SEPTMBER 2005 30-DAY OUTLOOK
400 PM EDT Wed. September 1, 2005
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and Canonical Correlation analysis, observed cases from past such
months and new data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific continue to remain
neutral. All oceanic and atmospheric indicators also are indicating
near normal conditions and are expected to remain near normal through
the next couple of months.
Models are in generally good agreement in the longwave pattern across
North America. An upper low will be north of Alaska with a large area
of positive height anomalies across much of Canada extending into the
northern part of the nation. Troughs will be along the West and the
East coasts. Weak ridging is forecast across the Southwest and the
south-central U.S.
Above normal temperatures are forecast across a large portion of the
nation extending across the West and the central and southern states.
The probability of above normal temperatures across this region is 58
percent. The remainder of the nation is likely to average near normal
with no significant deviation from normal climatology.
Below normal precipitation is forecast across is expected across the
West and the central Plains. The probability of below normal
precipitation in this region is 56 percent. Above normal precipitation
is expected across the Southeast into the lower mid-Atlantic region.
The probability of above normal across this region is 58 percent. The
remainder of the nation is expected to average near normal with no
significant deviation from normal climatology.
Jim G. Munley, jr.,
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx/