Harvey - Is it headed our way?
 

Hi,

I thought I'd ask the experts - Ex TS harvey now headed noth east
across the atlantic, will it hit us, or will it go away and bother
Iceland?

Regards, Keith

Harvey - Is it headed our way?
 

I was glancing at the last advisory issued for Harvey. Here is what it
says:

Short version, it's generally expected to slow down in mid-atlantic,
and steering current to become weak
Some differences in model outputs.
Who knows? I think it's too early to tell right now, where the remnants
of Harvey are going, beyond the Azores
--
HARVEY IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24 CELSIUS OR LESS
AND LACKS CONVECTION NEAR THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS ASYMMETRIC AND IS GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A MIDLATITUDE
CLOUD BAND. EVEN THOUGH IT IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL... EX-HARVEY
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

HARVEY HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN AS EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17. WHILE THE STORM IS WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
HARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AND PERHAPS MEANDER JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE
UKMET IS THE OUTLIER TAKING HARVEY QUICKLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND GFDL SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BEYOND DAY 3... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 40.8N 46.1W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 09/0600Z 41.9N 44.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 09/1800Z 43.3N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 38.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 10/1800Z 44.6N 36.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1800Z 44.5N 32.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1800Z 44.0N 31.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z 43.5N 30.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
---