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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Notice that the current GFS has fairly consistent northwesterlies and
northerlies beginning around the middle of next week, and persisting to the end of the run. So could we see a temperature change as dramatic as the one that occurred round the 10th of August? Interesting alternation between southerlies and northerlies over the wider time frame also - I'm guessing we're getting an alternation of slow moving upper troughs and ridges. Also increasingly anticyclonic in the second week... so maybe some frosts? And hopefully some drying winds to remove the pervading damp of the current air mass. Nick |
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oups.com... | Notice that the current GFS has fairly consistent northwesterlies and | northerlies beginning around the middle of next week, and persisting to | the end of the run. So could we see a temperature change as dramatic as | the one that occurred round the 10th of August? Interesting alternation | between southerlies and northerlies over the wider time frame also - | I'm guessing we're getting an alternation of slow moving upper troughs | and ridges. | | Also increasingly anticyclonic in the second week... so maybe some | frosts? And hopefully some drying winds to remove the pervading damp of | the current air mass. | This afternoon the +120H and +132H MO Forecast charts (shown for the same time but issued 12 hours apart) appeared significantly different, so what the GFS is worth 2 weeks ahead is anyone's guess (remember all the excitement last winter when it kept predicting cold outbreaks but which then failed to materialise?). When I looked at the 850 mb pressure and temperature charts earlier in the week they showed lower temperatures, but nothing that looked unusual for October, and if anything low pressure over NW Europe and high over Scandinavia. Also I note that the Met Office prediction for Oct/Nov/Dec (issued 26 September) is for "Warm more likely" / "Wet more likely" over the southern North Sea and SE England. After the long dry spell and with water reserves still low in SE England, let's hope they're right about the "Wet more likely". Once we've had a top-up and I have enjoyed my autumn of still being able to cycle in shorts and T shirt (plus a "hoody" if it rains, although it was a very wet and heavy hoody by the time I got home yesterday evening!), the ice and snow brigade can have their fun if the Met Office's latest winter forecast proves correct. The last really severe winters I can remember followed a tendency for Autumn mildness, extending into early December when it could become exceptionally mild and wet/stormy, followed by an abrupt change to easterlies late December / early January. This could match both the Autumn and Winter forecasts issued by the Met Office. You saw it here, first... -- - Yokel - oo oo OOO OOO OO 0 OO ) ( I ) ( ) ( /\ ) ( Yokel @ Ashurst New Forest SU 336 107 17m a.s.l. "Yokel" now posts via a spam-trap account. Replace my alias with stevejudd to reply. |
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