I took this from the Met Office Site:

This forecast is produced using a combination of statistical models, such as
the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and complex climate models with
interpretation by operational forecasters.
Our latest predictions indicate a colder than average winter for much of
Europe. If this holds true, parts of the UK - especially southern regions -
are expected to have temperatures below normal.

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the
impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a
winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

Confidence in long-range predictions is relatively low compared to our
normal short-period forecasts. Typically the broad features of the forecast
for the European region are correct two out of every three occasions. Using
a traffic light analogy we consider that people should be on amber alert for
the prospect of a colder-than-average winter.

There is also an indication for a drier-than-average winter over much of the
UK.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

These are the values I recorded during the 1995/96 winter

December 1995
Lowest Day Time Temp = 0.4 Temps over the month were on the cold side
Lowest Night Time Temp = -3.1 Frosty end to the month

January 1996
Lowest Day Time Temp = -0.8 Very mild until the last week
Lowest Night Time Temp = -3.9 The last week was frosty

February 1996
Lowest Day Time Temp = 1.2 Generally on the mild side
Lowest Night Time Temp = -1.8 Several frosty spells throughout the month

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

December 1996
Lowest Day Time Temp = -1.0 The last week was cold
Lowest Night Time Temp = -3.0 The last week was very frosty

January 1997
Lowest Day Time Temp = -2.0 First 11 days very cold
Lowest Night Time Temp = -4.4 First 10 days of month had a frost. There was
a frost every night from 23rd December '96, to 10th January '97 ( 19
consecutive days )

February 1997
Lowest Day Time Temp = 6.3 Extremely mild
Lowest Night Time Temp = 0.7 Mostly mild


The period from December 23rd 1996 to 10th January 1997 was by far the
coldest such period in the last 10 years, at least where I was living in
Gillingham, Kent at the time. Even this cold spell pails into
insignificance compared with February 1991 and even that doesn't come close
to what I would consider the last really severe winter in 1987 ( January ).
All in all then, it looks like being a fairly average 90's style winter with
one month with a CET of 2.5. What's all the fuss about????

Shaun Pudwell.

In article ,
Shaun Pudwell writes:
I took this from the Met Office Site:
snip

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the
impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a
winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

snip
All in all then, it looks like being a fairly average 90's style winter with
one month with a CET of 2.5. What's all the fuss about????

Saying that the winter is expected to be colder than those experienced
since 1995-6 (or indeed 1996-7) doesn't preclude the possibility that it
will prove to be colder than 1995-6 as well. But no doubt if recent
winters had been as cold as those that we had become accustomed to
between say 1978 and 1987, the Met Office wouldn't have thought a
warning necessary. It's because people (and the utilities in particular)
may have been lulled into a false sense of security that a "heads up" is
prudent.

Also the CET for the winter as a whole, or for the coldest month,
doesn't tell the whole story. Some areas could be colder than "Central
England". Also a month with a CET of 2.5 could be slightly cold all the
way through, or could have say two mild weeks and two weeks of really
severe conditions. The latter would obviously be much more worthy of a
warning.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

That's all true, however they are talking about the winter overall, not just
a two week period. My reasons for being concerned are that I live on an
island ( Sheppey ) with awkward access at the best of times. A prolonged
cold/snowy winter would create major problems here. We got temporarily cut
off at the beginning of March during heavy snow and last winter was very
mild overall!!!

Shaun Pudwell.


"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Shaun Pudwell writes:
I took this from the Met Office Site:
snip

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given
the
impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a
winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

snip
All in all then, it looks like being a fairly average 90's style winter
with
one month with a CET of 2.5. What's all the fuss about????

Saying that the winter is expected to be colder than those experienced
since 1995-6 (or indeed 1996-7) doesn't preclude the possibility that it
will prove to be colder than 1995-6 as well. But no doubt if recent
winters had been as cold as those that we had become accustomed to
between say 1978 and 1987, the Met Office wouldn't have thought a
warning necessary. It's because people (and the utilities in particular)
may have been lulled into a false sense of security that a "heads up" is
prudent.

Also the CET for the winter as a whole, or for the coldest month,
doesn't tell the whole story. Some areas could be colder than "Central
England". Also a month with a CET of 2.5 could be slightly cold all the
way through, or could have say two mild weeks and two weeks of really
severe conditions. The latter would obviously be much more worthy of a
warning.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...
I took this from the Met Office Site:

snip

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have
given the
impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is
for a
winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

snip
All in all then, it looks like being a fairly average 90's style
winter with one month with a CET of 2.5. What's all the fuss
about????


What fuss would that be ?
From your own interpretation of the warning (if it is a warning), there
is a good possibilty of a colder winter than we have been used to
recently, nothing more. The Met Office have also let us know that
interested parties have been advised.

Or were you referring to the response of others to the information ?

Regards,
Tom

Shaun Pudwell wrote in message
...
That's all true, however they are talking about the winter overall, not
just
a two week period. My reasons for being concerned are that I live on an
island ( Sheppey ) with awkward access at the best of times. A prolonged
cold/snowy winter would create major problems here. We got temporarily
cut
off at the beginning of March during heavy snow and last winter was very
mild overall!!!

Shaun Pudwell.

Shaun,

We are cut off temporarily here most winters, it's part of life here. We are
sometimes unable to get home, most of the time it is getting out in the
morning that is the problem. It doesn't usually last for long and doesn't
concern us unduly. It is ceratinly worse further up the dales and into
Scotland. If you are as worried as you appear to be, why don't you move? The
Isle of Sheppey isn't that far from civilisation, surely?

Best wishes,

--
Ken Cook
Copley (253m, 830ft) & Copley Lead Mill (218m, 715ft)
5 miles north of Barnard Castle, County Durham.
(All times GMT)
http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/copley

You can't go down Sheerness High Street without hearing someone referring to
the expected cold winter. Every man and his dog is talking about the
possibility of the island being cut off. To be honest with you, I can't see
the MO issuing an amber alert unless they expected something quite serious.
Just another 90's style winter is nothing to worry about, now an 80's style
winter is a different story!

Shaun Pudwell.


"Tom Allen" wrote in message
...

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...
I took this from the Met Office Site:

snip

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given
the
impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a
winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

snip
All in all then, it looks like being a fairly average 90's style winter
with one month with a CET of 2.5. What's all the fuss about????


What fuss would that be ?
From your own interpretation of the warning (if it is a warning), there is
a good possibilty of a colder winter than we have been used to recently,
nothing more. The Met Office have also let us know that interested parties
have been advised.

Or were you referring to the response of others to the information ?

Regards,
Tom

Shaun Pudwell wrote:
You can't go down Sheerness High Street without hearing someone referring to
the expected cold winter. Every man and his dog is talking about the
possibility of the island being cut off. To be honest with you, I can't see
the MO issuing an amber alert unless they expected something quite serious.
Just another 90's style winter is nothing to worry about, now an 80's style
winter is a different story!

I know quite a few people from this side of The Swale that would say
that Sheppey being cut off was a good thing

Why's it so easy for the island to get cut off? Surely it can't be that
hard to keep the bridge clear for traffic?

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail

"Jonathan Stott" wrote in message
...
Shaun Pudwell wrote:
You can't go down Sheerness High Street without hearing someone referring
to the expected cold winter. Every man and his dog is talking about the
possibility of the island being cut off. To be honest with you, I can't
see the MO issuing an amber alert unless they expected something quite
serious. Just another 90's style winter is nothing to worry about, now an
80's style winter is a different story!

I know quite a few people from this side of The Swale that would say that
Sheppey being cut off was a good thing

Why's it so easy for the island to get cut off? Surely it can't be that
hard to keep the bridge clear for traffic?

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail

Based on the fact that it took over an hour to get off the island this
afternoon cos of some twit then I wouldn't hold my breath for what can be
achieved by the weather.

Si

Sheppey was cut off for weeks in 1987 and I believe Warden Bay had no power
for twelve days. Food had to be air lifted in. That's what I'm concerned
about.

The nearest town with a shopping centre is Sheerness and that's over nine
miles away along minor B roads. Then we have that awful lifting bridge (
The Kingsferry Bridge ). To add to the pain, there are now miles and miles
of road works associated with the new £100 million fixed span bridge that is
currently under construction.

Shaun Pudwell,
2M ASL,
Warden Bay, Isle-of-Sheppey, North Kent.


"SiK" wrote in message
...

"Jonathan Stott" wrote in message
...
Shaun Pudwell wrote:
You can't go down Sheerness High Street without hearing someone
referring to the expected cold winter. Every man and his dog is talking
about the possibility of the island being cut off. To be honest with
you, I can't see the MO issuing an amber alert unless they expected
something quite serious. Just another 90's style winter is nothing to
worry about, now an 80's style winter is a different story!

I know quite a few people from this side of The Swale that would say that
Sheppey being cut off was a good thing

Why's it so easy for the island to get cut off? Surely it can't be that
hard to keep the bridge clear for traffic?

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail

Based on the fact that it took over an hour to get off the island this
afternoon cos of some twit then I wouldn't hold my breath for what can be
achieved by the weather.

Si

Shaun Pudwell wrote:
Sheppey was cut off for weeks in 1987 and I believe Warden Bay had no power
for twelve days. Food had to be air lifted in. That's what I'm concerned
about.

I guess that's one of the perils of living on an island. I'd say it kind
of makes things quite exciting - I especially liked the 1987 winter
where I was because we had to cook dinner over the gas fire in the
lounge when the power went off! Luckily it didn't go off for 12 days though.

The nearest town with a shopping centre is Sheerness and that's over nine
miles away along minor B roads. Then we have that awful lifting bridge (
The Kingsferry Bridge ). To add to the pain, there are now miles and miles
of road works associated with the new £100 million fixed span bridge that is
currently under construction.

Surely that's only a temporary problem to alleviate the existing
problems of the lift bridge? When does the new bridge open?

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail