http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...tml?5day?large
Tropical Depression TWENTY-SEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/140258.shtml
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

....THE TWENTY-SEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC
SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

.... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
....AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. WINDS
MAY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/140259.shtml
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARDS... THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT... AT WHICH TIME MORE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE
INTENSITY UP TO 66 KT IN 108 HOURS... WHEREAS THE GFDL MAKES THE
CYCLONE A 112-KT MAJOR HURRICANE AT THE SAME TIME. IT SHOULD BE
POINTED OUT THAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST WAS BASED ON
THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TAKES THE STORM
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS COLOMBIA WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP STRONGER THAN
INDICATED AFTER 72 HOURS... GIVEN THE MUCH LOWER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE 96- AND 120-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITIONS.

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It is noted for the record that only 2 of the 26 previous numbered
tropical depressions this season failed to go onwards to become named
storms. This depression is only 1 mph below named strength.