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sci.geo.meteorology (Meteorology) (sci.geo.meteorology) For the discussion of meteorology and related topics. |
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It is fairly clear to me from having worked for years in the environmental
policy field that what science says or does not say about global warming and its impacts is largely irrelevant when it comes to deciding what, if anything, to do about it. Because, in the opinion of most decision-makers, reducing greenhouse gas emissions would result in an unacceptably high socio-economic hit, it will never happen. Letting global warming take place and adapting to its impacts is, in the view of many policy-makers, much more acceptable and can result in net socio-economic benefits for current generations. If science were a consideration, we would make a concentrated effort instead to reduce emissions now in such a way as to minimize the current hit, with a view to achieving intergenerational equity. Basing decisions on socio-economic analysis will never result in significant reductions because, among other things, of the enormous effect of discounting a benefit stream over a century or so. The irrelevance of science was highlighted when the global and national emission reductions targets were set in Kyoto - the over all reduction target and the individual national targets were not based on science but on political negotiation with countries' positions being driven by socio-economic considerations. The bottom line - move away from policy discussions based on science and the resulting scientific "debate", which that detract us from examining what needs to be done to ensure sustainability of our socio economic systems in the long term. This includes, of course, sustaining the earth's life support systems, without which socio-economic activity cannot exist. |
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