Everyone -

I see Estofex have a sev 1 for the UK, this is borne out by the latest
GFS runs - and the skies here were full of accas and acflo this morning,
first time this year!

A bit of CAPE on the Herstmonceaux chart this morning too I see - could
get interesting with the heating of the day.

Les
--
Les Crossan,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear
54.95N 1.5W
Home of the Wallsend StormCam and the Backup USW FAQ -
www.uksevereweather.org.uk

Definitely Les, CAPE could be a little higher, but the LI is not too bad for
the West Midlands, -2. Could get a small thunderstorm.

Mike

www.dudleyweather.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk

"Les Crossan" Everyone -

I see Estofex have a sev 1 for the UK, this is borne out by the latest GFS
runs - and the skies here were full of accas and acflo this morning, first
time this year!

A bit of CAPE on the Herstmonceaux chart this morning too I see - could
get interesting with the heating of the day.

Les
A few patches of Ac cas visible here in SE London this morning,and a high Ci
haze, but strong sunshine pouring on to concrete at EGCL has already got it
to 22C at 11Z.The 06Z Larkhill sounding suggests in excess of 26C is
required to release a good deal of CAPE, but are we likely to see a sea
breeze here to initiate convection and will there be enough support
aloft?Probably not.But could be interesting points NW of London,

--
regards,
David

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In article
"waghorn" writes:


"Les Crossan" Everyone -

I see Estofex have a sev 1 for the UK, this is borne out by the latest GFS
runs - and the skies here were full of accas and acflo this morning, first
time this year!

A bit of CAPE on the Herstmonceaux chart this morning too I see - could
get interesting with the heating of the day.

Les
A few patches of Ac cas visible here in SE London this morning,and a high Ci
haze, but strong sunshine pouring on to concrete at EGCL has already got it
to 22C at 11Z.The 06Z Larkhill sounding suggests in excess of 26C is
required to release a good deal of CAPE, but are we likely to see a sea
breeze here to initiate convection and will there be enough support
aloft?Probably not.But could be interesting points NW of London,

At 1200 gmt, temp has reached 25.9(c) just west of Canterbury
(Boughton-under-Blean).

In message , waghorn
writes

"Les Crossan" Everyone -

I see Estofex have a sev 1 for the UK, this is borne out by the latest GFS
runs - and the skies here were full of accas and acflo this morning, first
time this year!

A bit of CAPE on the Herstmonceaux chart this morning too I see - could
get interesting with the heating of the day.

Les
A few patches of Ac cas visible here in SE London this morning,and a high Ci
haze, but strong sunshine pouring on to concrete at EGCL has already got it
to 22C at 11Z.The 06Z Larkhill sounding suggests in excess of 26C is
required to release a good deal of CAPE, but are we likely to see a sea
breeze here to initiate convection and will there be enough support
aloft?Probably not.But could be interesting points NW of London,


Temperature in Chalfont St Giles at 1215z is 26.7C. A few high based
small Cu have developed in the past hour but there's no vigour in the
development so far.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

On Thu, 04 May 2006 11:48:06 GMT, "Michael Di Bernardo"
wrote:

Definitely Les, CAPE could be a little higher, but the LI is not too bad for
the West Midlands, -2. Could get a small thunderstorm.

Already had a small thunderstorm this morning ;-)

06:30, S****horpe, N. Lincs

"Norman Lynagh"
Temperature in Chalfont St Giles at 1215z is 26.7C. A few high based small
Cu have developed in the past hour but there's no vigour in the
development so far.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)

Looks like the models have undercooked the temperature.Few turretty Cu
forming in London area in past 1/2hr, pileus observed.Looks like it will
struggle ATM though.Feeling hot and humid with a pronounced pollution haze
and an easterly breeze picking up,

--
regards,
David

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TORRO seem to think theres something cooking for parts of the country.

http://www.torro.org.uk/forecast/

Now 27C here in Dudley.

Mike

www.dudleyweather.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk

"Michael Di Bernardo" TORRO seem to think theres something cooking for
parts of the country.

http://www.torro.org.uk/forecast/

Now 27C here in Dudley.

Mike
ESTOFEX update -
http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/s...castupdate.xml
EGCL, London City Airport, only reached 24C today.Presumably the SEly breeze
off the Thames estuary,southern N Sea kept it down.Herstmonceux profile
looks rather dry with two large capping 'lids'.

--
regards,
David

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waghorn wrote:
"Michael Di Bernardo" TORRO seem to think theres something cooking for
parts of the country.
http://www.torro.org.uk/forecast/

Now 27C here in Dudley.


Dammit the Albemarle profile's gone the same way I don't hold out much
hope for here in NE England, it's too cold, if it all goes up i'll start
posting [wr]'s.

Superimposing lightning activity is a clever idea though...

--
Les Crossan,
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear
54.95N 1.5W
Home of the Wallsend StormCam and the Backup USW FAQ -
www.uksevereweather.org.uk