Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0450z, 16 July 06.
(NB I'm at the Kent Show today, hence this shorter analysis)

There are signs of a change today. The dominant high over the next few days
will move away, leaving the UK under a slack pressure gradient. Although it
will initially be warm or hot in many areas, temperatures will probably fall
by the weekend with an increasing chance of showers.

ECMWF: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif
High pressure lies to the NW, with easterlies across the UK. There's little
change at T+144, but by T+168 a ridge builds from the north, leading to
easterlies for the SE of England and ESE'lies elsewhere.

MetO: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
Unavailable at the time of issue.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
A col covers the UK with light winds for all. T+144 sees a weak ridge move
eastwards over Wales, with a col persisting over Scotland. This leads to
WNW'lies over England and Wales, SW'lies for Northern Ireland and light
winds for Scotland. By T+168 another col covers most areas with light winds
as a result.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
Unavailable today.

JMA: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows a col over Ireland and SW England with ENE'lies over
the rest of England and Wales. Scotland lies under SE'lies with a ridge to
the east.

NOGAPS: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS brings a mixture of SE'lies and ESE'lies over the UK with a ridge to
the east and a col over Ireland.

"Darren Prescott" none@no,dns wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Thursday. Issued
0450z, 16 July 06.
(NB I'm at the Kent Show today, hence this shorter analysis)

There are signs of a change today. The dominant high over the next few
days
will move away, leaving the UK under a slack pressure gradient. Although
it
will initially be warm or hot in many areas, temperatures will probably
fall
by the weekend with an increasing chance of showers.


Peter Gibbs is telling us in the countryfile slot that there possibly could
be record breaking temperatures Tues and/or Wednesday in the S. and that,
even later, with the expected thundery breakdown coming up from France it
will still be extremely uncomfortable and sultry week, especially in London.
His words uttered ..."even by UK July standards."