Well the beautiful Helen Willets didn't just hint at this, she damn well
near nailed it.

By the way Isobel Lang never gets a mention-she's delightful....ah yes back
to the snow prediction NAH....

Never mind I don't resent them their salaries for such over hyped tripe. But
oh boy would I just love be wrong.

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...
Well the beautiful Helen Willets didn't just hint at this, she damn well
near nailed it.

By the way Isobel Lang never gets a mention-she's delightful....ah yes
back to the snow prediction NAH....

Never mind I don't resent them their salaries for such over hyped tripe.
But oh boy would I just love be wrong.

Looking at the UKMO Progs this morning Lawrence, it all seems to warm to me
for snow.
Of interest, GFS is predicting 31mm here by Sunday, which seems quite
possible, but these days the Lows just dont seems to bring the same amount
of water that they once did! We'll see.

Phil

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...
Well the beautiful Helen Willets didn't just hint at this, she damn well
near nailed it.

By the way Isobel Lang never gets a mention-she's delightful....ah yes
back to the snow prediction NAH....

Never mind I don't resent them their salaries for such over hyped tripe.
But oh boy would I just love be wrong.

Looking at the UKMO Progs this morning Lawrence, it all seems to warm to me
for snow.
Of interest, GFS is predicting 31mm here by Sunday, which seems quite
possible, but these days the Lows just dont seems to bring the same amount
of water that they once did! We'll see.


Yes it looks far too warm for snow in the south. I did say last week that the
dividing line between cold and warm air was most likely to be over northern
England. Still looks that way to me. You'll get some welcome rain Phil, but
30mm, I doubt it.

Will.
--

" You cannot count your life a success unless you can find one person who says
that they are happier because you were born "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Will Hand wrote:
"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...
Well the beautiful Helen Willets didn't just hint at this, she damn
well near nailed it.

By the way Isobel Lang never gets a mention-she's delightful....ah
yes back to the snow prediction NAH....

Never mind I don't resent them their salaries for such over hyped
tripe. But oh boy would I just love be wrong.

Looking at the UKMO Progs this morning Lawrence, it all seems to
warm to me for snow.
Of interest, GFS is predicting 31mm here by Sunday, which seems quite
possible, but these days the Lows just dont seems to bring the same
amount of water that they once did! We'll see.


Yes it looks far too warm for snow in the south. I did say last week
that the dividing line between cold and warm air was most likely to
be over northern England. Still looks that way to me. You'll get some
welcome rain Phil, but 30mm, I doubt it.

Will.

"The models are finely balanced - yesterday we were in for a lot of snow -
today the models push the milder air in more strongly and the snow is for
Scotland instead - and that at the moment is the model concensus."

Thats the official line as of this afternoon. you seem to agree Will?
--
Rob Overfield
Hull
http://talkingtoomuchagain.blogspot.com

"Rob" wrote in message
...


"The models are finely balanced - yesterday we were in for a lot of snow -
today the models push the milder air in more strongly and the snow is for
Scotland instead - and that at the moment is the model concensus."

Thats the official line as of this afternoon. you seem to agree Will?

But this could easily change tomorrow and then back again by Friday!

'Crazy Horse' if you are there then this is what I find 'interesting'
about 'uncertainty'. The different models predicting various things
or them all swinging one way or another as the event approaches.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.

Col wrote:
"Rob" wrote in message
...


"The models are finely balanced - yesterday we were in for a lot of snow -
today the models push the milder air in more strongly and the snow is for
Scotland instead - and that at the moment is the model concensus."

Thats the official line as of this afternoon. you seem to agree Will?

But this could easily change tomorrow and then back again by Friday!

'Crazy Horse' if you are there then this is what I find 'interesting'
about 'uncertainty'. The different models predicting various things
or them all swinging one way or another as the event approaches.


You really are tempting me to assume the pedant mode.

My resistance is crumbling.

Is this really uncertainty, or just a lack of model accuracy? Surely
the fact that they move towards a concensus as the event approaches is
just a sign that they have at last got a mathematical grasp of the
dynamics, which will swamp any minor inaccuracies generated by the
deficiencies created in attempting to model the atmosphere in the first
place.

The problem that I have with all this is that some people seem to take
a forecast frame from whatever model they choose, at some future time
(lets say T+144) and make assumptions given that that particular
forecast has a high percentage chance of being right. They then seem to
go off on some kind of 'weather trip' based on this product, which
seems to be a little premature.