Nick G wrote:




you can't call it opportunistic if the Met Office gave the following
quote

"A Met Office spokesman said it was too early to predict exact
temperatures for the winter, but they were expected to be "significantly
colder than average".

Seems to me this is fair journalism. If it is good meteorology will have
to wait.

In message , John Whitby
writes
Paul Bartlett wrote:
In message . com,
BlueLightning writes
Having now read the Telegraph article, yeah it smacks of fear/doom
mongering

Way OTT headline. I was looking for the reasons behind this, and the
only hint the telegraph article drops is:

"Considering we have had a run of fairly mild winters......."

Is that it?
I was told about the Sunday Telegraph report by a normally intelligent
friend. The Office was forecasting heavy snow throughout December!

I did not realise that the Office were daft enough to issue a forecast
for the winter this far ahead. On what do they base this prediction?
It seems so unlikely after so many mild winters.

We have in fact had a run of 'Mild' winters. With some very mild
spells.

Would someone like Will Hand be good enough to give me an explanation
why such a wild forecast has been issued so early?

What is the mechanism where the Office can be so mis-represented.
Unless of course they were serious which I doubt. Cheers
Paul

Puzzled by this change in the winter ' forecast'....only this morning I
was looking at this page...
http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/seas.../headline.html
I can only assume that later 'information' has resulted in the complete
reversal which appeared in some of the media this morning..and which
Paul Hudson featured on 'Look North' this evening.
John
John.
I couldn't get through to the URL. But I am still confused how an
intelligent and well educated layman can be lead into expecting a severe
winter. Via Telegraph from Office.
Seems weird to me.
Kind regards
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

In message , Nick G
writes
Met office forecasting a colder then normal winter

http://www.portal.telegraph.co.uk/ne...ws/2005/09/18/
nchill18.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/09/18/ixnewstop.html
zaax

Sounds like complete guesswork nonsense and opportunistic journalism.

As Graham said recently, 80% chance this winter will be warmer than normal.
H. H. Lamb used the 7/10 rule, whatever the season before, the following
season will be similar in terms of temperature in 7/10 cases until the cycle
is broken.
Nick, seems sense to me. So why are the media floating this around?
OK to get attention -fine. But who in the Office gave them this reason
to promote such an unlikely forecast.
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

In message , varnish
writes
Nick G wrote:




you can't call it opportunistic if the Met Office gave the following
quote

"A Met Office spokesman said it was too early to predict exact
temperatures for the winter, but they were expected to be "significantly
colder than average".

Seems to me this is fair journalism. If it is good meteorology will have
to wait.
Nick OK. We are now getting down to what is reasonable. And the above
certainly is. Whether it is 'Fair journalism' will depend on what data
they were given and how they interpreted it. This is what I am trying
to find out.
The outcome IMO is misleading the public reading a 'quality' newspaper.
Cheers
Paul.
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

What I don't get from that mild long term forecast is that it also
vaguely suggests higher than average rainfall over Iberia, lower over
northern UK for the to-the-end-of-January period. Surely that suggests
easterlies i.e. cold?

Nick

"Nick G" wrote in message
...
As Graham said recently, 80% chance this winter will be warmer than
normal. H. H. Lamb used the 7/10 rule, whatever the season before, the
following season will be similar in terms of temperature in 7/10 cases
until the cycle is broken.

So we can say 80%, or not, once we know what autumn 2005 was like.

Victor

Sounds to me as if the media have taken the forecast for the UK and combined
it with the forecast for Europe and ended up with a colder than average
winter. It is however, interesting to note that Joe *******i, has also been
hinting on a colder than average winter, so who knows? Anything is possible!

Shaun Pudwell.


"Victor West" wrote in message
...

"Nick G" wrote in message
...
As Graham said recently, 80% chance this winter will be warmer than
normal. H. H. Lamb used the 7/10 rule, whatever the season before, the
following season will be similar in terms of temperature in 7/10 cases
until the cycle is broken.

So we can say 80%, or not, once we know what autumn 2005 was like.

Victor

In article , (varnish) writes:


you can't call it opportunistic if the Met Office gave the following
quote

"A Met Office spokesman said it was too early to predict exact
temperatures for the winter, but they were expected to be "significantly
colder than average".

Seems to me this is fair journalism. If it is good meteorology will have
to wait.


Average what? It is a useless statement without bounds on the average.

Average over the last five years? last ten years? last 30 years? last
100 years?

(Or, perhaps the "Met Office spokesman" meant significantly colder than the
average.. summer?-)

Now, why didn't the journalist, Roya Nikkhah (!), ask that simple and
obvious question so that everyone knew where the Met Office stood?

Of course, an intelligent person would then like to know upon what this
prediction is based?

I don't know whether I am more frustrated by the journalism or the "Met Office
spokesman".


No Cheers,

keith






---
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100,000+ civilian casualties, largely of coalition bombing...
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Felly sgrifennodd Malcolm :
In article , Jonathan Stott
writes
Well, I always thought that a harsh winter was indicated by the amount
of berries on bushes at this time of year. In that respect, the bushes
are absolutely laden with berries now - one of the best years for
blackberries that I can remember.

A *very* old rural myth!

The quantity of berries reflects the previous summer and autumn weather
as it is then that the trees and bushes lay down their energy stores
which will be converted into flowering the following spring.

Just *maybe* the quantity of berries has something to do with the May NAO?

Food for thought.

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk

Felly sgrifennodd Malcolm :
In article , Jonathan Stott
writes
Well, I always thought that a harsh winter was indicated by the amount
of berries on bushes at this time of year. In that respect, the bushes
are absolutely laden with berries now - one of the best years for
blackberries that I can remember.

A *very* old rural myth!

The quantity of berries reflects the previous summer and autumn weather
as it is then that the trees and bushes lay down their energy stores
which will be converted into flowering the following spring.

Just *maybe* the quantity of berries has something to do with the May SSTs?

Food for thought.

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk