It is not just me who is panicking about what is happening in the
Arctic. See http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...ge.sciencenews

Of course if you are not a Guardian reader there is no need to worry.
You live in a different timewarp where the Arctic ice does not melt,
and open North West Passages are seen as an invitation to some.

On 5 Sep, 23:32, Alastair wrote:
It is not just me who is panicking about what is happening in the
Arctic. Seehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/sep/05/climatechange.scien...

Of course if you are not a Guardian reader there is no need to worry.
You live in a different timewarp where the Arctic ice does not melt,
and open North West Passages are seen as an invitation to some oil exporting nations such as the USA who are hell bent on destroying the world.

Yes Malcolm the term 'collapsed' is not a scientific term.......but what of
the comment made by Dr Serreze who said:
"If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its
ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030
is a reasonable estimate.
......is this a reasonable statement? ..... based on scientific observation.
Even the Guardian can't wrong ALL the time.
Cheers
Nick




"Malcolm" wrote in message
...

In article . com,
Alastair writes
It is not just me who is panicking about what is happening in the
Arctic. See
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...hange.sciencen
ews

Of course if you are not a Guardian reader there is no need to worry.
You live in a different timewarp where the Arctic ice does not melt,
and open North West Passages are seen as an invitation to some.

Hmm, the first sentence doesn't inspire confidence in what follows:

"The Arctic ice cap has collapsed at an unprecedented rate this summer"

I'd love to know how sea ice "collapses".

And the north west passage is navigable every summer. A neighbour of mine
went through it in his 42-foot yacht three years ago.

There's further rubbish statements lower down "Some colonies of [polar]
bears have already showed signs of malnutrition. Polar bears don't live in
"colonies".

--
Malcolm

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 5 Sep 2007, Alastair
wrote :

It is not just me who is panicking about what is happening in the
Arctic. See
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...hange.sciencen
ews

Of course if you are not a Guardian reader there is no need to worry.
You live in a different timewarp where the Arctic ice does not melt,
and open North West Passages are seen as an invitation to some.

Some of us believe this is a natural warming trend, therefore why should
we panic?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Malcolm wrote:


In article . com,
Alastair writes
It is not just me who is panicking about what is happening in the
Arctic. See
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...hange.sciencen
ews

Of course if you are not a Guardian reader there is no need to worry.
You live in a different timewarp where the Arctic ice does not melt,
and open North West Passages are seen as an invitation to some.

Hmm, the first sentence doesn't inspire confidence in what follows:

"The Arctic ice cap has collapsed at an unprecedented rate this summer"

I'd love to know how sea ice "collapses".

Certainly a questionable choice of words. However, the loss of ice this
summer is remarkable. The difference in ice cover between this summer and
the previous record low, 2005, is similar to the difference between 2005
and and the 1979-2000 average. See the articles at
http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_sea...810_index.html.


And the north west passage is navigable every summer. A neighbour of
mine went through it in his 42-foot yacht three years ago.

Nonsense. The NWP is (was?) rarely navigable, even when using icebreakers.
I've no idea how your neighbour got through in 2004 as the NWP was blocked
that year. What route is he supposed to have taken?


There's further rubbish statements lower down "Some colonies of [polar]
bears have already showed signs of malnutrition. Polar bears don't live
in "colonies".


OK, remove "colonies of".

--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
Send e-mails to "newsman" as mails to "newsboy" are ignored.

Yes Malcolm the term 'collapsed' is not a scientific term.......but what
of
the comment made by Dr Serreze who said:
"If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of
its
ice, then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030
is a reasonable estimate.
.....is this a reasonable statement? ..... based on scientific
observation.
Even the Guardian can't wrong ALL the time.

The Guardian quotes Dr Serreze, an "arctic specialist", from the institute
which released the report and one hopes that he was quoted accurately,
though my own experience of journalists is that this is by no means
guaranteed and, as I have demonstrated, the journalist who wrote this
article is guilty of sloppy, even inaccurate, writing.

I have no additional information that either confirms or denies what Dr
Serreze is quoted as saying, though in the nature of things it would be
unusual if every "arctic specialist" agreed with him!


I think the clue is in the words 'reasonable' and 'estimate'.

Paul Hyett wrote:

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 5 Sep 2007, Alastair
wrote :

It is not just me who is panicking about what is happening in the
Arctic. See
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...hange.sciencen
ews

Of course if you are not a Guardian reader there is no need to worry.
You live in a different timewarp where the Arctic ice does not melt,
and open North West Passages are seen as an invitation to some.

Some of us believe this is a natural warming trend, therefore why should
we panic?

There is little if anything natural about this warming trend. It was
forecast to happen if CO2 increased and that forecast has come true. There
are no credible explanations for how the warming could be natural.

Even if I were able to switch half my brain off for a while and believe the
warming trend was natural, I'd still worry because I'd want to know why the
ice was vanishing so quickly now, how long it would last, and what the
consequences would be. One suggestion over forty years ago was that a total
loss of the ice might trigger a sudden onset of an ice age. More recent
studies reject this but I'd still be concerned about the effects an
ice-free Arctic Ocean would have on the weather and climate

--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
Send e-mails to "newsman" as mails to "newsboy" are ignored.

Malcolm wrote:



Certainly a questionable choice of words. However, the loss of ice this
summer is remarkable. The difference in ice cover between this summer and
the previous record low, 2005, is similar to the difference between 2005
and and the 1979-2000 average. See the articles at
http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_sea...810_index.html.

I'm aware of the change in ice cover around Svalbard this summer, from
personal experience.

Lucky man. Nearest I got was a recce flight over the East Greenland ice
forty years ago. Quite enjoyable if I ignored being airsick for nearly half
the 11-hour flight.


And the north west passage is navigable every summer. A neighbour of
mine went through it in his 42-foot yacht three years ago.

Nonsense. The NWP is (was?) rarely navigable, even when using icebreakers.
I've no idea how your neighbour got through in 2004 as the NWP was blocked
that year.

I beg your pardon, I got the year wrong. It was 2003 and he was one of
two small boats to get through that season.

What route is he supposed to have taken?

http://www.norwegianblue.co.uk/


Thanks for that. Looks like he was damned lucky to get through. Looks like a
spell of easterly winds opened up a lead to the lee of the Boothia
Peninsula and Somerset Island at just the right time for them.

It's worth comparing the ice charts at that site with the current conditions
at http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084...SRE_visual.png. If he
had made the trip this year he'd have been spoilt for choice for ice-free
routes through the archipelago. Not so exiting though, I suppose.


--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
Send e-mails to "newsman" as mails to "newsboy" are ignored.

Graham P Davis wrote:

There is little if anything natural about this warming trend. It was
forecast to happen if CO2 increased and that forecast has come true. There
are no credible explanations for how the warming could be natural.


As human beings are a part of the entirety of nature, it is not only a credible
explanation, it is the only possible explanation. As far as science is aware,
there is nothing 'outside' of nature.


Even if I were able to switch half my brain off for a while and believe the
warming trend was natural ...


You would quickly note that as part of global warming and cooling cycles,
regardless of any specific individual cause but all natural nonetheless, when
the earth reaches its warmest point in a warm cycle, it quite naturally begins
the next long cooling cycle leading towards an ice age.

I see nothing 'sudden' in climate variation. That the earth will warm to the
point where it begins to cool again is an inevitability. That this will result
in the next ice age, long after everyone currently alive is long dead, and by
which time our species may have become extinct in the natural course of events,
is also an inevitability.

As such events could not be considered worrying under any circumstances, it is
fortunate for all of us here that it is very interesting.


--
Gianna

http://www.buchan-meteo.org.uk
* * * * * * *

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 6 Sep 2007, Graham P Davis
wrote :

Some of us believe this is a natural warming trend, therefore why should
we panic?

There is little if anything natural about this warming trend. It was
forecast to happen if CO2 increased and that forecast has come true.

Correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Just look at the rise
in internet use over the same period - by AGW logic, that has caused
global warming...

There
are no credible explanations for how the warming could be natural.

What caused all the past natural fluctuations in the Earth's climate -
the medieval optimum for example...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)