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#1
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It's been pretty quiet in Carribbean since Roger made this comment. Here's yesterday's press release from the Solar Weather Technique forecaster: It wasn't quiet at all. The wind shears have been steady 20-25 mph every day. That represents a lot of energy in itself. Side to side energy prevents bottom to top energy from forming long enough to get swirling. The side-to-side energy expendatures have been far higher than this little infant tropical depression in one small pocket of the seas. If it doesn't have a name or a number it doesn't exist? The Tropical Depression may have developed some winds up to 40 mph, but as gusts. Until it sustains winds at 35 mph it doesn't get a name from the weather service. The windshear across tens of thousands of miles of ocean is "quiet" because it is blowing half the speed of this depression only scores of miles in diameter? 20-25 mph winds over thousands of square miles is nothing, but 30 mph in a small pocket is a big deal? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/160231.shtml Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Discussion Number 9 NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl 10 Pm EST Tue Nov 15 2005 It is impossible to locate the center of the depression with conventional satellite imagery...so the advisory position and motion are based on continuity of the earlier track. an ssmis microwave pass at 0030z hints that the center may be racing more quickly away from the convection though...and if this is the case then the depression is on a fast track to dissipation. quikscat ambiguities just in a few moments ago allow for the possibility that a circulation is still present...but just barely. the consensus of the dvorak intensity estimates remains below tropical storm strength...so the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt for this advisory. shear analyses from the gfs and uw/cimss indicate there is still about 25 kt of westerly shear over the depression...and it is quite possible that the circulation will dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours. Weather Action, November 14, 2005 News Release Late season Caribbean storm - Numb 27 - forms - Solar based long range forecast confirmed. - Warning repeated for storm in Britain 20th-25th Nov. TODAY 14th Nov a new Developing Tropical Depression/Storm - 'Storm 27' formed* in the Carribbean confirming the Weather Action long range forecast for formation of such a storm in the time window 13th-16th THIS IS NOT WHAT WAS PREDICTED. Specifically a "major Tropical Storm or hurricane" was predicted. A "tropical depression" was never mentioned. This forecast was first publicly announced by Piers Corbyn of Weather Action at a meeting in the Royal Society on Weds 19th Oct and restated in Press release (below) on Friday 21st Oct:: "....For the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico we expect a major Tropical Storm or hurricane to form around the 13th to 16th November." Storms this late in the season are unusual and this forecast is for a 'one in ten year event' which is likely to cause damage. "It is absolutely nothing to do with Global warming hype" said Mr Corbyn "but caused by predictable special particle and magnetic effects from the Sun". P.S. Here's the Oct 21 news release which started this thread Weather Action, October 21, 2005 News Release After Wilma - Weather Action Solar based forecasters predict another Caribbean/Gulf hurricane mid November; and it's nothing to do with 'Global warming' "Another Caribbean/Gulf damaging hurricane is likely to form in mid November and it is nothing to do with so-called man made Global Warming" announced Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of Weather Action the solar-based long range forecasters today. Piers Corbyn is known to attribute large planets for influencing the sun to emit "solar particles" and influence the weather. The tropical Atlantic-Carribean sea surface temperatures of October 21st would have been expected to sustain a long hurricane season. Note: there is no such thing as a "Major Tropical Storm" in weather lexiconology, but "Major Hurricane" has a precise definition of having winds in excess of 115 mph. Tropical Depression #27 has winds less than the 35 mph sufficient to earn the name "Tropical Storm Gamma". Corbyn has misrepresented himself as an "Astrophyicist". His theory of planetary influence over the sun causing storms on earth is properly called Astrology. There is no plausible elucidated mechanism whereby any influence from Jupiter on the Earth or Jupiter on the Sun can target specific geographical locations on earth to influence weather at detailed points on the planet. Physics does not produce any explanations favoring such a theory but has a large storehouse of contradictory evidences. Here is Jupiter's position for ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING: http://www.nightskyinfo.com/ Night Sky This Week November 14 - 20, 2005 "... Jupiter Jupiter is visible in the morning twilight, rising two hours before the Sun. The gas giant lies it the constellation Virgo and shines brightly at magnitude -1.7. At 6 A.M. local time Jupiter is ten degrees above the eastern horizon, high enough for telescopic observations at low power. If you use high magnification the quality of the image will be low, due to atmospheric turbulence. ..." What this informs the reader is that Jupiter is on the far side of the sun in it's current relationship to Earth's orbit. Any interactions between the Sun and Jupiter are directed away from planet Earth. Any solar leprechans or cosmic rays or other malarkey are not in any way being focussed or directed towards the Earth, but in the opposite direction away from the Earth. Corbyn has made no explanations of the ABSENSE of influence being the cause of severe Earth weather. If you examine this ASTROLOGICAL CHART you can see the near-conjunction of Jupiter and the Sun: http://www.alabe.com/cgi-bin/chart/a...T5=Brewster,MA Looking in the lower left, approximately 7:00 O'Clock position is what looks like a W or upside down M. Inside that pie section are two symbols, one looks like a "4" and one looks like a circle with a dot in the middle. Those are Jupiter and the Sun, respectively, in ASTROLOGICAL SYMBOLISM. They are both in the "House" of Scorpio (which is the current month. What it means to be "in the house" is looking from Earth past the celestial object one see's the constellation in the background with the name "Scorpio". The Sun in the house of Scorpio is the sunsign. Both objects in the ASTROLOGICAL chart in the same house is given weight by astrologers, quite the opposite of the weight given by ASTROPHYICISTS. Physics says the gravitational influence is lower than when Jupiter is high in the night sky instead of in the day sky. Jupiter has less effect right now than it did in May, when Earth was between Jupiter and the Sun. Any gravitational effects, any magnetic effects, between the Sun and Jupiter had the Earth in the middle between them. Where were the hurricanes of May? Where was Corbyn's predictions of hurricanes in May? http://www.space.com/spacewatch/0505...n_jupiter.html Doorstep Astronomy: See Saturn and Jupiter Now! By Joe Rao SPACE.com Night Sky Columnist posted: 06 May 2005 05:43 am ET "... Saturn and Jupiter are easy to spot in the early evening sky now. During the winter and early spring these planets were at their best when they reached their respective oppositions to the Sun (Saturn on January 13, Jupiter on April 3). At these occasions, besides shining at their very brightest and appearing largest in telescopes, these two planets were visible for the entire night, rising at sunset, attaining their highest point in the sky at midnight and setting at sunrise. ..." This forecast comes just after a major success by Weather Action in forecasting high risk periods of tornado formation in Britain. The tornado in Birmingham on Oct 12th dramatically confirmed the published long range Weather Action forecast for such events in Britain in the period Oct 10th-13th. On Wednesday Mr Corbyn, attending a meeting at the Royal Society in London, announced this breakthrough and roundly criticised 'Global Warming Spin' for ridiculous claims that hurricane Katrina and other catastrophic landfalling storms were effects of so-called man-made Global warming . "The fact is there have been significantly less than before, not more, of these storms in recent decades - especially in the USA - " he said (see below**). Corbyn is plain lying. Location of Source Data: http://tinyurl.com/7q4xp 1851-2002 Wikipedia 2003-2005 The Bottom Line: PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE 1996-2005 to averages 1851-1995 144% MORE Tropical Storms, 1996-2005 47% MORE Hurricanes Category 1, 1996-2005 14% LESS Hurricanes Category 2, 1996-2005 52% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 3, 1996-2005 90% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 4, 1996-2005 257% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 5, 1996-2005 (Upto 2005 Hurricane Wilma C5) Figures recomputed and published Oct-19-2005 (includes up to Hurricane Wilma C5 2005) By adding in the latest years storms the entire record average is raised, even though the same number of storms occurred in yesteryears. Then by comparing the latest decade to a higher total average, it reduces the apparent increase in this decades activity. A fair comparison would be the record from 1851-1995 to 1996-2005 to get the true picture of how much more severe the weather has gotten this past decade. Today he stated "New advances in our Solar Weather Technique of long range forecasting (now SWT20a) confirm that periods of enhanced major storm and tornado formation and development are primarily driven by solar particle and magnetic effects and we can predict them many months ahead. We expect another period of major thunderstorms and potential tornado formation in Britain around Oct 24th-27th; and for the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico we expect a major Tropical Storm or hurricane to form around the 13th to 16th November." He added "This is a one in ten year event so the Global warming spinners will doubtless say it's all down to man-made CO2, but it's not" Thank you The ONE YEAR IN TEN EVENT happened in 2003 Actually it was a once every 106 years event, when two storms developed even later in the season. (It might be more impressive if Corbyn had put a prediction of that on the record 6 weeks ahead of the fact -- Hurricane season goes through NOVEMBER 30th FOR A REASON.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_At...rricane_season .... Two unusual events happened in the 2003 season. The first was the formation of Tropical Storm Ana, the first Atlantic tropical storm on record to form in April. The other was the December formation of Tropical Storms Odette and Peter, making 2003 the first time two Atlantic tropical storms formed in December since the 1887 hurricane season. ... Global warming means earlier starts and later finishes to the storm seasons. More heat stays in the system over winter. More feedback heats the waters hotter faster and they stay hotter longer into the year. 2005 had one of the earliest starts on record, in fact record-breaking early storms: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_At...rricane_season .... The season began very quickly, with seven tropical storms and two major hurricanes forming before August, setting numerous records for number and strength of storms. The season ended up breaking sixteen records for earliest forming storms; i.e., the fifth storm of the season formed well before any other fifth storm in a season. The trend did not let up, and more storms formed in October than any other month in the year, even though the hurricane season traditionally peaks in September. In total so far, twenty-three named storms and twenty-seven tropical depressions have formed, surpassing many records for storm formation in the Atlantic. ... Predicting weather and hurricanes may be an "inate" talent of Corbyn's, but that is yet to be determined. The human brain can process ASTRONOMICAL quantities of information, beyond all the supercomputers in the world put together. Unfortunately few know how to do this consciously and under control. It very well might be that subliminally Corbyn is processing data which leads him to better than average successes in predicting (but not far better, only slightly better than average). It does not however have anything to do with replicatable science and laws of physics. The term is for someone who does this is idiot savant. |
#2
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![]() "Science Cop" wrote in message oups.com... wrote: It's been pretty quiet in Carribbean since Roger made this comment. Here's yesterday's press release from the Solar Weather Technique forecaster: It wasn't quiet at all. The wind shears have been steady 20-25 mph every day. That represents a lot of energy in itself. Side to side energy prevents bottom to top energy from forming long enough to get swirling. The side-to-side energy expendatures have been far higher than this little infant tropical depression in one small pocket of the seas. If it doesn't have a name or a number it doesn't exist? The Tropical Depression may have developed some winds up to 40 mph, but as gusts. Until it sustains winds at 35 mph it doesn't get a name from the weather service. The windshear across tens of thousands of miles of ocean is "quiet" because it is blowing half the speed of this depression only scores of miles in diameter? 20-25 mph winds over thousands of square miles is nothing, but 30 mph in a small pocket is a big deal? http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/160231.shtml Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Discussion Number 9 NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl 10 Pm EST Tue Nov 15 2005 It is impossible to locate the center of the depression with conventional satellite imagery...so the advisory position and motion are based on continuity of the earlier track. an ssmis microwave pass at 0030z hints that the center may be racing more quickly away from the convection though...and if this is the case then the depression is on a fast track to dissipation. quikscat ambiguities just in a few moments ago allow for the possibility that a circulation is still present...but just barely. the consensus of the dvorak intensity estimates remains below tropical storm strength...so the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt for this advisory. shear analyses from the gfs and uw/cimss indicate there is still about 25 kt of westerly shear over the depression...and it is quite possible that the circulation will dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours. Weather Action, November 14, 2005 News Release Late season Caribbean storm - Numb 27 - forms - Solar based long range forecast confirmed. - Warning repeated for storm in Britain 20th-25th Nov. TODAY 14th Nov a new Developing Tropical Depression/Storm - 'Storm 27' formed* in the Carribbean confirming the Weather Action long range forecast for formation of such a storm in the time window 13th-16th THIS IS NOT WHAT WAS PREDICTED. Specifically a "major Tropical Storm or hurricane" was predicted. A "tropical depression" was never mentioned. This forecast was first publicly announced by Piers Corbyn of Weather Action at a meeting in the Royal Society on Weds 19th Oct and restated in Press release (below) on Friday 21st Oct:: "....For the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico we expect a major Tropical Storm or hurricane to form around the 13th to 16th November." Storms this FWIW, "major Tropical Storm or hurricane" is a bit of a nonsense phrase anyway. Tropical storms are just tropical storms, (minor) hurricanes are category 1 or 2, and major hurricanes are category three or greater. The failure to keep this terminology straight seems significant. late in the season are unusual and this forecast is for a 'one in ten year event' which is likely to cause damage. "It is absolutely nothing to do with Global warming hype" said Mr Corbyn "but caused by predictable special particle and magnetic effects from the Sun". P.S. Here's the Oct 21 news release which started this thread Weather Action, October 21, 2005 News Release After Wilma - Weather Action Solar based forecasters predict another Caribbean/Gulf hurricane mid November; and it's nothing to do with 'Global warming' "Another Caribbean/Gulf damaging hurricane is likely to form in mid November and it is nothing to do with so-called man made Global Warming" announced Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of Weather Action the solar-based long range forecasters today. Piers Corbyn is known to attribute large planets for influencing the sun to emit "solar particles" and influence the weather. The tropical Atlantic-Carribean sea surface temperatures of October 21st would have been expected to sustain a long hurricane season. Note: there is no such thing as a "Major Tropical Storm" in weather lexiconology, but "Major Hurricane" has a precise definition of having winds in excess of 115 mph. Tropical Depression #27 has winds less than the 35 mph sufficient to earn the name "Tropical Storm Gamma". Corbyn has misrepresented himself as an "Astrophyicist". His theory of planetary influence over the sun causing storms on earth is properly called Astrology. There is no plausible elucidated mechanism whereby any influence from Jupiter on the Earth or Jupiter on the Sun can target specific geographical locations on earth to influence weather at detailed points on the planet. Physics does not produce any explanations favoring such a theory but has a large storehouse of contradictory evidences. Here is Jupiter's position for ASTRONOMICAL VIEWING: http://www.nightskyinfo.com/ Night Sky This Week November 14 - 20, 2005 "... Jupiter Jupiter is visible in the morning twilight, rising two hours before the Sun. The gas giant lies it the constellation Virgo and shines brightly at magnitude -1.7. At 6 A.M. local time Jupiter is ten degrees above the eastern horizon, high enough for telescopic observations at low power. If you use high magnification the quality of the image will be low, due to atmospheric turbulence. ..." What this informs the reader is that Jupiter is on the far side of the sun in it's current relationship to Earth's orbit. Any interactions between the Sun and Jupiter are directed away from planet Earth. Any solar leprechans or cosmic rays or other malarkey are not in any way being focussed or directed towards the Earth, but in the opposite direction away from the Earth. Corbyn has made no explanations of the ABSENSE of influence being the cause of severe Earth weather. If you examine this ASTROLOGICAL CHART you can see the near-conjunction of Jupiter and the Sun: http://www.alabe.com/cgi-bin/chart/a...T5=Brewster,MA Looking in the lower left, approximately 7:00 O'Clock position is what looks like a W or upside down M. Inside that pie section are two symbols, one looks like a "4" and one looks like a circle with a dot in the middle. Those are Jupiter and the Sun, respectively, in ASTROLOGICAL SYMBOLISM. They are both in the "House" of Scorpio (which is the current month. What it means to be "in the house" is looking from Earth past the celestial object one see's the constellation in the background with the name "Scorpio". The Sun in the house of Scorpio is the sunsign. Both objects in the ASTROLOGICAL chart in the same house is given weight by astrologers, quite the opposite of the weight given by ASTROPHYICISTS. Physics says the gravitational influence is lower than when Jupiter is high in the night sky instead of in the day sky. Jupiter has less effect right now than it did in May, when Earth was between Jupiter and the Sun. Any gravitational effects, any magnetic effects, between the Sun and Jupiter had the Earth in the middle between them. Where were the hurricanes of May? Where was Corbyn's predictions of hurricanes in May? http://www.space.com/spacewatch/0505...n_jupiter.html Doorstep Astronomy: See Saturn and Jupiter Now! By Joe Rao SPACE.com Night Sky Columnist posted: 06 May 2005 05:43 am ET "... Saturn and Jupiter are easy to spot in the early evening sky now. During the winter and early spring these planets were at their best when they reached their respective oppositions to the Sun (Saturn on January 13, Jupiter on April 3). At these occasions, besides shining at their very brightest and appearing largest in telescopes, these two planets were visible for the entire night, rising at sunset, attaining their highest point in the sky at midnight and setting at sunrise. ..." This forecast comes just after a major success by Weather Action in forecasting high risk periods of tornado formation in Britain. The tornado in Birmingham on Oct 12th dramatically confirmed the published long range Weather Action forecast for such events in Britain in the period Oct 10th-13th. On Wednesday Mr Corbyn, attending a meeting at the Royal Society in London, announced this breakthrough and roundly criticised 'Global Warming Spin' for ridiculous claims that hurricane Katrina and other catastrophic landfalling storms were effects of so-called man-made Global warming . "The fact is there have been significantly less than before, not more, of these storms in recent decades - especially in the USA - " he said (see below**). Corbyn is plain lying. Location of Source Data: http://tinyurl.com/7q4xp 1851-2002 Wikipedia 2003-2005 The Bottom Line: PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE 1996-2005 to averages 1851-1995 144% MORE Tropical Storms, 1996-2005 47% MORE Hurricanes Category 1, 1996-2005 14% LESS Hurricanes Category 2, 1996-2005 52% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 3, 1996-2005 90% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 4, 1996-2005 257% MORE MAJOR Hurricanes Category 5, 1996-2005 (Upto 2005 Hurricane Wilma C5) Figures recomputed and published Oct-19-2005 (includes up to Hurricane Wilma C5 2005) By adding in the latest years storms the entire record average is raised, even though the same number of storms occurred in yesteryears. Then by comparing the latest decade to a higher total average, it reduces the apparent increase in this decades activity. A fair comparison would be the record from 1851-1995 to 1996-2005 to get the true picture of how much more severe the weather has gotten this past decade. Today he stated "New advances in our Solar Weather Technique of long range forecasting (now SWT20a) confirm that periods of enhanced major storm and tornado formation and development are primarily driven by solar particle and magnetic effects and we can predict them many months ahead. We expect another period of major thunderstorms and potential tornado formation in Britain around Oct 24th-27th; and for the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico we expect a major Tropical Storm or hurricane to form around the 13th to 16th November." He added "This is a one in ten year event so the Global warming spinners will doubtless say it's all down to man-made CO2, but it's not" Thank you The ONE YEAR IN TEN EVENT happened in 2003 Actually it was a once every 106 years event, when two storms developed even later in the season. (It might be more impressive if Corbyn had put a prediction of that on the record 6 weeks ahead of the fact -- Hurricane season goes through NOVEMBER 30th FOR A REASON.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_At...rricane_season ... Two unusual events happened in the 2003 season. The first was the formation of Tropical Storm Ana, the first Atlantic tropical storm on record to form in April. The other was the December formation of Tropical Storms Odette and Peter, making 2003 the first time two Atlantic tropical storms formed in December since the 1887 hurricane season. ... Global warming means earlier starts and later finishes to the storm seasons. More heat stays in the system over winter. More feedback heats the waters hotter faster and they stay hotter longer into the year. 2005 had one of the earliest starts on record, in fact record-breaking early storms: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_At...rricane_season ... The season began very quickly, with seven tropical storms and two major hurricanes forming before August, setting numerous records for number and strength of storms. The season ended up breaking sixteen records for earliest forming storms; i.e., the fifth storm of the season formed well before any other fifth storm in a season. The trend did not let up, and more storms formed in October than any other month in the year, even though the hurricane season traditionally peaks in September. In total so far, twenty-three named storms and twenty-seven tropical depressions have formed, surpassing many records for storm formation in the Atlantic. ... Predicting weather and hurricanes may be an "inate" talent of Corbyn's, but that is yet to be determined. The human brain can process ASTRONOMICAL quantities of information, beyond all the supercomputers in the world put together. Unfortunately few know how to do this consciously and under control. It very well might be that subliminally Corbyn is processing data which leads him to better than average successes in predicting (but not far better, only slightly better than average). It does not however have anything to do with replicatable science and laws of physics. The term is for someone who does this is idiot savant. |
#3
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In article .com,
"Science Cop" wrote, in part: wrote: It's been pretty quiet in Carribbean since Roger made this comment. Here's yesterday's press release from the Solar Weather Technique forecaster: It wasn't quiet at all. ... Your point might be more appropro had my 'pretty quiet' comment been made in a vacuum rather than in the context provided by Roger, which you prefer to snip. TODAY 14th Nov a new Developing Tropical Depression/Storm - 'Storm 27' formed* in the Carribbean confirming the Weather Action long range forecast for formation of such a storm in the time window 13th-16th THIS IS NOT WHAT WAS PREDICTED. Specifically a "major Tropical Storm or hurricane" was predicted. A "tropical depression" was never mentioned. That's true enough. The fact remains that the biggest storm since Tropical Depression 26 formed when and where Corbyn forecast. ... Piers Corbyn is known to attribute large planets for influencing the sun to emit "solar particles" and influence the weather... Corbyn has misrepresented himself as an "Astrophyicist". His theory of planetary influence over the sun causing storms on earth is properly called Astrology. There is no plausible elucidated mechanism whereby any influence from Jupiter on the Earth or Jupiter on the Sun can target specific geographical locations on earth to influence weather at detailed points on the planet... Well, you are not alone in applying so broad a definition of astrology. Yet it seems clear enough to me that the study of effects of the solar system on the sun is not inherently unscientific. I'd like to mention that Corbyn's presentation to Institute of Physics included discussion of the importance of Earth's magnetic field too, including the role of changes in the field on climate. It is true that Weather Action does not provide replicable methodology for public review. Other scientists are sure free to choose to ignore the prospects for further publiic scientific inquiry. I suspect, however, that much more research will be done by many folks, despite the risk of defamatory ravings from peers and kooks alike. Very truly, Steve Schulin http://www.nuclear.com |
#4
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![]() Steve Schulin wrote: In article .com, "Science Cop" wrote, in part: wrote: It's been pretty quiet in Carribbean since Roger made this comment. Here's yesterday's press release from the Solar Weather Technique forecaster: It wasn't quiet at all. ... Your point might be more appropro had my 'pretty quiet' comment been made in a vacuum rather than in the context provided by Roger, which you prefer to snip. Coppock's comment was that this has been a busy year with storms raging without relief every few days. I snipped it because the comments I was making was going to be long enough without carrying Coppock's comment not relevent to the points I was making. The weather changed but did not change to inactivity. As much energy was expended in a period of weeks to make strong consistent winds of 20-25 mph spread out over thousands of miles as may be found concentrated in focal-point storms of major hurricane force. The amounts of energy expended did not change. So strong were these crosswinds that a major monstor hurricane called Wilma was "boosted like a rocket" in the words of the National Hurricane Center. to speed Wilma to and through Florida. Wilma was but a toy in these winds. In terms of total energy expendatures, the steering winds were stronger than the hurricane. Highly accurate predictions of Wilma's path were valuable -- Corbyn was silent. Predictions on tropical depression #27, now defunct, are worthless -- Corbyn crowed. TODAY 14th Nov a new Developing Tropical Depression/Storm - 'Storm 27' formed* in the Carribbean confirming the Weather Action long range forecast for formation of such a storm in the time window 13th-16th THIS IS NOT WHAT WAS PREDICTED. Specifically a "major Tropical Storm or hurricane" was predicted. A "tropical depression" was never mentioned. That's true enough. The fact remains that the biggest storm since Tropical Depression 26 formed when and where Corbyn forecast. It's not the "biggest storm" in the Carribean. The low-pressure formatation located off the coast on Nicaragua is, but it has neither name nor number, because the weather service does not give names or numbers to low pressure areas. At any given minute there are several dozens of low pressure areas and high pressure areas chasing each other around the world. The total amounts of energy expendatures of these system are more important than hurricanes in the global weather picture. Any theory which only deas with a few events and not the majority of weather is inherently defective. One theory, the scientific one which Corbyn spurns, explains both the highs & lows and tropical cyclones. That's the difference between science and superstition. Science exlains comprehensively. Piers Corbyn is known to attribute large planets for influencing the sun to emit "solar particles" and influence the weather... Corbyn has misrepresented himself as an "Astrophyicist". His theory of planetary influence over the sun causing storms on earth is properly called Astrology. There is no plausible elucidated mechanism whereby any influence from Jupiter on the Earth or Jupiter on the Sun can target specific geographical locations on earth to influence weather at detailed points on the planet... Well, you are not alone in applying so broad a definition of astrology. Yet it seems clear enough to me that the study of effects of the solar system on the sun is not inherently unscientific As a Moonie I expect you to recite Moonist Doctrines to keep sheeple superstitious and seperate from science. Corbyn's prodictions cannot be found in the archives of the web. Here's the google.com search for http://weatheraction.com/ http://tinyurl.com/cccrq Showing web page information for http://weatheraction.com/ Nor future or past predictions there. Here's the links to http://tinyurl.com/9d2p8 Results 4 linking to jakFLlpxPe0J:www.weatheraction.com/ Nor future or past predictions there. Here is all the pages on Corbyn's website known to google.com http://tinyurl.com/a7efb Results 1 - 1 of 1 from weatheraction.com You NEVER post links showing where you obtained these forecasts or press releases. They cannot be located anywhere on the web using google search engine. You are evidently on a private mail list. Corbyn has made statements which are blatently false and fraudulent. He morphs his predictions to fit the weather -- current example "major Tropical Storm or hurricane) has morphed to "tropical depression", although each of these terms has precise scientific definition. A "tropical depression" is not a major or minor "tropical storm" and it also is not a hurricane. You are aiding and abetting the commission of a science hoax by making any fuzzy morphing of the facts generated by satellites and hurricane hunter planes dropping dropsonde scientific instruments into this depression. Corbyn is a lying parasite on science, and you are a lying parasite on Corbyn. I'd like to mention that Corbyn's presentation to Institute of Physics included discussion of the importance of Earth's magnetic field too, including the role of changes in the field on climate. It was nice of the Institute of Physics to politely listen to Corbyn's presentation. Do you have a transcript we can read of what was said? Another case of absent links to non-information. It is true that Weather Action does not provide replicable methodology for public review. That is not a "wrong". They have freedom to make disclosures or withhold disclosures. They do not have freedom to make fraudulent statements regarding the historical record of storms, or make false statements about the known science of understanding storm genesis. You don't know how to discriminate between rights and wrongs. Or else you are acting as accomplice to frauds. Other scientists are sure free to choose to ignore the prospects for further publiic scientific inquiry. Scientific enquiry has debunked Corbyn's thesis. The Earth's magnetosphere operates at levels usually above level of weather. There are no known, no postualted, interactions which can form as the basis for providing targetted location-secific predictions far in advance. Corbyn cannot do it, and nobody else can either, using any elucidated principles of physics. I have stated that "intuition" has a known explored scientifically demonstrated existence. "Intuition" may be a mental computation process evaluating myriads of factors on a subconscious level, finally popping up some prediction into the conscious realm. The holder of the prediction produced by "intuition" may simply be wrong about the reasons why they hold a belief in the prediction. One cannot be more explicit lacking "Corbyn's Reasons" for believing his predictions -- they cannot be independently replicated and tested with vigor. Corbyn is not scientific. There is no hypothesis, tests, replication and reproduction, required to be "science". Whatever Corbyn is, it is not science until these conditions have been met. Corbyn is a "lucky guesser", whose luck partly requires post-hoc morphing of facts to conform to prediction, and morthing of terms in predictions to better conform to post-hoc reality. It's an age-old con-game. I suspect, however, that much more research will be done by many folks, despite the risk of defamatory ravings from peers and kooks alike. Corbyn's peers are kooks, and Schulin is an example of raving done by them, attempting to insert Moonie subversion of science by lying about Corbyn's weak success record, lying about his actual failure record, and erasing all embarrassing evidence from the record. |
#5
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In article .com,
"Science Cop" wrote, in part: Steve Schulin wrote: "Science Cop" wrote, in part: wrote: It's been pretty quiet in Carribbean since Roger made this comment. Here's yesterday's press release from the Solar Weather Technique forecaster: It wasn't quiet at all. ... Your point might be more appropro had my 'pretty quiet' comment been made in a vacuum rather than in the context provided by Roger, which you prefer to snip. Coppock's comment was that this has been a busy year with storms raging without relief every few days. I snipped it because the comments I was making was going to be long enough without carrying Coppock's comment not relevent to the points I was making. Well, if you hadn't snipped the context, perhaps you'd describe it better here and now too. ... Highly accurate predictions of Wilma's path were valuable -- Corbyn was silent. ... I'm not sure the routine scope of his forecasting. Maybe he'll be higher profile on such matters next year. ... Predictions on tropical depression #27, now defunct, are worthless -- Corbyn crowed. Well, the Solar Weather Technique has shown some forecasting skill, as described in the peer reviewed article previously cited here in sci.environment. I think Corbyn's recent forecasts of severe weather will be worth something to folks deciding whether to purchase his forecasts in the future. TODAY 14th Nov a new Developing Tropical Depression/Storm - 'Storm 27' formed* in the Carribbean confirming the Weather Action long range forecast for formation of such a storm in the time window 13th-16th THIS IS NOT WHAT WAS PREDICTED. Specifically a "major Tropical Storm or hurricane" was predicted. A "tropical depression" was never mentioned. That's true enough. The fact remains that the biggest storm since Tropical Depression 26 formed when and where Corbyn forecast. It's not the "biggest storm" in the Carribean. The low-pressure formatation located off the coast on Nicaragua is, but it has neither name nor number, because the weather service does not give names or numbers to low pressure areas. At any given minute there are several dozens of low pressure areas and high pressure areas chasing each other around the world. Your definition of storm seems broader than is typical. How many of the areas you mention have surface winds that meet the tropical depression criteria, speed-wise, for example? The total amounts of energy expendatures of these system are more important than hurricanes in the global weather picture. Any theory which only deas with a few events and not the majority of weather is inherently defective. One theory, the scientific one which Corbyn spurns, explains both the highs & lows and tropical cyclones. That's the difference between science and superstition. Science exlains comprehensively. Well, I'd love to learn of a comprehensive theory of climate. And if your notion of comprehensive was more typical than your notion of storm, I'd be interested in how a comprehensive explanation could be so poor, prediction-wise, beyond the very near term. The UK Met Office has in recent weeks forecast a very cold winter for British Isles, for example. I recall that when Canadian government was way off on seasonal forecast in recent years, their top forecast official made public apology. If the UK forecasters similarly miss the mark this time, is there anybody here who doubts that "global warming" will be prominently proferred as reason why it wasn't so cold? ... As a Moonie I expect you to recite Moonist Doctrines to keep sheeple superstitious and seperate from science. Why do you imagine me to be a Moonie? Corbyn's prodictions cannot be found in the archives of the web. Here's the google.com search for http://weatheraction.com/ http://tinyurl.com/cccrq Showing web page information for http://weatheraction.com/ Nor future or past predictions there. Here's the links to http://tinyurl.com/9d2p8 Results 4 linking to jakFLlpxPe0J:www.weatheraction.com/ Nor future or past predictions there. Here is all the pages on Corbyn's website known to google.com http://tinyurl.com/a7efb Results 1 - 1 of 1 from weatheraction.com You NEVER post links showing where you obtained these forecasts or press releases. They cannot be located anywhere on the web using google search engine. You are evidently on a private mail list. The only place I've seen the WeatherAction news releases is the yahoo group called ClimateSceptics. Corbyn has made statements which are blatently false and fraudulent. He morphs his predictions to fit the weather -- current example "major Tropical Storm or hurricane) has morphed to "tropical depression", although each of these terms has precise scientific definition. A "tropical depression" is not a major or minor "tropical storm" and it also is not a hurricane. It's true enough that the expectation of tropical storm or hurricane was not fulfilled by Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven. At 4 AM on November 15, 2005, the National Hurricane Center discussed TD27, noting, in part, that "THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN." That Corbyn publicly expressed expectation about three weeks prior that such a storm would form around Nov 13-16 is clear enough. You are aiding and abetting the commission of a science hoax by making any fuzzy morphing of the facts generated by satellites and hurricane hunter planes dropping dropsonde scientific instruments into this depression. Corbyn is a lying parasite on science, and you are a lying parasite on Corbyn. Well, I'm just a guy who sees your kinds of ad hominem arguments a lot from folks who are alarmed by CO2 emissions. I try not to let my opinion of you as a person detract from any weight of your arguments. I'd like to mention that Corbyn's presentation to Institute of Physics included discussion of the importance of Earth's magnetic field too, including the role of changes in the field on climate. It was nice of the Institute of Physics to politely listen to Corbyn's presentation. Do you have a transcript we can read of what was said? Another case of absent links to non-information. I've previously posted link to a copy of the very interesting presentation slides archived at Institute of Physics. Please feel welcome to let me know if you have trouble finding the powerpoint file. It is true that Weather Action does not provide replicable methodology for public review. That is not a "wrong". They have freedom to make disclosures or withhold disclosures. They do not have freedom to make fraudulent statements regarding the historical record of storms, or make false statements about the known science of understanding storm genesis. You don't know how to discriminate between rights and wrongs. Or else you are acting as accomplice to frauds. There's other possibilities. I don't claim that Corbyn is right. I do, however, observe that the folks who say he must be wrong don't seem to have any good reasons. And that, kookAmongUs, includes you. Other scientists are sure free to choose to ignore the prospects for further publiic scientific inquiry. Scientific enquiry has debunked Corbyn's thesis. The Earth's magnetosphere operates at levels usually above level of weather. There are no known, no postualted, interactions which can form as the basis for providing targetted location-secific predictions far in advance. Corbyn cannot do it, and nobody else can either, using any elucidated principles of physics. Yet the peer review literature includes a paper describing earlier version(s) of his Solar Weather Technique as yielding skillful predictions. I have stated that "intuition" has a known explored scientifically demonstrated existence. "Intuition" may be a mental computation process evaluating myriads of factors on a subconscious level, finally popping up some prediction into the conscious realm. The holder of the prediction produced by "intuition" may simply be wrong about the reasons why they hold a belief in the prediction. One cannot be more explicit lacking "Corbyn's Reasons" for believing his predictions -- they cannot be independently replicated and tested with vigor. Corbyn is not scientific. There is no hypothesis, tests, replication and reproduction, required to be "science". Whatever Corbyn is, it is not science until these conditions have been met. Corbyn is a "lucky guesser", whose luck partly requires post-hoc morphing of facts to conform to prediction, and morthing of terms in predictions to better conform to post-hoc reality. It's an age-old con-game. I'm glad we agree that replicability is a pillar of science. But just because he keeps his proprietary methodology secret does not mean that his work is unreplicable in the sense that "If it ain't replicable, it ain't science." If I could jump to unwarranted conclusions as easily as you, perhaps I'd agree with you more often. I suspect, however, that much more research will be done by many folks, despite the risk of defamatory ravings from peers and kooks alike. Corbyn's peers are kooks, and Schulin is an example of raving done by them, attempting to insert Moonie subversion of science by lying about Corbyn's weak success record, lying about his actual failure record, and erasing all embarrassing evidence from the record. Your claims might be more persuasive if you would back up your blather, bub. Very truly, Steve Schulin http://www.nuclear.com |
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Steve Schulin wrote:
Coppock's comment was that this has been a busy year with storms raging without relief every few days. I snipped it because the comments I was making was going to be long enough without carrying Coppock's comment not relevent to the points I was making. Well, if you hadn't snipped the context, perhaps you'd describe it better here and now too. It wasn't relevent then. It's still not relevent now. No point in filling a message with irrelevent baggage. Highly accurate predictions of Wilma's path were valuable -- Corbyn was silent. ... I'm not sure the routine scope of his forecasting. Maybe he'll be higher profile on such matters next year. Since we don't really know what he forecasts, since there is no record of specific forecasts on his website or anywhere else, we can't comment on those. The only comment we have was made by you, purporting to be a press release that was never issued to the press, never reported by any press, and is not even posted on his own WeatherAction.com website. We have no information how this undocumented "press release" came into your possession, and no way to verify that you haven't alterred this document in passage. There is no verification trail of authorship or integrity. All we have is this, posted by you... http://tinyurl.com/8n5lx And all that is turns out to be a piddling 34 mph node in a broad 20-25 mph seas two weeks before the fact, but claiming much bigger stuff which did not occur. What we don't have is a much more interesting omission of events which happened just prior to that prediction. Corbyn FAILED to predict category 3 Hurricane BETA in the same seas just five days earlier. Corbyn FAILED to predict Tropical Storm ALPHA four days earlier than BETA. Corbyn FAILED to predict the STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER only two weeks prior to making this prediction. Ask yourself: if I know what I am doing and I want people to take me seriously, do I predict the greatest storm in the record books or the closest thing to a failed storm you can get and still leave a tickmark as TD #27 in the record books? Corbyn not only FAILED to predict any storm which got a name, but he was WRONG in the only prediction he actually made. You are a Moonie according to the doctrine of "If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, has feathers like a duck, looks like duck" then it is a duck. When you do not deviate 1% from Moonies you are identical to Moonies, and since one Moonie is indistinguishable with all other Moonies, there's no scientific means to determine your degrees of non-mooniness. Corbyn very well may sell a lot of forecasts to industry as he claims, just like S. Fred Singer sells a lot of climate consultations to Coal and Oil clients. The predictions are thrown right in the trashcan -- he's hired to sell the "solar leprechan theory" that creates the illusion of that there is unsettled science over global warming. Corbyn's a (possibly Moonie) Crook. Singer is a Known-Moonie Crook. You are a likely-Moonie Crook. The Corbyn Slideshow is a bunch of bogus pseudo-science. I'm surprised the Institute of Physics didn't pelt him with rotten tomatos for putting on such odious crap. http://groups.iop.org/EG/05/03/05031...04_21Jun05.ppt |
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Steve Schulin wrote:
"Science Cop" wrote: A "tropical depression" was never mentioned. That's true enough. The fact remains that the biggest storm since Tropical Depression 26 formed when and where Corbyn forecast. So a few puffy clouds would work, as long as they were the biggest puffy clouds since the astrology reading. Yawn. Three strikes. No thunderstorms, no tornadoes, and no hurricane. Not one. But please do keep entering the astrology based predictions. Sooner or later one is going to work out. -- Phil Hays -- Clues for sale or rent, Hints for just fifty cents. No trolls, no spam, no twits. Only fools smoke them cigarettes. |
#8
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Steve Schulin wrote:
Well, the Solar Weather Technique has shown some forecasting skill, as described in the peer reviewed article previously cited here in sci.environment. Three forecasts, three failures. Not much skill can be seen. But do keep posting. There is nothing like a record to highlight the losers. -- Phil Hays -- Clues for sale or rent, Hints for just fifty cents. No trolls, no spam, no twits. Only fools smoke them cigarettes. |
#9
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Nov 18, 2005: A notice from National Hurricane Center this afternoon
began with "TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN RE-GENERATES...BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GAMMA". http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005...lic.012.shtml? Very truly, Steve Schulin http://www.nuclear.com |
#10
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![]() Steve Schulin wrote: Nov 18, 2005: A notice from National Hurricane Center this afternoon began with "TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN RE-GENERATES...BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GAMMA". http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005...lic.012.shtml? Very truly, Steve Schulin http://www.nuclear.com Just because I knew you might do this, the record was made in the archives with unforgeable date/timestamps (unless on works for google.com and 30,000 other sci.environment distribution nodes). http://tinyurl.com/8h2uw Date: 17 Nov 2005 20:51:15 http://tinyurl.com/9vgkd Florida, 12:31 pm EST. ==================================== Just for the record: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Atlantic - Carib - Gulf of Mexico There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time. Eastern Pacific (out to 140°W) There are no tropical cyclones in the East Pacific at this time. ==================================== Your job, Schulin-Corbyn-Moonies, is to explain where the solar leprechans were when there were "NO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC AT THIS TIME". If Corbyn-Schulin-Moonies meant to predict November 18th for the formation of a Tropical Storm, nobody was stopping them. Corbyn specifically claimed the dead stillborn TD #27 on November 16th. On November 17th: "NO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC AT THIS TIME". No solar particles, no storm fairies, no leprechans, nothing, Nada, Ziltch. http://tinyurl.com/da2xw Tropical Storm GAMMA -- Nov 18, 2005 The National Hurricane Center has pulled a fast one. The previously identified Tropical Disturbance hundreds of miles from TD #27 has been given the continuity of TD #27, even though both were clearly shown simultaneously existing on satellite photos. This "quantum leap" mis-serves historical accuracy by not creating the 28th Tropical Depression of a record-breaking season. Storm centers do not leap hundreds of miles away between issuances of every-3-hour advisories. TD #28 developed all by itself, and partially simultaneously with the existence of TD #27, although it did engulf a large portion of the outer rainbands of TD #27 when the convection center of TD #27 broke down. One storm eating the remnants of another is not unusual -- we saw this just recently when Wilma ate the remnants of Tropical Storm Alpha. That did not turn Wilma into Alpha, nor should TD #28 be turned into #27 by absorbing #27s remnants. NOTICE the specific language: "NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA" for TD #28, and "THE AIRCRAFT ALSO INVESTIGATED THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS". These are two geographical locations, TWO DIFFERENT STORM SYSTEMS... The archive has morphed on the website. Note the differences of date/time stamps... http://tinyurl.com/dex8m Attention Astrologers Steve Schulin & Piers Corbyn: Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../172024.shtml? Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT 000 WONT41 KNHC 172024 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 425 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS NOT DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WHILE THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IN THE LOW...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO INVESTIGATED THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND DID NOT FIND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE PLANE REPORTED WINDS OF NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM. EVEN IF DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ -------- Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT 000 WONT41 KNHC 181400 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY. IF ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ |
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