Hmm, this doesn't appear to have made it first time around.

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0601z,
15/02/05.

IF today's model output is accurate there will be a significant cold spell
next week, doubtless with substantial snow in prone areas. However, before
anyone gets excited there are still a *lot* of things that need to be
resolved by the models. For example, the Azores High ridging northwards will
help set up a northerly flow, but the eventual cold spell is dependent on a
high east of Svalbard retrogressing and merging with the Azores High. As
usual, the GFS is the most bullish about this and amazingly the operational
run wasn't a cold outlier. Even the MetO model is getting colder run by run,
although it's nowhere near as snowy as the GFS, GEM, DWD etc. Bearing in
mind what happened a couple of weeks back, it's definately a case of as
ever, more runs are needed!

ECMWF: http://64.246.48.81/pics/Recm1201.gif
NW'lies cover the UK, with the Azores High to the SW and a ridge extending
south from Greenland. The highs merge and recentre over Iceland at T+144,
leading to northerlies for all. The winds become northerlies and NNE'lies at
T+168 as the high sinks slowly southwards and builds.

MetO: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html
The MetO run shows a high to the WSW with a ridge NE'wards towards
Scandinavia. Northerlies cover the UK as a result, strongest over East
Anglia and Kent. The high moves northwards at T+144, leading to NNE'lies for
much of the UK.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
The UK lies under moderate to strong northerlies, with low pressure over
Denmark and a ridge to the west. 850hPa temperatures vary from -10C widely
over much of Scotland, northern England and Wales to -7C over Norfolk. The
low deepens and sinks southwards over Germany at T+144, while high pressure
builds to the east of Svalbard. This leads to moderate northerlies for all,
followed by NE'lies at T+168 as the high builds and moves southwards towards
Scandinavia. The high continues to build on day 8, absorbing the remnants of
the Azores High. NNE'lies cover the UK, folloed by northerlies and NE'lies
on day 9 as a trough moves SW'wards over the British Isles. By then some
exceptionally cold air lies close to the UK, with the 510 line just off
Aberdeen and 850hPa temperatures of -14C affect eastern Scotland. Day 10
sees a weak ridge move over Ireland, maintaining much of the UK under
northerlies. I don't usually mention them, but beyond that the "fantasy
island" charts show a cold spell that wouldn't look out of place in the
1980s, with a procession of southerly tracking lows and substantial northern
blocking throughout. The T+384 chart shows strong easterlies blasting across
from Denmark to Newfoundland, although of course that's most unlikely to
happen!

GEM: http://www.meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Azores High lies to the NE of its namesake islands, bringing northerlies
and NW'lies to the UK. 850hPa temperatures vary from -7C over NE Scotland
to -1C over Northern Ireland. The high declines at T+144 as high pressure
builds strongly to the east of Svalbard. This leads to northerlies across
the UK, followed by NE'lies and NNE'lies on day 7 as the high builds
further.

GME/DWD:
http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...150000_120.gif
A NNW'ly flow covers the UK, with a high to the west. The high merges with
one to the NE of Scandinavia at T+144, with a new centre forming to the SE
of Iceland. This leads to NE'lies and northerlies for the UK, followed by
moderate NE'lies and ENE'lies at T+168. By then there's a high to the south
of Iceland, another high over Scandinavia and a further high over NW Russia,
with low pressure over the Alps.

JMA: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.html
The Japanese run shows the Azores High to the SW, leading to NW'lies for
all. 850hPa temperatures range from -6C over northern Scotland to +1C over
much of England and Wales. The high ridges strongly NE'wards at T+144,
bringing strong northerlies for the UK. The winds become NNE'lies on day 7
as the high to the west moves northwards, followed by NNE'lies and NE'lies
on day 8 with the high by now centred to the south of Iceland.

NOGAPS: http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp1201.gif
Strong northerlies cover the UK due to a low over southern Sweden and a high
to the WSW. 850hPa temperatures vary from -9C over northern Scotland to -3C
for Cornwall. The Azores High ridges NE'wards at T+144, bringing further
northerlies for the UK.

GM CPTEC: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/prevnum/Global126_sx6_Gl.shtml
A ridge lies to the west, with low pressure over Scotland; winds are
northerlies and WNW'lies over the UK.

KMA: http://www.kma.go.kr/kma03/gif/g21nh_smsr_120.gif
Northerlies and NW'lies are affecting the UK, due to a high to the SW and
another high to the north of Iceland.

On Tue, 15 Feb 2005 07:58:03 -0000, Darren Prescott wrote in


Hmm, this doesn't appear to have made it first time around.

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0601z,
15/02/05.

It appeared on my news server at just gone 6, Darren and Joe (JCW) replied
to it. It could be a problem with Supernews.

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 15/02/2005 08:49:21 UTC

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Hmm, this doesn't appear to have made it first time around.

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued
0601z,
15/02/05.

IF today's model output is accurate there will be a significant cold spell
next week, doubtless with substantial snow in prone areas. However, before
anyone gets excited there are still a *lot* of things that need to be
resolved by the models. For example, the Azores High ridging northwards
will
help set up a northerly flow, but the eventual cold spell is dependent on
a
high east of Svalbard retrogressing and merging with the Azores High. As
usual, the GFS is the most bullish about this and amazingly the
operational
run wasn't a cold outlier.

Even the MetO model is getting colder run by run,

No doubt that last sentence would account for the first suggestion on the R4
06:55 forecast this morning of "things possibly turning much colder into
next week". Up until then, I had heard no mention of it on the BBC
forecasts, only knew from my own following of the charts and all the similar
references on here at the moment. It will be a pleasant change if it comes
off but it's frequently seemed so close but never actually happened over the
last month or so.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

although it's nowhere near as snowy as the GFS, GEM, DWD etc. Bearing in
mind what happened a couple of weeks back, it's definately a case of as
ever, more runs are needed!


Interesting analysis snipped for brevity.

As ever... the 4 to 5 day timeframe is hard enough

Further ahead than that.. a bit of a lottery

Lessons were learned a couple of weeks ago, i hope

Also, some people, not all by any means, report snow, when it's
actually
hail, sleet or soft hail that is falling (wintry showers)

"Darren Prescott" wrote here on 15 Feb 2005:

Hmm, this doesn't appear to have made it first time around.
snip

It did - it's just that a small slip of the finger made the title
appear as "15/01/05".

--
Please remove ".invalid" to reply by email.

Support the world's oldest motorsport venue!
http://www.shelsley-walsh.co.uk/future.html

"David Buttery" wrote in message
...
It did - it's just that a small slip of the finger made the title
appear as "15/01/05".
D'oh, so *that's* where it went!

For what it's worth this is the closest I've been to that magic summary I
hope to write one day, that of "it will snow, no more runs needed."
Unfortunately now I've thrown caution to the wind it'll be just typical if
the models revert back to a milder "toppler" scenario!

On Tue, 15 Feb 2005 07:58:03 -0000, "Darren Prescott"
wrote:

Hmm, this doesn't appear to have made it first time around.

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0601z,
15/02/05.

IF today's model output is accurate there will be a significant cold spell
next week, doubtless with substantial snow in prone areas.

I can almost "hear" the adrenaline rush from certain areas of the enthusiast
community. Would the experts like to give an opinion as to why this one may
come off as against previous, similar scenarios?

As half-term is this week it may be a week too late. I'm off to Norfolk driving
at the weekend so here's hoping and dreading at the same time.

Martin

I tend to agree. To my untrained eye the pattern doesn't seem much different
to the other ones people were getting excited about in this time frame. It
will no doubt be quite cold again but will it just get gradually downgraded
as before?
We'll see by about Thursday.

Dave
"BlueLightning" wrote in message
oups.com...
As ever... the 4 to 5 day timeframe is hard enough

Further ahead than that.. a bit of a lottery

Lessons were learned a couple of weeks ago, i hope

Also, some people, not all by any means, report snow, when it's
actually
hail, sleet or soft hail that is falling (wintry showers)

"Pete B" wrote in message
...
"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
Hmm, this doesn't appear to have made it first time around.

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued
0601z,
15/02/05.

IF today's model output is accurate there will be a significant cold
spell
next week, doubtless with substantial snow in prone areas. However,
before
anyone gets excited there are still a *lot* of things that need to be
resolved by the models. For example, the Azores High ridging northwards
will
help set up a northerly flow, but the eventual cold spell is dependent
on
a
high east of Svalbard retrogressing and merging with the Azores High. As
usual, the GFS is the most bullish about this and amazingly the
operational
run wasn't a cold outlier.

Even the MetO model is getting colder run by run,

No doubt that last sentence would account for the first suggestion on the
R4
06:55 forecast this morning of "things possibly turning much colder into
next week". Up until then, I had heard no mention of it on the BBC
forecasts,

snip

I'm not so sure, the medium range guidance is based on all available model
data and not just the latest run of the GM. I suspect the main reason was up
until yesterday the next 'cold event' was still at least another 5 days away
and there's plenty of weather to come before then, including the departure
of the current sleet/snow.

Jon.

"JPG" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 15 Feb 2005 07:58:03 -0000, "Darren Prescott"
wrote:

Hmm, this doesn't appear to have made it first time around.

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued
0601z,
15/02/05.

IF today's model output is accurate there will be a significant cold
spell
next week, doubtless with substantial snow in prone areas.

I can almost "hear" the adrenaline rush from certain areas of the
enthusiast
community. Would the experts like to give an opinion as to why this one
may
come off as against previous, similar scenarios?

I'll leave the technical stuff to Martin/Will but the simple answer would
generally good consistency in the ensembles and also in the operational
model output over a period of days. (re EC/GFS).

Jon.