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Old October 19th 05, 02:58 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4355946.stm

Very strange,considering the Met have always said you cant predict more than
5 days ahead with any real accuracy!!!



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Old October 19th 05, 06:25 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"

Rupert wrote:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4355946.stm

Very strange,considering the Met have always said you cant predict more than
5 days ahead with any real accuracy!!!


As far ahead as five days!!!!
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Old October 19th 05, 06:52 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"

In article ,
Rupert writes:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4355946.stm

Very strange,considering the Met have always said you cant predict more than
5 days ahead with any real accuracy!!!


You can't forecast the weather on a day by day basis beyond about 5
days. However that's very different from forecasting the general
character of a season.
--
John Hall
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick
themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."
Winston Churchill (1874-1965)
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Old October 19th 05, 07:17 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"

John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Rupert writes:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4355946.stm

Very strange,considering the Met have always said you cant predict more than
5 days ahead with any real accuracy!!!



You can't forecast the weather on a day by day basis beyond about 5
days. However that's very different from forecasting the general
character of a season.


What I find quite fascinating is that there is obviously a firm belief
in the office that this may come off.

--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
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Old October 19th 05, 07:40 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Col Col is offline
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Default Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"


"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...

What I find quite fascinating is that there is obviously a firm belief
in the office that this may come off.


It was only a 65% chance this morning

We always get this kind of thing at this time a year from various
weather forecasting 'authorities' which shall remain nameless
but we all know who they are.....
However I don't remember the Met Office ever being even as
sure as this, even though it's still quite a guarded response.
Usually they (quite rightly IMHO) refuse to be be drawn citing the
fact that the winter is too far off for any meaningful forecast to
be made.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.




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Old October 20th 05, 05:27 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"

But why is a winter that is only likely to be the coldest in 10 years
classed as "severe"? Surely a "severe" winter would be at the very
least one which matched the cold winters of the mid 80s, in other words
it would have to be the coldest in 20 years to at all be called
"severe". Or does "severe" mean "temperatures below the 1961-90
average"?

Nick

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Old October 20th 05, 07:54 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"


wrote in message
ups.com...
But why is a winter that is only likely to be the coldest in 10 years
classed as "severe"? Surely a "severe" winter would be at the very
least one which matched the cold winters of the mid 80s, in other words
it would have to be the coldest in 20 years to at all be called
"severe". Or does "severe" mean "temperatures below the 1961-90
average"?

Nick

I think severe these days is any weather which might result in snow.



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Old October 20th 05, 08:19 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"

wrote in message
ups.com...
But why is a winter that is only likely to be the coldest in 10 years
classed as "severe"? Surely a "severe" winter would be at the very
least one which matched the cold winters of the mid 80s, in other words
it would have to be the coldest in 20 years to at all be called
"severe". Or does "severe" mean "temperatures below the 1961-90
average"?

Nick


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...r20050926.html
Indicates the possibility of a 'colder-than-average winter' and is
consistent with -ve NAO forecast and the latest seasonal output from the
dynamical model.

The "66% chance of a severe winter" in the title of this thread looks like
pure spin, to put it politely.

Jon.




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Old October 20th 05, 08:21 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"

wrote in message
ups.com...
But why is a winter that is only likely to be the coldest in 10 years
classed as "severe"? Surely a "severe" winter would be at the very
least one which matched the cold winters of the mid 80s, in other words
it would have to be the coldest in 20 years to at all be called
"severe". Or does "severe" mean "temperatures below the 1961-90
average"?

Nick


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...r20050926.html
Indicates the possibility of a 'colder-than-average winter' and is
consistent with the -ve NAO forecast and the latest seasonal output from the
dynamical model.

The "66% chance of a severe winter" in the title of this thread looks like
pure spin, to put it politely.

Jon.




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