I posted the below this evening on Todd's Yahoo group. Though you might
find it interesting....
---------------------------

Here are the maximum temps for the past five days here in Ashland, MA:

75 74 75 75 75

These data are remarkably consistent. The runner up so far this year is the
five days ending January 27:

19 18 16 18 22

I searched year 2003 and year 2004 to date for the number of occurrences of
two consecutive days within one degree or less of one another. Once again,
EXCEL came through quickly; there were 88 of 544 possible times that two
consecutive highs were within one degree or less. Therefore, do I dare to
state that the probability of this happening is 88/544 = .16?

Pushing the probability envelope a bit, it then follows that the probability
of three in a row within one degree is .16 x .16 = .026.

4 in a row .16 x .16 x .16 = .0041.

5 in a row .16 x .16 x .16 x .16 = .00066.

(Of course, this assumes that these are independent events, which to a point
is true but keep in mind that weather trends tend to skew these data).

The point of all this is to show that the chances of seeing 5 maximum temps
in a row within one degree is small indeed, and perhaps around 7 out of
10,000!

Finally, here are the five consecutive days that win the booby prize for
consistency:

38 8 7 12 36

Which are the five days ending January 17Šthis includes the middle of three
January cold snaps, and by far the most damage


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79, 79, 79, 78 at KDYL (Doylestown, PA).
It would be interesting to find out the most number of days with the same
max (and/or min) temperature at a given location.

"Jot Ross" wrote in message
...
I posted the below this evening on Todd's Yahoo group. Though you might
find it interesting....
---------------------------

Here are the maximum temps for the past five days here in Ashland, MA:

75 74 75 75 75

These data are remarkably consistent. The runner up so far this year is
the
five days ending January 27:

19 18 16 18 22

I searched year 2003 and year 2004 to date for the number of occurrences
of
two consecutive days within one degree or less of one another. Once again,
EXCEL came through quickly; there were 88 of 544 possible times that two
consecutive highs were within one degree or less. Therefore, do I dare to
state that the probability of this happening is 88/544 = .16?

Pushing the probability envelope a bit, it then follows that the
probability
of three in a row within one degree is .16 x .16 = .026.

4 in a row .16 x .16 x .16 = .0041.

5 in a row .16 x .16 x .16 x .16 = .00066.

(Of course, this assumes that these are independent events, which to a
point
is true but keep in mind that weather trends tend to skew these data).

The point of all this is to show that the chances of seeing 5 maximum
temps
in a row within one degree is small indeed, and perhaps around 7 out of
10,000!

Finally, here are the five consecutive days that win the booby prize for
consistency:

38 8 7 12 36

Which are the five days ending January 17Sthis includes the middle of
three
January cold snaps, and by far the most damage


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Jot Ross wrote in :

Once again,
EXCEL came through quickly;

Does this mean you've given up on the Mac? I recall when your name was
synonymous with "MacCurveFit".

PS I'll take the recent spell over 90,90,90,90 any time.


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in article , EdM at
wrote on 7/1/04 1:15 AM:

Jot Ross wrote in :

Once again,
EXCEL came through quickly;

Does this mean you've given up on the Mac? I recall when your name was
synonymous with "MacCurveFit".

PS I'll take the recent spell over 90,90,90,90 any time.

No way have I given up on the Mac. Panther is awesome...I did finally bite
the bullet and get Mircrosoft Office but still use MacCurveFit now and then.

I agree that that recent set of mid 70's is the way it should be (in fact
twelve months a year would be fine with me!)

Jot


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