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Old July 17th 06, 06:03 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Record Temps Expected

From the MET Office :
Record breaking weather News....

Forecasters at the Met Office are predicting the highest July temperatures
ever recorded this week, with a 30% probability on Wednesday of breaking the
all-time UK temperature record.

The highest temperature ever recorded in the UK was 38.5 deg C at Faversham
in Kent on the 10 August 2003. This week, temperatures of 37 deg C are
expected, however it is possible that the all-time record could be broken as
one or two locations in the Home Counties of southeast England reach highs
of 39 deg C (102 deg F).

UK Record temperatures

Region July record All-time record

England 36.0 deg C Epsom 38.5 deg C Faversham 10/08/2003 22/7/1911

Wales 33.6 deg C Usk 3/7/1976 35.2 deg C Hawarden Bridge 2/8/1990

Scotland 32.8 deg C Dumfries 32.9 deg C Greycrook 9/8/2003 2/7/1908

Northern 30.8 deg C Belfast 30.8 deg C Knockarevan Ireland 12/7/1983
30/6/1976 and Belfast 12/71983

The predicted regional maximum temperatures this week a

England
Southeast: 37 deg C
Southwest: 36 deg C
Midlands: 36 deg C
Northwest: 35 deg C
Northeast: 33 deg C
East Anglia: 37 deg C
Wales: 34 deg C
Scotland: 31 deg C
Northern Ireland: 30 deg C

The reason for the heatwave is a prolonged period of very settled weather,
with cloudless skies and strong sunshine which has allowed temperatures to
rise. Over coming days even hotter air will move across from continental
Europe causing the temperature to rise even further.

Climate change
The question is often asked is whether global warming is a factor? Research
conducted at the Met Office, shows that there is a significant human
contribution to these heatwaves because of CO2 emissions over recent
decades. This is a sign of things to come, with the current temperatures
becoming a normal event by the middle of this century.

The outlook is for less hot weather to move across the country by the end of
the week, although temperatures are expected to remain above average for the
rest of the month.



Best Wishes

Richard




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Old July 17th 06, 06:22 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Record Temps Expected - UKMO quoting discredited extremes


Richard Griffith wrote:
From the MET Office :
Record breaking weather News....

UK Record temperatures


Region July record All-time record

England 36.0 deg C Epsom 38.5 deg C Faversham 10/08/2003 22/7/1911


Oh dear, what a shame UKMO still trot out discredited extremes ... !

The Faversham value was at least 2 degC too high in comparison with
neighbouring sites, and the Kew Gardens 38.1ฐC on the same date is
much the more plausible UK highest. For full details see the 2003
heatwave papers written by myself and Philip Eden in Weather, Aug to
Oct 2004. It'll be interesting to see what happens if we end up with a
maximum of say 38.3ฐC somewhere this summer - is it a record, or isn't
it?

The Epsom 36.0ฐC on 22 July 1911 has been discredited for many years,
in favour of the 35.9ฐC recorded at Cheltenham on 3 July 1976 which
should stand as the UK July record.

Details of the Epsom value:
On 22 July 36.0ฐC was reported from Epsom in Surrey. Details of the
type of thermometer screen in use are not known, but it seems probable
that it was a Glaisher stand, for even at Greenwich the observed
maximum in the Glaisher stand there was only 35.3ฐC (the Stevenson
screen reading was 33.2ฐC). Confirmation of maxima of 33-34ฐC rather
than 35ฐC or more is afforded by the (Stevenson screen) maximum at
Camden Square, normally one of the hottest of the London stations, of
33.7ฐC. No other maxima of 35ฐC or more were reported anywhere in the
country. It seems unlikely, therefore, that the air temperature in a
Stevenson screen anywhere in London that afternoon would have reached
or exceeded 35.0ฐC.

(Taken from my paper on the Aug 1990 heatwave in Intl J Clim, 1992)

Regards -- Stephen

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Old July 17th 06, 08:51 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Record Temps Expected


"Richard Griffith" wrote in message
...

Region July record All-time record
Scotland 32.8 deg C Dumfries 32.9 deg C Greycrook 9/8/2003 2/7/1908

The predicted regional maximum temperatures this week a
Scotland: 31 deg C


Met office website is actually forcasting 34C for Edinburgh on Wednesday -
which would smash the Scottish record.
Aberdeen reached a pretty exceptional 29บC today I noticed, I'm sure that's
verging on a record for them.
My own site record of +32.4บC set in 1995 would certainly be under threat if
Edinburgh clocked a 34C, but somehow I just can't see these values being
achieved, perhaps 31C or 32C.

I do expect a new July site maximum here in the next couple of days, If it
weren't for a fairly cloudy afternoon we could have got near it today. The
July record is +29.4บC, achieved twice in 1995. But 31บC was recorded
locally in 1983 (before my time).
What is also notable is the humidity levels in this part of the country
today, high dew points, higher still predicted tomorrow... uncomfortable
tonight.

บบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบ
Conditions in Wishaw @ 9:25pm, 17/7/06
Temperature 22.1ฐC. Dew point 17.5บC. 75.0%RH
Mean wind speed 2mph from the West South West.
Remarks; , 0.0mm precipitation in the past hour.
Cloud cover: Scattered Clouds
MSLP 1026.4mb, Steady.
Today's Max. 26.6ฐC at 2:09pm.
Today's min. 12.4ฐC at 6:29am.
Today's rain 0.0mm
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55บ47'14", W3บ55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
บบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบบ


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Old July 18th 06, 12:06 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Record Temps Expected


"Richard Griffith" wrote in message
...
From the MET Office :
Record breaking weather News....

Forecasters at the Met Office are predicting the highest July temperatures
ever recorded this week, with a 30% probability on Wednesday of breaking
the all-time UK temperature record.

The highest temperature ever recorded in the UK was 38.5 deg C at
Faversham in Kent on the 10 August 2003. This week, temperatures of 37 deg
C are expected, however it is possible that the all-time record could be
broken as one or two locations in the Home Counties of southeast England
reach highs of 39 deg C (102 deg F).

I think this demonstrates just how out of control the MO press office
now is. What an extraordinary hostage to fortune that last sentence may turn
out to be.

I'm also surprised they continue to quote the Faversham figure long after it
was debunked in some detail as Stephen notes elsewhere in this thread. The
scientific reasoning which demonstrated the wrongness of that reading was
accepted by everyone whose opinion I value. One wouldn't expect a public
recantation, but the common-sense approach would, I think, be the quiet
dropping of this particular figure from their public utterances.

Philip


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Old July 18th 06, 05:23 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Posts: 2,129
Default Record Temps Expected - UKMO quoting discredited extremes

In message .com,
Stephen Burt writes

The Epsom 36.0ฐC on 22 July 1911 has been discredited for many years,
in favour of the 35.9ฐC recorded at Cheltenham on 3 July 1976 which
should stand as the UK July record.


I'll let you know what I record tomorrow, though it will be very
unofficial of course.

I only recorded 34.2C on that day in 1990 when we set the previous UK
record here, but that was with a thermometer that I subsequently found
to be reading 1.5-2C low.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)


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Old July 18th 06, 10:28 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Rob Rob is offline
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Default Record Temps Expected

Philip Eden wrote:
"Richard Griffith" wrote in message
...
From the MET Office :
Record breaking weather News....

Forecasters at the Met Office are predicting the highest July
temperatures ever recorded this week, with a 30% probability on
Wednesday of breaking the all-time UK temperature record.

The highest temperature ever recorded in the UK was 38.5 deg C at
Faversham in Kent on the 10 August 2003. This week, temperatures of
37 deg C are expected, however it is possible that the all-time
record could be broken as one or two locations in the Home Counties
of southeast England reach highs of 39 deg C (102 deg F).

I think this demonstrates just how out of control the MO press office
now is. What an extraordinary hostage to fortune that last sentence
may turn out to be.

I'm also surprised they continue to quote the Faversham figure long
after it was debunked in some detail as Stephen notes elsewhere in
this thread. The scientific reasoning which demonstrated the
wrongness of that reading was accepted by everyone whose opinion I
value. One wouldn't expect a public recantation, but the common-sense
approach would, I think, be the quiet dropping of this particular
figure from their public utterances.


I doubt they will, Philip.

Does anyone remember which issue(s) of Weather this record was debated in?
Apparently after much discussion in the pages of the magazine "the
conclusion was that the record should stand".
--
Rob Overfield
Hull
http://talkingtoomuchagain.blogspot.com




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