Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0550, 10 Jan 06.

The models show a mobile setup for the weekend with a deep Icelandic low and
high pressure to the east. Troughs are likely to cross the UK and all areas
will see rain at some stage, heaviest in the west. The rain will be
accompanied by strong winds at times and temperatures will be on the mild
side of average in the main. Beyond the weekend there are no signs of a
change, with the ECM and GFS ensembles bullish about maintaining a mobile
flow over the UK. Indeed, the operational GFS decays the block to the east,
allowing the westerlies to blast all the way into Russia.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
The UK lies between a low to the west and a high to the east, with SW'lies
for all. The low moves NE'wards at T+144, allowing a trough to cross the UK.
Ahead of the trough winds are SW'lies, with westerlies following behind. By
T+168 SW'lies once again cover the UK as a new low deepens to the NW.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO shows strong to gale force SW'lies over the UK with a very deep low to
the NW. A trough crosses the UK during Sunday and by T+144 lighter SW'lies
affect the UK.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
GFS shows southerlies and SSW'lies, this time with a low to the west. The
low fills to the north of Scotland at T+144 withw esterlies and SW'lies as a
result for the UK.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
A trough lies to the west, with strong SW'lies across the UK.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...090000_120.gif
The German run shows very similar setup to GEM, with a trough to the west
and SW'lies for the UK. The trough crosses the UK at T+144, bringing light
winds for all.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows WSW'lies and a trough to the east. Winds become
SW'lies and southerlies for England and Wales at T+144 as a low deepens over
Ireland. Elsewhere winds are SE'lies.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
The UK lies under southerlies with a trough to the west.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
The Korean run brings low pressure close to the NW of the UK; this leads to
SSW'lies for all.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0550, 10 Jan 06.

The models show a mobile setup for the weekend with a deep Icelandic low
and high pressure to the east. Troughs are likely to cross the UK and all
areas will see rain at some stage, heaviest in the west. The rain will be
accompanied by strong winds at times and temperatures will be on the mild
side of average in the main. Beyond the weekend there are no signs of a
change, with the ECM and GFS ensembles bullish about maintaining a mobile
flow over the UK. Indeed, the operational GFS decays the block to the
east, allowing the westerlies to blast all the way into Russia.



So thats it for another winter. Here's to another mild winter.

So thats it for another winter. Here's to another mild winter.

It would appear so for the next couple of weeks, then again we have had
quite a few cold spells during late February/early March in recent years.
_______________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

Gavin Staples wrote:

So thats it for another winter. Here's to another mild winter.



Lets hope so - I'm getting through the heating oil at an alarming rate!

--
Chris
http://www.ivy-house.net
Swaffham, Norfolk

Once that kind of extensive zonal/mobile pattern develops at this stage of
"winter", my thoughts turn towards "roll on spring". Winters of eg,
1974/1989/1990 come to mind as examples. Still the UKMO, did not forecast a
colder than average winter, just that there was a greater than evens chance
of there being one.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------
"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0550, 10 Jan 06.

The models show a mobile setup for the weekend with a deep Icelandic low
and high pressure to the east. Troughs are likely to cross the UK and all
areas will see rain at some stage, heaviest in the west. The rain will be
accompanied by strong winds at times and temperatures will be on the mild
side of average in the main. Beyond the weekend there are no signs of a
change, with the ECM and GFS ensembles bullish about maintaining a mobile
flow over the UK. Indeed, the operational GFS decays the block to the
east, allowing the westerlies to blast all the way into Russia.



So thats it for another winter. Here's to another mild winter.

"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0550, 10 Jan 06.

The models show a mobile setup for the weekend with a deep Icelandic low
and high pressure to the east. Troughs are likely to cross the UK and all
areas will see rain at some stage, heaviest in the west. The rain will be
accompanied by strong winds at times and temperatures will be on the mild
side of average in the main. Beyond the weekend there are no signs of a
change, with the ECM and GFS ensembles bullish about maintaining a mobile
flow over the UK. Indeed, the operational GFS decays the block to the
east, allowing the westerlies to blast all the way into Russia.



So thats it for another winter. Here's to another mild winter.

Once that kind of extensive zonal/mobile pattern develops at this stage of
"winter", my thoughts just turn towards "roll on spring". Winters of eg,
1974/1989/1990 come to mind as similar examples of such events after
promising early stages.

Still the UKMO, did not forecast a
colder than average winter, just that there was a greater than evens chance
of there being one.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

In article ,
Gavin Staples writes:
So thats it for another winter. Here's to another mild winter.

Sorry, Gavin, but this sort of post in early January really annoys me.
No-one can forecast confidently beyond about a week ahead. You can make
an informed guess for the second week that is more likely to be right
than wrong, but beyond that nobody knows. There are plenty of cold GFS
ensemble members for Moscow in the second week (at least, there were
when I looked this morning), and although at present none of them show
that cold air being advected our way it could easily happen. No, it's
not likely, but it's certainly possible
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

So thats it for another winter. Here's to another mild winter.

The current operational run seems more interesting with anticyclonic
southeasterlies the whole of next week and as far ahead as the 25th.

If this comes off I guess there's the chance of a sustained sunny
weather and hard frosts at night, even if now snow? I suppose there's
the chance of dull, non-descript weather too...

Nick

On Tue, 10 Jan 2006 19:10:38 +0000, John Hall
wrote:

In article ,
Gavin Staples writes:
So thats it for another winter. Here's to another mild winter.

Sorry, Gavin, but this sort of post in early January really annoys me.
No-one can forecast confidently beyond about a week ahead. You can make
an informed guess for the second week that is more likely to be right
than wrong, but beyond that nobody knows.

Fair enough. I was asked today by some colleagues at work about
whether we , in Dorset, might yet get some snow. I peered in to the
coffee cup, looked for inspiration out of the window, and simply said
'Remember about February 6th 1996? That gave us all two days extra
holiday and the place closed!' All those around showed great approval
of this- snow and some time off - so the mid morning break was better
than normal! At lunch two lady colleagues said they were 'freezing',
yet at the time it was close to 7.8C
So,really, we have a long way to go. By mid February I might juststart
to think we are through winter....
Robin

I
So thats it for another winter. Here's to another mild winter.


The current operational run seems more interesting with anticyclonic
southeasterlies the whole of next week and as far ahead as the 25th.

If this comes off I guess there's the chance of a sustained sunny
weather and hard frosts at night, even if now snow? I suppose there's
the chance of dull, non-descript weather too...

Nick


--
Graham