Met office forecasting a colder then normal winter

http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/ne...s/2005/09/18/n
chill18.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/09/18/ixnewstop.html

http://tinyurl.com/cbce5
--
--
zaax

Didn't someone on here only the other day say that the MO were predicting a
mild winter, even though they expected a negative NAO???

Shaun Pudwell.


"zaax" wrote in message
...
Met office forecasting a colder then normal winter

http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/ne...s/2005/09/18/n
chill18.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/09/18/ixnewstop.html

http://tinyurl.com/cbce5
--
--
zaax

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...
Didn't someone on here only the other day say that the MO were predicting
a mild winter, even though they expected a negative NAO???

Shaun Pudwell.


"zaax" wrote in message
...
Met office forecasting a colder then normal winter

http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/ne...s/2005/09/18/n
chill18.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/09/18/ixnewstop.html

http://tinyurl.com/cbce5
--
--
zaax


They a

http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/seas.../headline.html

and that link from the NAO page has been available for a few weeks now.

The ST's article, IMO, is just yet another example of the increasingly
sloppy journalism that is affecting it and its Daily equivalent over the
last few years. Once, they had a proper science correspondent who may have
taken the trouble to do 5 mins of his own research on the web and have found
the NAO article and the updated link to the newer forecast. The NAO
statistical forecast, has IIRC, been available since July, so it is hardly
'news' now. Probably 'leaked' or even sold to the ST from an organisation
who has since received an updated forecast based on the later information.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

I'm a little confused (comes with my age g).

I was led to beleive that forcasts of a coming colder winter were
partly based on there being an active hurricane season the previous
summer. Although I haven't looked at all years and this year we are
upto 19 named storms but, looking back at those infamous winters of 47,
63 and 87 (south uk) the prvious hurricane seasons only produced
(1946)6, (1962)5 & (1986)6 named storms. Now I wouldn't call that
active! Have I missed something?

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net


Shaun Pudwell wrote:
Didn't someone on here only the other day say that the MO were predicting a
mild winter, even though they expected a negative NAO???

Shaun Pudwell.


"zaax" wrote in message
...
Met office forecasting a colder then normal winter

http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/ne...s/2005/09/18/n
chill18.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/09/18/ixnewstop.html

http://tinyurl.com/cbce5
--
--
zaax

Keith (Southend)G wrote:
I'm a little confused (comes with my age g).

I was led to beleive that forcasts of a coming colder winter were
partly based on there being an active hurricane season the previous
summer. snip

Well, I always thought that a harsh winter was indicated by the amount
of berries on bushes at this time of year. In that respect, the bushes
are absolutely laden with berries now - one of the best years for
blackberries that I can remember.

Jonathan
Canterbury

Met office forecasting a colder then normal winter
http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/ne...ixnewstop.html
zaax

Sounds like complete guesswork nonsense and opportunistic journalism.

As Graham said recently, 80% chance this winter will be warmer than normal.
H. H. Lamb used the 7/10 rule, whatever the season before, the following
season will be similar in terms of temperature in 7/10 cases until the cycle
is broken.
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

Just been informed, the Mirror has got a piece about the severe winter
to come in today's edition

I was expecting this during October.

It's a huge risk with implications putting out this kind of stuff, i
dunno if the media have 'over-sensationalised' like they did last year,
but the people i've spoken to today after reading the articles, told me
they didn't believe it. They thought it was fear mongering

It doesn't matter where the info comes from. Cry Wolf too many times,
and people will not believe it

It seems that it's hard enough getting the next seven days forecasting
accurate, so i dunno about anyone else, i'm not dedicating too much
time getting angry or thinking about what anyone says what the weather
will be doing in many many weeks time.

Slight grin on my face with a... "ohhh is that so?"

Having now read the Telegraph article, yeah it smacks of fear/doom
mongering

Way OTT headline. I was looking for the reasons behind this, and the
only hint the telegraph article drops is:

"Considering we have had a run of fairly mild winters......."

Is that it?

Dear 'o dear

In message . com,
BlueLightning writes
Having now read the Telegraph article, yeah it smacks of fear/doom
mongering

Way OTT headline. I was looking for the reasons behind this, and the
only hint the telegraph article drops is:

"Considering we have had a run of fairly mild winters......."

Is that it?
I was told about the Sunday Telegraph report by a normally intelligent
friend. The Office was forecasting heavy snow throughout December!

I did not realise that the Office were daft enough to issue a forecast
for the winter this far ahead. On what do they base this prediction?
It seems so unlikely after so many mild winters.

We have in fact had a run of 'Mild' winters. With some very mild
spells.

Would someone like Will Hand be good enough to give me an explanation
why such a wild forecast has been issued so early?

What is the mechanism where the Office can be so mis-represented. Unless
of course they were serious which I doubt.

Cheers

Paul


--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

Paul Bartlett wrote:
In message . com,
BlueLightning writes
Having now read the Telegraph article, yeah it smacks of fear/doom
mongering

Way OTT headline. I was looking for the reasons behind this, and the
only hint the telegraph article drops is:

"Considering we have had a run of fairly mild winters......."

Is that it?
I was told about the Sunday Telegraph report by a normally intelligent
friend. The Office was forecasting heavy snow throughout December!

I did not realise that the Office were daft enough to issue a forecast
for the winter this far ahead. On what do they base this prediction?
It seems so unlikely after so many mild winters.

We have in fact had a run of 'Mild' winters. With some very mild
spells.

Would someone like Will Hand be good enough to give me an explanation
why such a wild forecast has been issued so early?

What is the mechanism where the Office can be so mis-represented.
Unless of course they were serious which I doubt. Cheers
Paul

Puzzled by this change in the winter ' forecast'....only this morning I was
looking at this page...
http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/seas.../headline.html
I can only assume that later 'information' has resulted in the complete
reversal which appeared in some of the media this morning..and which Paul
Hudson featured on 'Look North' this evening.
John
--
York,
North Yorkshire.
(c.20 metre AMSL)