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| uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
October 19th 05, 02:58 PM
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Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4355946.stm
Very strange,considering the Met have always said you cant predict more than 5 days ahead with any real accuracy!!! |
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#2
October 19th 05, 06:25 PM
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Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"
Rupert wrote:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4355946.stm Very strange,considering the Met have always said you cant predict more than 5 days ahead with any real accuracy!!! As far ahead as five days!!!! |
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#3
October 19th 05, 06:52 PM
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Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"
In article ,
Rupert writes: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4355946.stm Very strange,considering the Met have always said you cant predict more than 5 days ahead with any real accuracy!!! You can't forecast the weather on a day by day basis beyond about 5 days. However that's very different from forecasting the general character of a season. -- John Hall "Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened." Winston Churchill (1874-1965) |
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#4
October 19th 05, 07:17 PM
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Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"
John Hall wrote:
In article , Rupert writes: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4355946.stm Very strange,considering the Met have always said you cant predict more than 5 days ahead with any real accuracy!!! You can't forecast the weather on a day by day basis beyond about 5 days. However that's very different from forecasting the general character of a season. What I find quite fascinating is that there is obviously a firm belief in the office that this may come off. -- Keith (Southend) 'Weather Home & Abroad' http://www.southendweather.net |
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#5
October 19th 05, 07:40 PM
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Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"
"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message ... What I find quite fascinating is that there is obviously a firm belief in the office that this may come off. It was only a 65% chance this morning  We always get this kind of thing at this time a year from various weather forecasting 'authorities' which shall remain nameless but we all know who they are..... However I don't remember the Met Office ever being even as sure as this, even though it's still quite a guarded response. Usually they (quite rightly IMHO) refuse to be be drawn citing the fact that the winter is too far off for any meaningful forecast to be made. Col -- Bolton, Lancashire. 160m asl. |
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#6
October 20th 05, 05:27 PM
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Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"
But why is a winter that is only likely to be the coldest in 10 years
classed as "severe"? Surely a "severe" winter would be at the very least one which matched the cold winters of the mid 80s, in other words it would have to be the coldest in 20 years to at all be called "severe". Or does "severe" mean "temperatures below the 1961-90 average"? Nick |
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#7
October 20th 05, 07:54 PM
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Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"
wrote in message ups.com... But why is a winter that is only likely to be the coldest in 10 years classed as "severe"? Surely a "severe" winter would be at the very least one which matched the cold winters of the mid 80s, in other words it would have to be the coldest in 20 years to at all be called "severe". Or does "severe" mean "temperatures below the 1961-90 average"? Nick I think severe these days is any weather which might result in snow. |
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#8
October 20th 05, 08:19 PM
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Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"
wrote in message
ups.com... But why is a winter that is only likely to be the coldest in 10 years classed as "severe"? Surely a "severe" winter would be at the very least one which matched the cold winters of the mid 80s, in other words it would have to be the coldest in 20 years to at all be called "severe". Or does "severe" mean "temperatures below the 1961-90 average"? Nick http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...r20050926.html Indicates the possibility of a 'colder-than-average winter' and is consistent with -ve NAO forecast and the latest seasonal output from the dynamical model. The "66% chance of a severe winter" in the title of this thread looks like pure spin, to put it politely. Jon. |
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#9
October 20th 05, 08:21 PM
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Met office" 66% chance of severe winter"
wrote in message
ups.com... But why is a winter that is only likely to be the coldest in 10 years classed as "severe"? Surely a "severe" winter would be at the very least one which matched the cold winters of the mid 80s, in other words it would have to be the coldest in 20 years to at all be called "severe". Or does "severe" mean "temperatures below the 1961-90 average"? Nick http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...r20050926.html Indicates the possibility of a 'colder-than-average winter' and is consistent with the -ve NAO forecast and the latest seasonal output from the dynamical model. The "66% chance of a severe winter" in the title of this thread looks like pure spin, to put it politely. Jon. |
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