Ivan had better start making that turn towards the northwest soon if
its going to prove the track models correct.
Right now, I'm looking at the latest loop and I see only the faintest
movement northward in the track of the storm. True, it is early but
the latitudinal
track is quite far to the south.

It took a wobble but looks like its still basically heading due west,
maybe a little north of west.
The cloud movement throughout the Caribbean is from the NORTHEAST..Do
we really expect Ivan to defy those air patterns and track
northwestward towards Cuba?

Even if it does, it'll have to start making a more northwesterly
motion pretty soon to reach those upper latitudes, particularly
Florida's.

I wouldn't be surprised if it misses Florida altogether.

On 8 Sep 2004 17:33:20 -0700, (Darrell H) wrote:

Ivan had better start making that turn towards the northwest soon if
its going to prove the track models correct.
Right now, I'm looking at the latest loop and I see only the faintest
movement northward in the track of the storm. True, it is early but
the latitudinal
track is quite far to the south.

It took a wobble but looks like its still basically heading due west,
maybe a little north of west.
The cloud movement throughout the Caribbean is from the NORTHEAST..Do
we really expect Ivan to defy those air patterns and track
northwestward towards Cuba?

Even if it does, it'll have to start making a more northwesterly
motion pretty soon to reach those upper latitudes, particularly
Florida's.

I wouldn't be surprised if it misses Florida altogether.


Florida is a big state, the panhandle extends all the way west to near
87.5 degrees west. Ivan is forecast to slow and recurve north
sometime before hitting the gulf coast. Tonight she is a little south
of the official track but it is too early to pinpoint a landfall.