ADVANCE WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting North East England,
South East England and East Anglia AND Lincolnshire.
Issued by the Met Office at 10:17 on Saturday, 22 January 2005.
THE MET OFFICE IS FORECASTING A STRONG, COLD NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
AIRSTREAM TO EXTEND ACROSS SE ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FREQUENT SLEET AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE EAST COAST WHERE
2-5CM OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN PLACES, FEEDING INLAND INTO PARTS OF YORKSHIRE
AND LINCOLNSHIRE DURING SUNDAY EVENING. THE RISK EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
PARTS OF EAST ANGLIA AND SE ENGLAND, CHIEFLY AREAS EAST OF LONDON, SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY - IN TIME FOR MONDAY MORNING'S RUSH HOUR. RISK PERHAPS
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR ESSEX AND KENT.
A COVERING OF 2-5CM OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN PLACES SUCH AS THE NORTH DOWNS AND
HIGH WEALD, AND LOCALLY 5-10CM OVER HIGHER GROUND IN NORTH YORKSHIRE MOORS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL DISRUPTION. INDEED WIDESPREAD ICE MAY BE AN
ADDITIONAL HAZARD.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF DISRUPTION IS 50% IN EAST ANGLIA AND LINCOLNSHIRE, WITH
40% RISK IN NORTHEAST ENGLAND AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ENGLAND.
For enquiries regarding this warning - please contact your regional Met
Office.
Transmitted by the Met Office at 10:17 on Saturday 22 January

AT THE MOMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AMOUNT OF
LYING SNOW AND DISRUPTION RISK INLAND. HOWEVER, TIMING CONFIDENCE OF THE
ONSET TO WINTRY WEATHER IS MODERATE TO HIGH, COMING DURING MONDAY MORNING'S
RUSH HOUR AND AS SUCH WARRANTS THIS EARLY WARNING.

It's always tieing in the 2-5 cm of snow with the "severe"wording that comes
difficult to us "oldies"

Dave

On Sat, 22 Jan 2005 10:33:54 GMT, "Dave.C"
wrote:


It's always tieing in the 2-5 cm of snow with the "severe"wording that comes
difficult to us "oldies"

On the one hand I try and look at it from the point of view of those
who have never experienced such 'large' (ahem!) aounts of snow and how
they might find it difficult to drive/cycle/walk in, on the other hand
I see it as excessive and unnecessary exagerration of what is, let's
be honest, a mere light fall of snow. It just seems to be unnecessary
'nannying', no doubt at least partly driven by forecasters covering
their backs due to any potential backlash when someone injures
themselves because of it.

"mjones" wrote in message
...
snip
on the other hand
I see it as excessive and unnecessary exagerration of what is, let's
be honest, a mere light fall of snow. It just seems to be unnecessary
'nannying', no doubt at least partly driven by forecasters covering
their backs due to any potential backlash when someone injures
themselves because of it.

We've had this debate many times before, but for the benefit of
newcomers ....

Forget "nannying"; forget "forecasters covering their backs". The
warnings issued (Earlies / Advance / 'Flash') etc., are agreed between
the 'customers' and the 'providers'. See:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/nswws/

I entirely agree that nowadays we issue warnings when in the past
non-such would have occurred. I've moaned myself about this, but the
fact is that only a small amount of snow over ice can cause absolute
chaos! This isn't the 'fault' of the forecasters, the planners, the
'whoever'; it is a fact of modern life.

Martin.

"Dave.C" wrote in message
k...
snipped
It's always tieing in the 2-5 cm of snow with the "severe"wording that
comes
difficult to us "oldies"

Dave


The word 'severe' is certainly not what it used to be.
I am only 37 and I have photo's of my parents bungalow with snow well over
half way up the windows, in fact in some areas it was drifted up to the
soffits.
Those where the days goes outside and nip's to the shop around the corner
in his car !
--

Jim B (Smogthemog)
Kiteaholic :0)

Dave.C wrote:
ADVANCE WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting North East England,
South East England and East Anglia AND Lincolnshire.
Issued by the Met Office at 10:17 on Saturday, 22 January 2005.
THE MET OFFICE IS FORECASTING A STRONG, COLD NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
AIRSTREAM TO EXTEND ACROSS SE ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FREQUENT SLEET AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE EAST COAST WHERE
2-5CM OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN PLACES, FEEDING INLAND INTO PARTS OF YORKSHIRE
AND LINCOLNSHIRE DURING SUNDAY EVENING. THE RISK EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
PARTS OF EAST ANGLIA AND SE ENGLAND, CHIEFLY AREAS EAST OF LONDON, SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY - IN TIME FOR MONDAY MORNING'S RUSH HOUR. RISK PERHAPS
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR ESSEX AND KENT.
A COVERING OF 2-5CM OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN PLACES SUCH AS THE NORTH DOWNS AND
HIGH WEALD, AND LOCALLY 5-10CM OVER HIGHER GROUND IN NORTH YORKSHIRE MOORS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL DISRUPTION. INDEED WIDESPREAD ICE MAY BE AN
ADDITIONAL HAZARD.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF DISRUPTION IS 50% IN EAST ANGLIA AND LINCOLNSHIRE, WITH
40% RISK IN NORTHEAST ENGLAND AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ENGLAND.
For enquiries regarding this warning - please contact your regional Met
Office.
Transmitted by the Met Office at 10:17 on Saturday 22 January

AT THE MOMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AMOUNT OF
LYING SNOW AND DISRUPTION RISK INLAND. HOWEVER, TIMING CONFIDENCE OF THE
ONSET TO WINTRY WEATHER IS MODERATE TO HIGH, COMING DURING MONDAY MORNING'S
RUSH HOUR AND AS SUCH WARRANTS THIS EARLY WARNING.

It's always tieing in the 2-5 cm of snow with the "severe"wording that comes
difficult to us "oldies"

Dave



I would just like to see the grammar corrected in the first sentence. If
it really was an advanced warning I would read it, but I reckon it is
the same fear inducing Met Office drivel. BTW what the hell is a rush
hour? Also come to think of it what is this Monday morning thing?

Graham

With 10 to 15 Inches of Snow expected in New York this weekend, with
gusts to 50mph

Wow, that sure puts things in perspective, compared with talk about
light dustings in the East :-)

On Sat, 22 Jan 2005 12:05:47 +0000, Graham Jones
wrote:

Also come to think of it what is this Monday morning thing?

It's the time of the week that people don't look forward to before
they retire. I can just remember it.

--
Alan White
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow.
Overlooking Loch Goil and Loch Long in Argyll, Scotland.
Web cam at http://www.ufcnet.net/~alanlesley1/kabcam.htm

"Graham Jones" wrote:
Big Snip
BTW what the hell is a rush
hour?

A term that was current and much used when I was a kid in the 1950s.
Then, it applied to queues of people waiting for buses and trams at 08.30
and 17.00 hrs. Now it's just lines of standing traffic (well it is down
here, anyway) and lasts virtually the whole day.

It put me in mind of another example of the generation gap that opens up
on one, initially so slow as to be unnoticed, but ends up a yawning chasm:

In the mid-1990s I had to audit a number of very distinguished
institutions in London. One of them was the Royal Society in Carlton
House Terrace - and a very fine establishment it is too. I was in the
dining area in the basement, talking to the Facilities Manager, but being
overheard by a young catering assistant of maybe 17 years old who was
lurking close by, obviously earwigging. In the course of our general
conversation, I asked the Manager if they had always been in the building?
"Oh, no" he said. "Up to 1939 this was the old German Embassy, until they
had to all get out quickly that is. We came here afterwards."

I became lost for a moment in thoughts of what it must have been like in
that building just before the war. If only those walls could talk - all
those machinations and earth-shattering events, the plotting and intrigue
............. I was rudely interrupted by the young assistant: "So what
happened in 1939 that caused them to move then?"

The Manager and I looked at each other in astonishment, but the sad thing
was she wasn't kidding.

- Tom.

In article ,
Smog writes:
I am only 37 and I have photo's of my parents bungalow with snow well over
half way up the windows, in fact in some areas it was drifted up to the
soffits.

What are soffits, please?
--
John Hall
"If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts;
but if he will be content to begin with doubts,
he shall end in certainties." Francis Bacon (1561-1626)

On Sat, 22 Jan 2005 10:33:54 GMT, "Dave.C"
wrote:

ADVANCE WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

AT THE MOMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AMOUNT OF
LYING SNOW AND DISRUPTION RISK INLAND. HOWEVER, TIMING CONFIDENCE OF THE
ONSET TO WINTRY WEATHER IS MODERATE TO HIGH, COMING DURING MONDAY MORNING'S
RUSH HOUR AND AS SUCH WARRANTS THIS EARLY WARNING.

It's always tieing in the 2-5 cm of snow with the "severe"wording that comes
difficult to us "oldies"

I, too, have experienced "real" winter conditions (including 1963) but
I have to say, the potential for a couple of inches of lying snow to
cause disruption and danger seems to be greater these days. The
greatly increased volume of traffic on the roads is part of the
problem. Witness what happened in January 2003 on the M11, when many
people took 8 to 10 hours to get home. OK, some roads weren't gritted
but the fact remains, snow is always potentially serious, especially
for drivers unprepared for the consequences (there are always some).
Therefore, a "risk of disruption" warning is appropriate.

The "disruption" problem isn't new or confined to the London area, by
the way. I well remember one morning in the early 1980s, when the
roads hadn't been gritted on the Isle of Wight. One inch of snow,
compressed by car tyres after a hard overnight frost, turned to sheet
ice and total chaos was caused on every sharp incline on the Island. I
was two hours late for work in a 6 mile journey that should have taken
10 minutes.

So yes, I think such warnings are necessary "just in case" although
the way they are broadcast on TV is often way over the top - making a
small risk (e.g. of disruption on untreated roads) look like a cast
iron certainty of widespread disruption, for casual viewers. Crying
wolf will tend to get the next serious warning of a real emergency
ignored.

--
Dave