Warmer than average August?
 

I thought it would be interesting to think back to the Met Office's
long range forecast issued May/June time this year, widely reported in
the press. In it they speculated that August would see searing heat,
with temparatures well above average.

It seems from Darren's commentary that the start of August will be
relatively warm, but nothing to write home about - indeed if anything
temperatures a degree or so below average.

In order for the MO to be correct, there will have to be some serious
heat in the last two weeks of August.

For me, it goes to show that forecasting these days seems to be more
about headline grabbing and soundbites rather than meaningful,
considered remarks. Even the use of probabilities and confidence in
the earlier articles would have sufficed.

My question is this - is it the media doctoring UKMO output, or are
both the media and UKMO to blame for setting expectations incorrectly?

Regards from an overcast almost October-type Wokingham,

Ian

Warmer than average August?
 

Ian Waddell wrote:

In order for the MO to be correct, there will have to be some serious
heat in the last two weeks of August.

A good chance Ian, I'm in Spain then, and whenever I'm out the Country
we have a recordbreaking heatwave in the UK!

Don't tell the media g
--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net

Warmer than average August?
 

Ian Waddell wrote:
I thought it would be interesting to think back to the Met Office's
long range forecast issued May/June time this year, widely reported in
the press. In it they speculated that August would see searing heat,
with temparatures well above average.

I don't have the forecast to hand, but recall it was the media that
totally misrepresented a forecast of a slightly above average summer.

It seems from Darren's commentary that the start of August will be
relatively warm, but nothing to write home about - indeed if anything
temperatures a degree or so below average.

In order for the MO to be correct, there will have to be some serious
heat in the last two weeks of August.

I think we should write "media", rather than MO, in sentence above.

For me, it goes to show that forecasting these days seems to be more
about headline grabbing and soundbites rather than meaningful,
considered remarks. Even the use of probabilities and confidence in
the earlier articles would have sufficed.

It's not the forecasting itself which is about headline grabbing - but
the way it is put across in the press and other forms of media.

My question is this - is it the media doctoring UKMO output, or are
both the media and UKMO to blame for setting expectations incorrectly?

I doubt the MO can be blamed if its output is totally misconstrued. I
vageuly recall the MO had to put out a follow up soon after to correct
the sensationalist articles that followed the original forecast

--
Mike Coleraine - posting via Google

Warmer than average August?
 

Mike Tullett wrote:

I doubt the MO can be blamed if its output is totally misconstrued. I
vageuly recall the MO had to put out a follow up soon after to correct
the sensationalist articles that followed the original forecast

After I sent an e-mail on another 'weather related' comment on our local
radio station, Essex FM 'Martin & Sue and the morning crew' about a
month ago, they rang me up. I was asked about this 'forecast claim', I
just said anyone making a statement at this distance (6 - 7 weeks it
would have been) of specifics like that lives in cloud coocoo land. And
also added the Met Office would NOT make such a statement. I hinted at
an 'average' July and a better August, based on the information that was
available at the time. So far that appears to have come true. We will
have to see how August pans out. They've not rung again g

--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net

Warmer than average August?
 

"Ian Waddell" wrote in message
oups.com...
I thought it would be interesting to think back to the Met Office's
long range forecast issued May/June time this year, widely reported in
the press. In it they speculated that August would see searing heat,
with temparatures well above average.

snip

My question is this - is it the media doctoring UKMO output, or are
both the media and UKMO to blame for setting expectations incorrectly?


See this from May 12th -
http://www.meto.gov.uk/corporate/pre...r20050512.html

Regards,
Tom

Warmer than average August?
 

Joe *******i had until the last few weeks been expecting very high
temperatures for August, however, his latest synopsis appears to be playing
this idea down somewhat. Looks to me as though we are going to see high
pressure to the west of the UK for at least the first few weeks of August.
Once we are past mid month, the likelihood of a major heat wave will have
diminished significantly. So, if it don't happen in the next two weeks, it
ain't going to!!

Shaun Pudwell.


"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Mike Tullett wrote:

I doubt the MO can be blamed if its output is totally misconstrued. I
vageuly recall the MO had to put out a follow up soon after to correct
the sensationalist articles that followed the original forecast

After I sent an e-mail on another 'weather related' comment on our local
radio station, Essex FM 'Martin & Sue and the morning crew' about a
month ago, they rang me up. I was asked about this 'forecast claim', I
just said anyone making a statement at this distance (6 - 7 weeks it
would have been) of specifics like that lives in cloud coocoo land. And
also added the Met Office would NOT make such a statement. I hinted at
an 'average' July and a better August, based on the information that was
available at the time. So far that appears to have come true. We will
have to see how August pans out. They've not rung again g

--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net

Warmer than average August?
 

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Ian Waddell wrote:

In order for the MO to be correct, there will have to be some serious
heat in the last two weeks of August.




I hope so. I'll be above 1000m in Norway most of the period escaping the
heat hopefully!

Warmer than average August?
 

It seems from Darren's commentary that the start of August will be
relatively warm, but nothing to write home about - indeed if anything
temperatures a degree or so below average.

"relatively warm" and "temperatures a degree or so below average" -
some contradiction here?

If it does end up below average, will we be looking at the coolest
July/Aug for some time, maybe since 1993?

Nick

Warmer than average August?
 

Felly sgrifennodd Trevor Appleton :

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Ian Waddell wrote:
In order for the MO to be correct, there will have to be some serious
heat in the last two weeks of August.

I hope so. I'll be above 1000m in Norway most of the period escaping the
heat hopefully!

Don't hope so. We were in Norway and Sweden last month, mostly up north.
The first week was an absolute scorcher, with temps up to 29.5 even approaching
the arctic circle. The second and third weeks were very changeable, with some
rain on every day, although also with some sun at times.

According to my weather station, this is more or less the exact opposite of
the weather at home for that period.

Adrian

--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk