Notice that the current GFS has fairly consistent northwesterlies and
northerlies beginning around the middle of next week, and persisting to
the end of the run. So could we see a temperature change as dramatic as
the one that occurred round the 10th of August? Interesting alternation
between southerlies and northerlies over the wider time frame also -
I'm guessing we're getting an alternation of slow moving upper troughs
and ridges.

Also increasingly anticyclonic in the second week... so maybe some
frosts? And hopefully some drying winds to remove the pervading damp of
the current air mass.

Nick

wrote in message
oups.com...
| Notice that the current GFS has fairly consistent northwesterlies and
| northerlies beginning around the middle of next week, and persisting to
| the end of the run. So could we see a temperature change as dramatic as
| the one that occurred round the 10th of August? Interesting alternation
| between southerlies and northerlies over the wider time frame also -
| I'm guessing we're getting an alternation of slow moving upper troughs
| and ridges.
|
| Also increasingly anticyclonic in the second week... so maybe some
| frosts? And hopefully some drying winds to remove the pervading damp of
| the current air mass.
|

This afternoon the +120H and +132H MO Forecast charts (shown for the same
time but issued 12 hours apart) appeared significantly different, so what
the GFS is worth 2 weeks ahead is anyone's guess (remember all the
excitement last winter when it kept predicting cold outbreaks but which then
failed to materialise?). When I looked at the 850 mb pressure and
temperature charts earlier in the week they showed lower temperatures, but
nothing that looked unusual for October, and if anything low pressure over
NW Europe and high over Scandinavia.

Also I note that the Met Office prediction for Oct/Nov/Dec (issued 26
September) is for "Warm more likely" / "Wet more likely" over the southern
North Sea and SE England. After the long dry spell and with water reserves
still low in SE England, let's hope they're right about the "Wet more
likely". Once we've had a top-up and I have enjoyed my autumn of still being
able to cycle in shorts and T shirt (plus a "hoody" if it rains, although it
was a very wet and heavy hoody by the time I got home yesterday evening!),
the ice and snow brigade can have their fun if the Met Office's latest
winter forecast proves correct.

The last really severe winters I can remember followed a tendency for Autumn
mildness, extending into early December when it could become exceptionally
mild and wet/stormy, followed by an abrupt change to easterlies late
December / early January. This could match both the Autumn and Winter
forecasts issued by the Met Office. You saw it here, first...
--
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