Some of us on here (and I include myself) and certainly on TWO avidly watch
the models for trends of cold weather. I have come to the conclusion that we
have been largely deluding ourselves since November with the illusive cold
spell always seemingly two weeks away. "All the ingredients are there". But
aren't they always in reality? Well very soon two weeks away will be too
late. It is clear that last week and current have come very close to
something special. No doubt the conditions over most of NW Europe were
those which the Met Office thought might come close to the UK in their
colder than average forecast for Europe.
It will be interesting to see if Will's boundless optimism will continue
tomorrow. I hope so.

Dave

"Dave.C" wrote in message
...
Some of us on here (and I include myself) and certainly on TWO avidly
watch
the models for trends of cold weather. I have come to the conclusion that
we
have been largely deluding ourselves since November with the illusive cold
spell always seemingly two weeks away. "All the ingredients are there".
But
aren't they always in reality? Well very soon two weeks away will be too
late. It is clear that last week and current have come very close to
something special. No doubt the conditions over most of NW Europe were
those which the Met Office thought might come close to the UK in their
colder than average forecast for Europe.
It will be interesting to see if Will's boundless optimism will continue
tomorrow. I hope so.

Dave



Maybe we shouldnt have had that snow spell in nov?
that has always been a bad sign for me atleast

"Dave.C" wrote in message
...
Some of us on here (and I include myself) and certainly on TWO avidly watch
the models for trends of cold weather. I have come to the conclusion that we
have been largely deluding ourselves since November with the illusive cold
spell always seemingly two weeks away. "All the ingredients are there". But
aren't they always in reality? Well very soon two weeks away will be too
late. It is clear that last week and current have come very close to
something special. No doubt the conditions over most of NW Europe were
those which the Met Office thought might come close to the UK in their
colder than average forecast for Europe.
It will be interesting to see if Will's boundless optimism will continue
tomorrow. I hope so.


Dave, I'm looking forward to a bit of snow up here on Dartmoor on Friday and
Saturday associated with the cold pool, poss a few flakes too for you in the SE
but beyond that, to be honest I can't see that much snow (not on low ground
anyway). But that's only after a very brief look, I should be doing my usual
forecast tomorrow after looking at things a little more closely.

Perhaps we will be all kissing our sisters goodnight next week! LOL.

(Actually I don't have a sister, which might be a good thing :-) )

Seriously what's really really worrying me is that if this dry weather continues
then you in the SE will be facing one hell of a summer as regards water supply
:-(

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In article ,
Will Hand writes:
Seriously what's really really worrying me is that if this dry weather
continues then you in the SE will be facing one hell of a summer as
regards water supply
:-(

I saw an exceptionally stupid variant on "at least it will be mild"
today. I think it was in the Met Office 6am Web forecast for the SE. It
ended with the words: "At least it will be dry." "Unfortunately it will
be dry" might have been nearer the mark.
--
John Hall "Never play cards with a man called Doc.
Never eat at a place called Mom's.
Never sleep with a woman whose troubles
are worse than your own." Nelson Algren

Dave.C wrote:
Some of us on here (and I include myself) and certainly on TWO avidly watch
the models for trends of cold weather. I have come to the conclusion that we
have been largely deluding ourselves since November with the illusive cold
spell always seemingly two weeks away. "All the ingredients are there". But
aren't they always in reality? Well very soon two weeks away will be too
late. It is clear that last week and current have come very close to
something special. No doubt the conditions over most of NW Europe were
those which the Met Office thought might come close to the UK in their
colder than average forecast for Europe.
It will be interesting to see if Will's boundless optimism will continue
tomorrow. I hope so.

Dave



I would say the Met Office forecast has been pretty close, basically
going for cold/dry weather the further south and east you are in the UK.
I think what has had an effect on us all is the pre Christmas media hype
about the worst winter for 10 years etc, although we all joked about it,
it sat there in the backs of our minds and gave us some 'dream' that was
never realy there.

Oh well, there's always next year.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

Seriously what's really really worrying me is that if this dry weather
continues then you in the SE will be facing one hell of a summer as regards
water supply
:-(

Will.

Absolutely. I've just installed a second water butt and will be preserving
as much as possible.

Dave

Any idea whether Iberia has had average or average rainfall this winter so
far ? The exceptional drought conditions in Portugal & much of Spain during
2005 must still be fresh in many of our minds.

Richard.


"Dave.C" wrote in message
news
Seriously what's really really worrying me is that if this dry weather
continues then you in the SE will be facing one hell of a summer as
regards
water supply
:-(

Will.

Absolutely. I've just installed a second water butt and will be preserving
as much as possible.

Dave

Dave.
Last week I stuck my head above the parapet and stated that the models
further out than 48 hours were a waste of time.
I know it didn't go down that well at the time as there were a number of
replies more or less saying leave it to the experts to make the forecasts.
My statement was purely based on the fact that we eagerly troll through
these computer models on a daily basis looking for the onset of cold
weather, but in reality what are the actual results.
I hear you say, about the always two weeks away.
Well there it is. Delusion is a very accurate description of what we
experience.
I blame nobody for trying to forecast the probable outcome, and full marks
to them if they correctly predict the final outcome, but we have been let
down by the models so many times we really need to shorten the timescales of
belief.
I have critisized the MO many times thinking they were just mild rampers but
I would like to retract that critisizm and say that the only thing that may
be over hyped now is the severe weather warnings that are issued.
I do believe, looking at the last four winters that the cold does seem to be
re-appearing with a little more regularity than during the winters of the
late 90s and early 2000s. So maybe the future looks more promising.

Regards. Len.


"Dave.C" wrote in message
...
Some of us on here (and I include myself) and certainly on TWO avidly
watch
the models for trends of cold weather. I have come to the conclusion that
we
have been largely deluding ourselves since November with the illusive cold
spell always seemingly two weeks away. "All the ingredients are there".
But
aren't they always in reality? Well very soon two weeks away will be too
late. It is clear that last week and current have come very close to
something special. No doubt the conditions over most of NW Europe were
those which the Met Office thought might come close to the UK in their
colder than average forecast for Europe.
It will be interesting to see if Will's boundless optimism will continue
tomorrow. I hope so.

Dave

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Dave.C" wrote in message
...
Some of us on here (and I include myself) and certainly on TWO avidly
watch
the models for trends of cold weather. I have come to the conclusion that
we
have been largely deluding ourselves since November with the illusive
cold
spell always seemingly two weeks away. "All the ingredients are there".
But
aren't they always in reality? Well very soon two weeks away will be too
late. It is clear that last week and current have come very close to
something special. No doubt the conditions over most of NW Europe were
those which the Met Office thought might come close to the UK in their
colder than average forecast for Europe.
It will be interesting to see if Will's boundless optimism will continue
tomorrow. I hope so.


Dave, I'm looking forward to a bit of snow up here on Dartmoor on Friday
and
Saturday associated with the cold pool, poss a few flakes too for you in
the SE
but beyond that, to be honest I can't see that much snow (not on low
ground
anyway). But that's only after a very brief look, I should be doing my
usual
forecast tomorrow after looking at things a little more closely.

Perhaps we will be all kissing our sisters goodnight next week! LOL.

(Actually I don't have a sister, which might be a good thing :-) )

Seriously what's really really worrying me is that if this dry weather
continues
then you in the SE will be facing one hell of a summer as regards water
supply
:-(

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------



What worries me more is the fact that mother nature tends be good at
balancing the books! Summer 2006 could well be forgetable!

Regards

SB

In message , GKN
writes
Dave.
Last week I stuck my head above the parapet and stated that the models
further out than 48 hours were a waste of time.
I know it didn't go down that well at the time as there were a number of
replies more or less saying leave it to the experts to make the forecasts.
My statement was purely based on the fact that we eagerly troll through
these computer models on a daily basis looking for the onset of cold
weather, but in reality what are the actual results.
I hear you say, about the always two weeks away.
Well there it is. Delusion is a very accurate description of what we
experience.
I blame nobody for trying to forecast the probable outcome, and full marks
to them if they correctly predict the final outcome, but we have been let
down by the models so many times we really need to shorten the timescales of
belief.
I have critisized the MO many times thinking they were just mild rampers but
I would like to retract that critisizm and say that the only thing that may
be over hyped now is the severe weather warnings that are issued.
I do believe, looking at the last four winters that the cold does seem to be
re-appearing with a little more regularity than during the winters of the
late 90s and early 2000s. So maybe the future looks more promising.

Regards. Len.

I agree Len. The models do seem biased, overestimating the strength &
growth of the continental highs, and under estimating the strength of
Atlantic systems to keep the highs to the east. Hence, the cold is
always 10 days away but never happens.
I too got shot down when criticising excitement shown over the T+240 GFS
for this Saturday, 28th.
Anyway, I've been collecting the GFS forecasts for Jan 28 as the days
have rolled by, I may put them all up on the web sometime.
--
steve

Weather at Scotton, Knaresborough, North Yorkshire
http://www.knaresboroughweather.co.uk