================================================== ==============================
===

This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.

================================================== ==============================
===


Summary valid for Sunday 25/12/05 to Saturday 31/12/05
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 22/12/05 1330 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

For this week's forecast I shall divide the UK into two.

Scotland, Northern Ireland and NW England:

High confidence for a dry day on Christmas Day. Broken cloud after a slight
frost in places. Risk of fog patches lingering well into the day in a few
places, possibly Central Lowlands. Very cold where fog lingers otherwise
temperatures just below normal with light winds. Confidence high.

From Boxing Day to Friday, probably staying mainly dry, but turning much colder
as an anticyclone persists from Scotland to Scandinavia with light to moderate
variable or east winds. Frost and fog at night. 40% chance of turning milder in
NW Scotland by the end of the week with a strengthening SW wind bringing some
rain and drizzle. Chance of a few snow flurries at any time over higher parts of
NW England and parts of eastern Scotland. Confidence moderate.

Low confidence that it will stay mainly dry, cold and settled throughout next
weekend into the New Year. Low risk milder with rain at times spreading down
from the NW.

England and Wales:

High confidence that Christmas day will be dry, rather cloudy and rather cold.
Possibly a slight frost at first and in the evening. Risk of a few fog patches
in the morning. 30% chance of some rain and hail showers pushing into East
Anglia and Kent late in the day. These possible turning wintry after dusk.

Moderate to high confidence that it will turn colder on Boxing Day and stay dry
in Wales and SW England with frost and a few fog patches at first with a light
east wind developing. The rest of England will also turn colder with a moderate
east wind setting in. This will bring in wintry showers to eastern areas, mainly
East Anglia and SE England, possibly turning to snow after dusk. Moderate
confidence in showers.

On Tuesday and Wednesday there is a 50% chance of a moderate to fresh east wind
setting in everywhere bringing spells of snow. Snow most likely in eastern and
southern areas where some heavy falls are possible over high ground. Certainly
cold everywhere, but a 50% chance that many places will stay mainly dry too with
just a few sleet or snow showers in the SE and East Anglia.

For the rest of the week, high confidence of staying cold. Low confidence that
many places will continue to see outbreaks of snow in a moderate to fresh east
wind.

So to summarise, Scotland and Northern Ireland most likely to stay mainly dry
and cold. Perhaps milder in the NW later. England and Wales likely to have a
good deal of dry weather too but an increasing risk, now at 50%, of outbreaks of
snow spreading westwards as the week progresses. Some heavy falls possible on
high ground. This needs watching carefully, as the situation is ripe for a build
of pressure over Scandinavia with a strong easterly setting in over the UK,
perhaps heralding a severe wintry spell.

I'm not attempting a forecast for the following week this time as confidence
would be extremely low.

For Dartmoor next week, it looks like being a cold one with some superb winter
walking conditions although wind chill will be an issue after Monday above 500m
with a keen east wind setting in. 40% chance of some fairly persistent light
snow from Tuesday onwards. 20% chance of some heavy snow giving excellent
sledging and snow boarding conditions.

Well whatever the weather I'd now like to take this opportunity to wish all my
readers a very happy Christmas and a successful New Year.

Will Hand

Chief forecaster HMO/USW


" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).


mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

England and Wales:

High confidence that Christmas day will be dry, rather cloudy and rather
cold.
Possibly a slight frost at first and in the evening. Risk of a few fog
patches
in the morning. 30% chance of some rain and hail showers pushing into East
Anglia and Kent late in the day. These possible turning wintry after dusk.

Thanks for your forecast, Will.
Rain showers possibly turning "wintry" after dusk on Christmas Day !!!!!

I like that bit :-)

Brendan

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...

England and Wales:

High confidence that Christmas day will be dry, rather cloudy and rather
cold.
Possibly a slight frost at first and in the evening. Risk of a few fog
patches
in the morning. 30% chance of some rain and hail showers pushing into
East
Anglia and Kent late in the day. These possible turning wintry after
dusk.

Thanks for your forecast, Will.
Rain showers possibly turning "wintry" after dusk on Christmas Day !!!!!

I like that bit :-)

Brendan




So basically with that forecast was... i dont know

nguk wrote:

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...





So basically with that forecast was... i dont know

No, Will didn't say he doesn't know, just that he's not certain -
that's the point of the qualifiers "low confidence" "40%" etc.

Martin

Thanks for all the forecasts during the year Will
Not too happy with your Scottish forecast for the coming week :-)
Sounds like we might just get back to the mild wet weather we having
been having here recently :-(

Whatever happens though I hope you have the Merriest of Christmases
and the Happiest of New Years and hope you keep these "Next Week's
WEather" coming!!!
Elizabeth in Renfrewshire, Scotland.
Removex to reply

Thanks for this and all the other forecasts. Fully appreciate why there is
uncertainty and also that you use them.

Happy Christmas,
Dave
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==========================
====
===

This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at
the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility
whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit
of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and
wish to
share freely with others.


================================================== ==========================
====
===


Summary valid for Sunday 25/12/05 to Saturday 31/12/05
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 22/12/05 1330 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

For this week's forecast I shall divide the UK into two.

Scotland, Northern Ireland and NW England:

High confidence for a dry day on Christmas Day. Broken cloud after a
slight
frost in places. Risk of fog patches lingering well into the day in a few
places, possibly Central Lowlands. Very cold where fog lingers otherwise
temperatures just below normal with light winds. Confidence high.

From Boxing Day to Friday, probably staying mainly dry, but turning much
colder
as an anticyclone persists from Scotland to Scandinavia with light to
moderate
variable or east winds. Frost and fog at night. 40% chance of turning
milder in
NW Scotland by the end of the week with a strengthening SW wind bringing
some
rain and drizzle. Chance of a few snow flurries at any time over higher
parts of
NW England and parts of eastern Scotland. Confidence moderate.

Low confidence that it will stay mainly dry, cold and settled throughout
next
weekend into the New Year. Low risk milder with rain at times spreading
down
from the NW.

England and Wales:

High confidence that Christmas day will be dry, rather cloudy and rather
cold.
Possibly a slight frost at first and in the evening. Risk of a few fog
patches
in the morning. 30% chance of some rain and hail showers pushing into East
Anglia and Kent late in the day. These possible turning wintry after dusk.

Moderate to high confidence that it will turn colder on Boxing Day and
stay dry
in Wales and SW England with frost and a few fog patches at first with a
light
east wind developing. The rest of England will also turn colder with a
moderate
east wind setting in. This will bring in wintry showers to eastern areas,
mainly
East Anglia and SE England, possibly turning to snow after dusk. Moderate
confidence in showers.

On Tuesday and Wednesday there is a 50% chance of a moderate to fresh east
wind
setting in everywhere bringing spells of snow. Snow most likely in eastern
and
southern areas where some heavy falls are possible over high ground.
Certainly
cold everywhere, but a 50% chance that many places will stay mainly dry
too with
just a few sleet or snow showers in the SE and East Anglia.

For the rest of the week, high confidence of staying cold. Low confidence
that
many places will continue to see outbreaks of snow in a moderate to fresh
east
wind.

So to summarise, Scotland and Northern Ireland most likely to stay mainly
dry
and cold. Perhaps milder in the NW later. England and Wales likely to have
a
good deal of dry weather too but an increasing risk, now at 50%, of
outbreaks of
snow spreading westwards as the week progresses. Some heavy falls possible
on
high ground. This needs watching carefully, as the situation is ripe for a
build
of pressure over Scandinavia with a strong easterly setting in over the
UK,
perhaps heralding a severe wintry spell.

I'm not attempting a forecast for the following week this time as
confidence
would be extremely low.

For Dartmoor next week, it looks like being a cold one with some superb
winter
walking conditions although wind chill will be an issue after Monday above
500m
with a keen east wind setting in. 40% chance of some fairly persistent
light
snow from Tuesday onwards. 20% chance of some heavy snow giving excellent
sledging and snow boarding conditions.

Well whatever the weather I'd now like to take this opportunity to wish
all my
readers a very happy Christmas and a successful New Year.

Will Hand

Chief forecaster HMO/USW


" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).


mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

Will Hand wrote:

Well whatever the weather I'd now like to take this opportunity to wish all my
readers a very happy Christmas and a successful New Year.

Will Hand

Will,

Thank you very much for all your hard work during the year. Your
forecasts are really appreciated. I wish you and your family a very
happy Christmas and New Year. I hope you get a chance to use your sledge.

--
Howard Neil