On Feb 17, 12:22 am, "Richard Dixon" wrote:
On 16 Feb, 21:14, "Will Hand" wrote:

Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic

Please cite your references, Will !

Richard

going on the latest runs ,it all appears to have gone very very wrong
all so quick
chances now 5%

"vince" wrote in message
oups.com...
On Feb 17, 12:22 am, "Richard Dixon" wrote:

going on the latest runs ,it all appears to have gone very very wrong
all so quick
chances now 5%


Yes, the ensemble data from the last day or so indicates that a milder more
progressive pattern for the uk is the more likely outcome, with the deep
cold air remaining just to the E/NE of the UK. However, given its expected
proximity and the uncertainty there has been up until now, I would've
thought that the risk of more wintry weather in the far NE of the UK is
still somewhat higher than 5%, say 30-40%.

Also interesting to note that while the GFS/EC have waxed and waned the MetO
GM has remained fairly consistent with the more progressive solution for the
UK.

Whatever happens much of central/eastern parts of Europe are about to become
properly cold which, IIRC, is something we haven't really seen so far this
winter.

Jon.

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
Yes, the ensemble data from the last day or so indicates that a milder
more
progressive pattern for the uk is the more likely outcome, with the deep
cold air remaining just to the E/NE of the UK. However, given its expected
proximity and the uncertainty there has been up until now, I would've
thought that the risk of more wintry weather in the far NE of the UK is
still somewhat higher than 5%, say 30-40%.

Also interesting to note that while the GFS/EC have waxed and waned the
MetO
GM has remained fairly consistent with the more progressive solution for
the
UK.

Whatever happens much of central/eastern parts of Europe are about to
become
properly cold which, IIRC, is something we haven't really seen so far this
winter.

Jon.

Jon,
Someone in the MetO still thinks there is a possibility to include on the
Day 6 to 15:
"However it may turn colder later in the week, with widespread frost and
perhaps some snow in northern and northeastern Britain, though this remains
in the balance"
although which week this refers to as the date period starts next Friday the
23rd I'm not sure.

Now that the charts are within FAX range I feel it is less likely! Mind a
mighty battle over Denmark coming up next weekend
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif
Although I do agree generally that the models have difficulty handling the
change to colder conditions and then usually over speed the change back to
milder weather...

Phil

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...

Jon,
Someone in the MetO still thinks there is a possibility to include on the
Day 6 to 15:
"However it may turn colder later in the week, with widespread frost and
perhaps some snow in northern and northeastern Britain, though this
remains
in the balance"
although which week this refers to as the date period starts next Friday
the
23rd I'm not sure.

Phil, yes, the risk is still very much in the minds of those in Ops (at
least it was yesterday !) and given the uncertainty we've seen up till now
it's still worth highlighting in any medium range forecast.

Now that the charts are within FAX range I feel it is less likely! Mind a
mighty battle over Denmark coming up next weekend
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif
Although I do agree generally that the models have difficulty handling the
change to colder conditions and then usually over speed the change back to
milder weather...

Certainly has been interesting to watch how this one is evolving and how the
operational models and ensembles have handled it. A particularly tricky one
at times for medium range, not least as there's so much data these days to
plough through.

Jon.

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...

Jon,
Someone in the MetO still thinks there is a possibility to include on the
Day 6 to 15:
"However it may turn colder later in the week, with widespread frost and
perhaps some snow in northern and northeastern Britain, though this
remains
in the balance"
although which week this refers to as the date period starts next Friday
the
23rd I'm not sure.

Phil, yes, the risk is still very much in the minds of those in Ops (at
least it was yesterday !) and given the uncertainty we've seen up till now
it's still worth highlighting in any medium range forecast.

Now that the charts are within FAX range I feel it is less likely! Mind a
mighty battle over Denmark coming up next weekend
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif
Although I do agree generally that the models have difficulty handling the
change to colder conditions and then usually over speed the change back to
milder weather...

Certainly has been interesting to watch how this one is evolving and how the
operational models and ensembles have handled it. A particularly tricky one
at times for medium range, not least as there's so much data these days to
plough through.

Jon.



Hi Jon, although my confidence has plummeted to 25% given outputs over last 36
hours, the very cold air is not going to be far away, and on a global scale -
mighty close. The ingredients for a very cold spell are still there, I note that
on the latest runs the cold air is less keen to spread south towards the
Balkans, and keener to spread west to north of Britain. What this means I'm not
sure? A short let-up in the Atlantic vigour and that cold air will be in like a
flash. Mind you if it is delayed then a cold Spring is more definitely on the
cards, which will not be good for lovers of short skirts :-)

Will (Foggy Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl).
--

In article ,
Will Hand writes:
Hi Jon, although my confidence has plummeted to 25% given outputs over last 36
hours, the very cold air is not going to be far away, and on a global scale -
mighty close. The ingredients for a very cold spell are still there, I note that
on the latest runs the cold air is less keen to spread south towards the
Balkans, and keener to spread west to north of Britain. What this means I'm not
sure? A short let-up in the Atlantic vigour and that cold air will be in like a
flash. Mind you if it is delayed then a cold Spring is more definitely on the
cards, which will not be good for lovers of short skirts :-)

I see that the 12:00 GFS ensemble has three members which bring the very
cold air into London in around a week's time, albeit only briefly in
each case. (Where by "very cold" I mean 850mb temperatures of -9C or
less. Another member bottoms out at about -5C.) Surprisingly, the
picture for Wick isn't that different.
--
John Hall Weep not for little Leonie
Abducted by a French Marquis!
Though loss of honour was a wrench
Just think how it's improved her French. Harry Graham (1874-1936)

In article ,
John Hall writes:
In article ,
Will Hand writes:
Hi Jon, although my confidence has plummeted to 25% given outputs over last 36
hours, the very cold air is not going to be far away, and on a global scale -
mighty close. The ingredients for a very cold spell are still there, I
note that
on the latest runs the cold air is less keen to spread south towards the
Balkans, and keener to spread west to north of Britain. What this
means I'm not
sure? A short let-up in the Atlantic vigour and that cold air will be
in like a
flash. Mind you if it is delayed then a cold Spring is more definitely on the
cards, which will not be good for lovers of short skirts :-)

I see that the 12:00 GFS ensemble has three members which bring the very
cold air into London in around a week's time, albeit only briefly in
each case. (Where by "very cold" I mean 850mb temperatures of -9C or
less. Another member bottoms out at about -5C.) Surprisingly, the
picture for Wick isn't that different.

Belay that. I don't know what I was looking at, but the chart has gone
now!
--
John Hall Weep not for little Leonie
Abducted by a French Marquis!
Though loss of honour was a wrench
Just think how it's improved her French. Harry Graham (1874-1936)

On Sun, 18 Feb 2007 19:04:43 +0000, John Hall
wrote:

In article ,
John Hall writes:

I see that the 12:00 GFS ensemble has three members which bring the very
cold air into London in around a week's time, albeit only briefly in
each case. (Where by "very cold" I mean 850mb temperatures of -9C or
less. Another member bottoms out at about -5C.) Surprisingly, the
picture for Wick isn't that different.

Belay that. I don't know what I was looking at, but the chart has gone
now!

Yes indeed! I see that by Sunday, the GFS is siggesting a day max
temperature of 13 deg C over Southern and Central England although the
cold air (0 deg C max) isn't too far away... over Denmark and
Northern Germany.

Knowing how variable the GFS is at this range, all is not yet lost,
I'd say. But I won't be placing a bet on any more snow in the south
this Winter!

--
Dave

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 18 Feb 2007 19:04:43 +0000, John Hall
wrote:

In article ,
John Hall writes:

I see that the 12:00 GFS ensemble has three members which bring the very
cold air into London in around a week's time, albeit only briefly in
each case. (Where by "very cold" I mean 850mb temperatures of -9C or
less. Another member bottoms out at about -5C.) Surprisingly, the
picture for Wick isn't that different.

Belay that. I don't know what I was looking at, but the chart has gone
now!

Yes indeed! I see that by Sunday, the GFS is siggesting a day max
temperature of 13 deg C over Southern and Central England although the
cold air (0 deg C max) isn't too far away... over Denmark and
Northern Germany.

Knowing how variable the GFS is at this range, all is not yet lost,
I'd say. But I won't be placing a bet on any more snow in the south
this Winter!

--
Dave

----
I think it was Will who said of the last knife edge situation it's best to
revert to climatology. This taught me that in the last 20 years the cold
pool always slips S.E to Greece!
Dave, distinctly unsurprised.