before. Ooerr.

http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3011.html

Les

Joe Hunt wrote:
"Les Crossan" wrote in
message . uk...



--
Les Crossan,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear
54.95N 1.5W
Home of the Wallsend StormCam and the Backup USW FAQ -
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

The GFS Cape calculations are highly unlikely to be correct. They are based
on =highly fictictious= Dewpoint's of 23/24C tomorrow afternoon across
England. Highly unlikely to come off. Therefore CAPE and L.I Calculations
will be in error.

TD of 18-19C (maybe 20) would be more realistic and extrapolating them would
give more realistic CAPE values across England.

Little in the way of upper forcing is present, but convergence is present
across the Midlands and parts of N England tomorrow and a shortwave
approaches the west. Potenital for -loaded gun- scenario tomorrow from SE
Wales NE across Mids to Lincs. Temps of 30C TD of 19C releases large amounts
of CAPE and some scattered severe storms are possible running NE from Forest
of Dean to Lincs. Zone shifting east to North of London during the evening.
Tops could easily reach the tropopause which no doubt would release moderate
size hail.


Regards
Paul

Yeah I know Paul but I can but dream. I'm still debating with swmbo
whether I should pay the A38 a visit tomorrow especially as i'm up to my
eyes in server work here ):

Cheers -

Les

PJB wrote:
"Les Crossan" wrote in
message . uk...

Everyone -

The 12z gfs run
--
Les Crossan,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear
54.95N 1.5W
Home of the Wallsend StormCam and the Backup USW FAQ -
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

"PJB"
The GFS Cape calculations are highly unlikely to be correct. They are
based
on =highly fictictious= Dewpoint's of 23/24C tomorrow afternoon across
England. Highly unlikely to come off. Therefore CAPE and L.I Calculations
will be in error.
.........................
TD of 18-19C (maybe 20) would be more realistic and extrapolating them
would
give more realistic CAPE values across England.
.................................................. ............................................
Paul



How do you rate the NMM Paul?It's suggesting a much more realistic (IMO)
~750J/Kg tomorrow afternoon,

--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

Hi David

The forecast soundings from the NMM are not great, but as a whole the CAPR
/LI charts are slightly more "believable" !!! TRouble is the model is
initialised using the GFS boundary data so make of that what you will !!


Cheers
Paul

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...

"PJB"
The GFS Cape calculations are highly unlikely to be correct. They are
based
on =highly fictictious= Dewpoint's of 23/24C tomorrow afternoon across
England. Highly unlikely to come off. Therefore CAPE and L.I
Calculations
will be in error.
.........................
TD of 18-19C (maybe 20) would be more realistic and extrapolating them
would
give more realistic CAPE values across England.

.................................................. ...........................
..................
Paul



How do you rate the NMM Paul?It's suggesting a much more realistic (IMO)
~750J/Kg tomorrow afternoon,

--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

"Waghorn" Situation now looking more interesting.
Now for an objective view-
http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/outlooks.cgi

ATM I can't believe the cap won't break tomorrow afternoon sometime,and
where it does the resulting convection must be deep and possibly severe.Lack
of strong winds aloft might be a limiting factor.
..
the 19Z WV from Cheshire-
http://west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/e2.asp
is bewilderingly complex with multiple PV anomalies,short waves, west of the
British Isles and W/SW of Biscay.Waves forming along the CF will make
things...erm...very difficult / very interesting,

--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

"Waghorn" wrote in message
...

"Waghorn" Situation now looking more interesting.
Now for an objective view-
http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/outlooks.cgi

ATM I can't believe the cap won't break tomorrow afternoon sometime,and
where it does the resulting convection must be deep and possibly
severe.Lack
of strong winds aloft might be a limiting factor.
.
the 19Z WV from Cheshire-
http://west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/e2.asp
is bewilderingly complex with multiple PV anomalies,short waves, west of
the
British Isles and W/SW of Biscay.Waves forming along the CF will make
things...erm...very difficult / very interesting,

--
regards,
David

add '17' to Waghorne to reply

Certainly potential for strong storms to develop. CAP looks quite strong on
00Z Herstmonceux Ascent (given continued warm advection during the day -
this may be hard to break) CAP is less in evidence further north and with
continued development of convegence line from Bristol to Humber this should
prove the main focus for development of afternoon storms. Upper level
dynamics are not great but TW values are high (by UK standards) 19-20C
Dewpoints of similar order are already bring reported from Bristol to
Manchester to Midlands.

If upper forcing was a little stronger (better organised) and the shape of
the upper flow a little different then today could have proved very severe
indeed.

Rgds
Paul