For those that set recorders etc., today's CF presentation (which should
be interesting given the models 'doubts and uncertainties'), is moved to
BBC2, the programme running 1130-1230.

Martin.


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http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/metindex.htm

Martin Rowley wrote:

For those that set recorders etc., today's CF presentation (which should
be interesting given the models 'doubts and uncertainties'), is moved to
BBC2, the programme running 1130-1230.

Picks up ears OOH! 'doubts and uncertainties' /picks up ears

Is that official? Too early for hurricanes and we seem to be in a
seismically quiet cycle. That leaves tornados.

Opens http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/OOH! oo-OO-OO-ooh!/opens
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

Anyone got a link for avalanche warnings? I just caught a clip of
something on the news a moment ago. Some cross country skier just opted
out of getting a medal or something.

I'd gathered that if a contestant in a skiing race was beset by slings
and arrows of outrageous fortune, the event was marked as unfair. Isn't
that so? Or was the comment by the newsreader a little previous?

I can't imagine a less even playing field than having the ground
shifted out from underneath you.

1. Uncertain weatherman = Atlantic Chart use greater than or equivalent
to porridge.

2. Confidant weatherman = Atlantic weather chart is non existant or
much less than porridge.

Does the team think?

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
For those that set recorders etc., today's CF presentation (which should
be interesting given the models 'doubts and uncertainties'), is moved to
BBC2, the programme running 1130-1230.

Hi Martin,

Thanks for the reminder - Great uncertainty for Friday.
Occlusion could be anywhere from Channel to Scotland!
Then just tuned into the 06Z GFS which adds even more uncertainty!
Spring may only last 24H in the South...
Phil

Is this what drives this unscientific .sci group? A wish to see
professional forecasters squirm in public with an uncertain situation?
Why? Are you all just cruel and like to pick holes in everyone else but
yourself, or have you some other reason for watching a forecast that is
directed at farmers and growers?

And what is this uncertainty? Just how many minutes of wet snow Will
Hand is going to get on Dartmoor before it all turns to rain?

I dont really think that is going to disturb many forecasters. We just
say, rain will be preceded by snow over high ground later on Friday.

wrote in message
oups.com...
Is this what drives this unscientific .sci group? A wish to see
professional forecasters squirm in public with an uncertain situation?
Why? Are you all just cruel and like to pick holes in everyone else but
yourself, or have you some other reason for watching a forecast that is
directed at farmers and growers?


Eh??

This weeks forecast was especially interesting because the situation
is interesting. There's uncertainty. It was interesting to see what the
CF forecast would make of that uncertainty. As it turned out they
handled it pretty well and basically held up their hands and said they
didn't really know what was going to happen on Friday.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.

Why is uncertainty interesting? I dont understand.

Who are the 'they' that 'handled it pretty well'?

What do you consider good and bad ways of handling uncertainty?

wrote in message
oups.com...
Why is uncertainty interesting? I dont understand.

Because it is. Because the situation might go one way or another
That's 'interesting'.

Who are the 'they' that 'handled it pretty well'?

Um..... The people who produced the CF forecast. Who do you think?

What do you consider good and bad ways of handling uncertainty?

Good is being honest about it. Saying pretty much that this is an
uncertain situation and there could be a range of potential sceanarios.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.

But who appointed you to this judgemental position? What qualifications
do you have in tv presentation, especially as you only seem to be
judging parameters that you decide are interesting because of their
uncertainty. The whole point of forecast verification is to compare the
forecast with what actually happened. You cant do that until after the
event.

In my opinion, being honest and saying 'we do not know what is going to
happen' is the exact opposite of forecasting, and goes against
everything that I was taught in my formative years. And yet this
'forecast' gets full marks from yourself. The world had indeed gone mad.

In message .com,
writes

In my opinion, being honest and saying 'we do not know what is going to
happen' is the exact opposite of forecasting, and goes against
everything that I was taught in my formative years. And yet this
'forecast' gets full marks from yourself. The world had indeed gone mad.


I have to disagree with you there. A forecast has little or no value if
the actual weather falls outside of the limits that were set by the
forecast. Indeed, depending on what the forecast is to be used for, it
might be better having no forecast at all than having one that fails to
predict the conditions that actually occur. If the range of
possibilities is so wide that it is a genuine "don't know" scenario then
issued forecasts should reflect that in some way IMHO.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England