John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Norman Lynagh writes:
Don't forget that over much of the country June is the driest, or one
of the driest months of the year, on average, and that there is a
significant upwards jump in average rainfall amounts in July with a
further increase in August. The amount of increase from June to July
increases across the country from SE to NW. July and August are
typically unsettled. Lengthy spells of warm, dry, settled weather in
those months are the exception rather than the rule.

That certainly used to be the case, but things seemed to have changed
rather over the last couple of decades, with our Julys and Augusts
having tended to become drier, at least in the south. At least, that
is my strong impression, without having done any research to back it
up.

I was involved, in a minor way, with some research into the weather of the
Nineties, back around the turn of the millennium. It suggested that in that
period, July and August had shown, relative to 61-90, higher temperatures
with an increase in sunshine hours and some lowering of rainfall. However,
it concluded that June during the same period was more often than not
indifferent.

Reference
Wright, PB 2000: Weather of the Nineties; Westwind Services; ISBN
0-9539710-0-7
--
Rob Overfield
Hull

1971 - 2000 rainfall in mm for June, July & August

Yeovilton 57 49 56
Nettlecombe 59 43 66
Teignmouth 51 36 56
Bude 57 55 70
St Mawgan 65 56 73

The rainfall for these areas shows that July is the driest summer month with
August having a little more that June. Yeovilton has August as drier than
June, but only just.

I don't have figures to hand for the Exe Valley but I am sure that for this
particular area, June, July and August are generally the driest months of
the year.
__________________
Nick G
Thorverton, Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
In message , Nick G
writes
Don't forget that over much of the country June is the driest, or one of
the driest months of the year, on average, and that there is a
significant
upwards jump in average rainfall amounts in July with a further increase
in August. The amount of increase from June to July increases across the
country from SE to NW.

Down here in Devon, this June seems to have been one of the best I have
ever
known. My memory of most Junes is cool and unsettled with 1983, 1989, 1995
and 2003 being the exceptions.

Studying the rainfall patterns for this part of the world, July and August
are the driest months, reasons given by some literature is that it is due
to
less thundery activity when compared to the rest of the UK. I would be
more
inclined to think that it was due to the SW of England being nearer and
under slightly more influence of that oh-so-close Azores high pressure
which
seems to haunt with intent just to the south and west of the UK during
these
months.
__________________
Nick G
Thorverton, Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

I don't have up-to-date figures immediately to hand but the 1931-1960
rainfall averages (mm) for June/July/August in your neck of the woods a

St Mary's (Scilly) 49 61 64
Bude 48 72 75
Exeter 48 55 69
Falmouth 58 72 77
Hartland Pt 50 76 83
Ilfracombe 56 82 92
Newquay 47 72 70
Plymouth 53 70 77

For 1931-60 June was clearly the driest of the 3 summer months. There may
well have been a change in more recent years - Figures anyone?

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

Hi Norman

After looking at the yearly rainfall amount (1971 - 2000) for many places
around England, it seems that July is generally the driest month with a very
bizarre but pronounced increase in rainfall for June, Greenwich is a typical
example:

Mar 42
Apr 45
May 47
Jun 53
Jul 38
Aug 47
Sep 57
__________________
Nick G
Thorverton, Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl
"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
In message , Nick G
writes
Don't forget that over much of the country June is the driest, or one of
the driest months of the year, on average, and that there is a
significant
upwards jump in average rainfall amounts in July with a further increase
in August. The amount of increase from June to July increases across the
country from SE to NW.

Down here in Devon, this June seems to have been one of the best I have
ever
known. My memory of most Junes is cool and unsettled with 1983, 1989, 1995
and 2003 being the exceptions.

Studying the rainfall patterns for this part of the world, July and August
are the driest months, reasons given by some literature is that it is due
to
less thundery activity when compared to the rest of the UK. I would be
more
inclined to think that it was due to the SW of England being nearer and
under slightly more influence of that oh-so-close Azores high pressure
which
seems to haunt with intent just to the south and west of the UK during
these
months.
__________________
Nick G
Thorverton, Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

I don't have up-to-date figures immediately to hand but the 1931-1960
rainfall averages (mm) for June/July/August in your neck of the woods a

St Mary's (Scilly) 49 61 64
Bude 48 72 75
Exeter 48 55 69
Falmouth 58 72 77
Hartland Pt 50 76 83
Ilfracombe 56 82 92
Newquay 47 72 70
Plymouth 53 70 77

For 1931-60 June was clearly the driest of the 3 summer months. There may
well have been a change in more recent years - Figures anyone?

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

In message , Nick G
writes
Hi Norman

After looking at the yearly rainfall amount (1971 - 2000) for many places
around England, it seems that July is generally the driest month with a very
bizarre but pronounced increase in rainfall for June, Greenwich is a typical
example:

Mar 42
Apr 45
May 47
Jun 53
Jul 38
Aug 47
Sep 57


Yes - A very different picture from the 1931-1960 averages. All this
really proves is that averages over a particular 30-year period are not
a reliable guide to what will happen over the following 30-year period.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

wrote:
Also encouragingly reminiscent of 1996, when October arrived three
months early before the weather realised it was midsummer again and an
average mix of highs and lows returned for the rest of the summer, with
two week-long heatwaves still to come and generally acceptable weather
the rest of the time. I'd say 1996 was a typical northwest European
summer.

Nick

2001 was, and still is, the benchmark for a "typical" summer in these
parts in my view. Long stretches of indifferent weather with showers,
clouds and intermittent sun, punctuated by a few 3-5 day bursts of heat
which culminated in more than a couple of decent thunderstorms. Just
when I was beginning to despair the next hot spell arrived.

1996 suddenly turned from a very cold, dull May to a hot early June,
not really "typical", although July and August did have weather broadly
similar to 2001.

Edmund

Nick G wrote:
Hi Norman

After looking at the yearly rainfall amount (1971 - 2000) for many places
around England, it seems that July is generally the driest month with a very
bizarre but pronounced increase in rainfall for June, Greenwich is a typical
example:

Mar 42
Apr 45
May 47
Jun 53
Jul 38
Aug 47
Sep 57
__________________

July is now the driest month of the year here at Warlingham,
Surrey (1983-2004). Figures:-

Jan 93
Feb 60
Mar 52
Apr 68
May 56
Jun 53
Jul 48
Aug 57
Sep 66
Oct 97
Nov 87
Dec 82

I would not have believed this when I first took a serious interest
in the weather in the mid-50's. The figures estimated by Roger Brugge
(COL) for 1971-2000 for this site show an even more pronounced dip in
July.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey. TQ3516 5954, 556 ft.

"Norman Lynagh" wrote
I don't have up-to-date figures immediately to hand but the 1931-1960
rainfall averages (mm) for June/July/August in your neck of the woods a

St Mary's (Scilly) 49 61 64
Bude 48 72 75
Exeter 48 55 69
Falmouth 58 72 77
Hartland Pt 50 76 83
Ilfracombe 56 82 92
Newquay 47 72 70
Plymouth 53 70 77

For 1931-60 June was clearly the driest of the 3 summer months. There may
well have been a change in more recent years - Figures anyone?

July has become much much drier since about 1970, and August has
followed suit to a more limited extent. The change is evident in all parts
of the UK but is strongest in southern England.

Decadal averages for E&W are as follows (in mm):
Period June July Aug
1931-40 61.0 85.9 59.7
1941-50 56.9 70.0 89.8
1951-60 66.9 79.3 98.7
1961-70 61.3 72.1 84.8
1971-80 66.4 57.9 74.8
1981-90 68.5 56.8 71.4
1991-00 69.3 57.1 70.8
1995-04 67.7 59.2 76.5

Based on 30-year means in the EWP series, July was the wettest
month of the year (yes, wetter than Oct, Nov, or Dec) between
1801-30, but was the driest month of the year in both 1961-90 and
1971-2000. No other month has appeared at both extremes.

Also, July rainfall for overlapping 30-year periods was consistently
between 85 and 90mm for about almost a century until the 1850s,
over 50% above its recent level. No other month has varied that
much (although March has come close).

The drying out of July and August is consistent with some climate
change model predictions ... until we remember that it began at the
coldest point in the mid-20th century Micro Ice Age (that is, within
two or three years of the maximum ice extent in the Iceland/
Greenland region), and clearly has stabilized or even reversed since
the late-1980s when the warming of July and August became so
apparent.

If you look at http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/06.htm it seems
that June rainfall varies inversely with June westerliness, which may appear
counterintuitive ... however, the decade to decade variations are really
very small and a single wet or dry month can make the difference between
a relatively wet decade and a relatively dry one.

http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/07.htm suggests the opposite,
until you look at the pressure line which ties in well with low pressure
and plentiful rain in the 1930s, and relatively high pressure from
the early-70s until recently.

http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/08.htm also indicates a loose
tie-in between mean decadal sea-level pressure and August rainfall.

Philip Eden

"Norman Lynagh" wrote I
don't have up-to-date figures immediately to hand but the 1931-1960
rainfall averages (mm) for June/July/August in your neck of the woods a

St Mary's (Scilly) 49 61 64
snip

I posted a long and expensively researched response to this
about 10 minutes ago, and got a message back saying that
it had been removed from my server. God knows why? As
I wrote it up online I don't have a copy. If it appears elsewhere,
could someone post it a second time (or just answer it) please,
although I dare say it will appear in Google groups in time
anyway.

Thanks
Philip Eden

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...

"Norman Lynagh" wrote
I don't have up-to-date figures immediately to hand but the 1931-1960
rainfall averages (mm) for June/July/August in your neck of the woods
a

St Mary's (Scilly) 49 61 64
Bude 48 72 75
Exeter 48 55 69
Falmouth 58 72 77
Hartland Pt 50 76 83
Ilfracombe 56 82 92
Newquay 47 72 70
Plymouth 53 70 77

For 1931-60 June was clearly the driest of the 3 summer months. There may
well have been a change in more recent years - Figures anyone?

July has become much much drier since about 1970, and August has
followed suit to a more limited extent. The change is evident in all parts
of the UK but is strongest in southern England.

Decadal averages for E&W are as follows (in mm):
Period June July Aug
1931-40 61.0 85.9 59.7
1941-50 56.9 70.0 89.8
1951-60 66.9 79.3 98.7
1961-70 61.3 72.1 84.8
1971-80 66.4 57.9 74.8
1981-90 68.5 56.8 71.4
1991-00 69.3 57.1 70.8
1995-04 67.7 59.2 76.5

Based on 30-year means in the EWP series, July was the wettest
month of the year (yes, wetter than Oct, Nov, or Dec) between
1801-30, but was the driest month of the year in both 1961-90 and
1971-2000. No other month has appeared at both extremes.

Also, July rainfall for overlapping 30-year periods was consistently
between 85 and 90mm for about almost a century until the 1850s,
over 50% above its recent level. No other month has varied that
much (although March has come close).

The drying out of July and August is consistent with some climate
change model predictions ... until we remember that it began at the
coldest point in the mid-20th century Micro Ice Age (that is, within
two or three years of the maximum ice extent in the Iceland/
Greenland region), and clearly has stabilized or even reversed since
the late-1980s when the warming of July and August became so
apparent.

If you look at http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/06.htm it seems
that June rainfall varies inversely with June westerliness, which may
appear
counterintuitive ... however, the decade to decade variations are really
very small and a single wet or dry month can make the difference between
a relatively wet decade and a relatively dry one.

http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/07.htm suggests the opposite,
until you look at the pressure line which ties in well with low pressure
and plentiful rain in the 1930s, and relatively high pressure from
the early-70s until recently.

http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/08.htm also indicates a loose
tie-in between mean decadal sea-level pressure and August rainfall.

Philip Eden

On Fri, 1 Jul 2005 01:19:28 +0100, "Philip Eden"
philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:


"Norman Lynagh" wrote
I don't have up-to-date figures immediately to hand but the 1931-1960
rainfall averages (mm) for June/July/August in your neck of the woods a

St Mary's (Scilly) 49 61 64
Bude 48 72 75
Exeter 48 55 69
Falmouth 58 72 77
Hartland Pt 50 76 83
Ilfracombe 56 82 92
Newquay 47 72 70
Plymouth 53 70 77

For 1931-60 June was clearly the driest of the 3 summer months. There may
well have been a change in more recent years - Figures anyone?

July has become much much drier since about 1970, and August has
followed suit to a more limited extent. The change is evident in all parts
of the UK but is strongest in southern England.

Decadal averages for E&W are as follows (in mm):
Period June July Aug
1931-40 61.0 85.9 59.7
1941-50 56.9 70.0 89.8
1951-60 66.9 79.3 98.7
1961-70 61.3 72.1 84.8
1971-80 66.4 57.9 74.8
1981-90 68.5 56.8 71.4
1991-00 69.3 57.1 70.8
1995-04 67.7 59.2 76.5

Based on 30-year means in the EWP series, July was the wettest
month of the year (yes, wetter than Oct, Nov, or Dec) between
1801-30, but was the driest month of the year in both 1961-90 and
1971-2000. No other month has appeared at both extremes.

Also, July rainfall for overlapping 30-year periods was consistently
between 85 and 90mm for about almost a century until the 1850s,
over 50% above its recent level. No other month has varied that
much (although March has come close).

The drying out of July and August is consistent with some climate
change model predictions ... until we remember that it began at the
coldest point in the mid-20th century Micro Ice Age (that is, within
two or three years of the maximum ice extent in the Iceland/
Greenland region), and clearly has stabilized or even reversed since
the late-1980s when the warming of July and August became so
apparent.

If you look at http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/06.htm it seems
that June rainfall varies inversely with June westerliness, which may appear
counterintuitive ... however, the decade to decade variations are really
very small and a single wet or dry month can make the difference between
a relatively wet decade and a relatively dry one.

http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/07.htm suggests the opposite,
until you look at the pressure line which ties in well with low pressure
and plentiful rain in the 1930s, and relatively high pressure from
the early-70s until recently.

http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/08.htm also indicates a loose
tie-in between mean decadal sea-level pressure and August rainfall.

Philip Eden

Hi Philip, thanks for that. It certainly matches my impression of how
July "feels" down here, these days; August too, if you ignore the 1931
decade.

Reposted in full as you requested in your subsequent post - I am sure
you can easily remove the quotation symbols!

--
Dave
Fareham.