Oh boy fancy nearly missing this:
23:03.

It is very rare that a phase falls at exactly the same time within a
few months of the last one. In fact given that there are 24 hours in a
day and that a phase can land on any minute of any one of them, it is
rare for a phase to be within half an hour of another.

Suppose that the weather and events that occur during such a phase are
repeated to some extent if they occur with a 10 minute interval, then
it is likely that if they occur at the same time of day, even though
several months apart, there will be extreme likenesses.

As in this case:

12th August 2007, 23:03.
9th November 2007, 23:03

The lunar and solar declinations are different of course. That is not
to say their resultants or combined harmonic effect whatever that
turns out to be, won't be similar. I couldn't say. It's just the
chances of getting a declination similar are about as poor as getting
a phase similar.

(The moon makes a journey of some 54 degrees of declination every 27 -
28 days. It seems to have a long point of dwell at tdc and bdc too.)

It's around 27 degrees South for a few days at the moment for
instance. Have a look at the 22nd August he
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar

This is from a thread started on the 15th August:

4 tropical storms on the boards today. 2 of them super cyclones:
http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/
Ordinarily, the time of the phase at around 23:00 would produce a
reasonably fine spell of British weather. Unfortunately all the steam
for this set up is taken up in a sump filled with powerful hurricanes.

We were supposed to have severe weather high winds and heavy rain. I
can't say it was much more than occasionally breezy here, though it
has to be said that winds are very rare in this region. And the
weather was on the wet side with a little drizzle.

The most noticeable thing was the overcast. I would have expected
misty weather. That would have been true had the cell active in the
Gulf of Mexico produced a respectable blow.

16th:
Forest fires and drought conditions still affect much of Central
Europe -at least they were shown on the same news bulletins that spoke
of the Peru Quake.

And on the 17th:
And as if one disaster after another were not bad enough, the rescue
party that went into a collapsed mine in Utah yesterday have
themselves fallen victim to a fresh collapse.

Any similarities?

From: http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...09a9bf5d397a0#

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...10/160_-50.php
was upgraded to a 6.5 which is about as good as it gets there.
(Doesn't preclude more though. But then this wild storm we were
supposed to have wasn't what we were supposed to have was it?)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.
Significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean.North
Indian Ocean area (Malay peninsula west to coast of Africa.)

At 11:06 z, tropical cyclone 06b was located near 10.0 N 92.3 E,
approximately 95 nautical miles SSW of the Andaman Islands and had
tracked WNW-ward at 02 knots over the past 6 hours. maximum sustained
winds were estimated at 35 knots gusting to 45 knots.
http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/ab/abioweb.txt

Looks like a rebirth of Peipah to me but what do I know?

Pearl Harbor,Joinjt Typhoon Warning Centre significant tropical
weather advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans tropical
cyclone formation alert.
Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula.)

The area of convection previously located near 17.7 N 143.6 E, is now
located near 19.8 N 140.0 E, approximately 310 nautical miles SSW of
Iwo To.
http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

That's two.

Note that when Peipah went ashore on Vietnam(?) there was a surge in
seismic activity in that region around New Zealand. I bet the same
thing happened in August if there were any Asian Pacific storms doing
that. I wonder what the other storms revealed as they hit the beach.

Tracks available he http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/

It might take some finding as MetO pages are notoriously crappy to
browse. Something to do with the IT crowd taking over the jobs of real
weather forecasters no doubt.

Meanwhile there was a storm predicted for the UK which did have very
high tides but the Caspian seems to have been hit hardest:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7089317.stm

Some activity in the Indonesian volcanoes too:

The Anak Krakatau volcano spews ash and smoke in the Sunda strait of
Indonesia, November 10, 2007. Indonesia's "Child of Krakatau" volcano,
formed after Mount Krakatau's legendary eruption in 1883, has been
spitting out flaming rocks and smoke for days, but it is not
especially dangerous, a vulcanologist said on Friday.

http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures...lectionId=1275

The volcano archive is to be found he
http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/us...ontent=archive

(Notoriously inexact, as is the case of most sciences that haven't
progressed far from poking things with sticks.)

Looks like the spell if left unimpaired by foreign events will
concentrate its act if previous events have served to throw things
akilter in the recent past. Warnings of severe icing in Aberdeen have
been issued.

Here is the stuff from August with an apology to the people who
maintain the MetO website. I was having problems accessing it a while
back, maybe they were upgrading.


2007 09 02 - Santa Cruz Islands - M 7.2
2007 08 16 - Solomon Islands - M 6.7
2007 08 15 - Near the Coast of Central Peru - M 8.0 Fatalities 514
2007 08 15 - Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska - M 6.5
2007 08 14 - Island of Hawaii, Hawaii - M 5.4
2007 08 08 - Java, Indonesia - M 7.5
2007 08 02 - Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska - M 6.7
2007 08 01 - Vanuatu - M 7.2

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/...historical.php

Usagi 05W NWP 28 July 04 August 120 90
Chantal 03L NAT 31 July 01 August 45 -
Erick 08E NEP 31 July 02 August 35 -
- 06W NWP 02 August 07 August 35 30
Pabuk 07W NWP 05 August 09 August 65 65
Wutip 08W NWP 07 August 09 August 40 40
Flossie 09E NEP 08 August 16 August 120 -
Sepat 09W NWP 12 August 19 August 140 110
Dean 04L NAT 13 August 23 August 145 -
Erin 05L NAT 15 August 16 August 35 -

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...07/august.html

NAT is the North Atlantic, NEP is the NE Pacific and NWP is the NW
Pacific.

In the red:

Joint Typhoon Whatchermacallit Centre

Pearl Harbor hi

North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):

Sidr (Peipah?) was located near 10.8 N 90.4 E, approximately 140
nautical milesWSW Andaman Islands, and had tracked northwestward at 06
knots over the past six hours. maximum sustained surface winds were
estimated at 55 knots

http://www.hurricanezone.net/north-i...bulletins.html

It's been uninspiringly cold and dull since the nonevent of the storm
and superhigh tide a few days back.

I wonder how California is making out.

On Tue, 13 Nov 2007 19:27:28 -0800, Weatherlawyer
wrote:

It's been uninspiringly cold and dull since the nonevent of the storm
and superhigh tide a few days back.

I wonder how California is making out.


90 F at my house today.

On Nov 14, 4:02 am, Charles wrote:
On Tue, 13 Nov 2007 19:27:28 -0800, Weatherlawyer

wrote:
It's been uninspiringly cold and dull since the nonevent of the storm
and superhigh tide a few days back.

I wonder how California is making out.

90 F at my house today.

I hope there is no repeat of the last performance.

On Tue, 13 Nov 2007 20:12:22 -0800, Weatherlawyer
wrote:

On Nov 14, 4:02 am, Charles wrote:
On Tue, 13 Nov 2007 19:27:28 -0800, Weatherlawyer

wrote:
It's been uninspiringly cold and dull since the nonevent of the storm
and superhigh tide a few days back.

I wonder how California is making out.

90 F at my house today.

I hope there is no repeat of the last performance.


I hope so as well. Wind strength is much less this time.

On Nov 12, 2:42 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Suppose that the weather and events that occur during such a phase are
repeated to some extent if they occur with a 10 minute interval, then
it is likely that if they occur at the same time of day, even though
several months apart, there will be extreme likenesses.

5th Aug 21:20
1st Nov 21:18
http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclips...se2001gmt.html

Missed those two too. It will be interesting to compare storm records
for them in a fortnight:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ification.html

We were supposed to have severe weather high winds and heavy rain. I
can't say it was much more than occasionally breezy here, though it
has to be said that winds are very rare in this region. And the
weather was on the wet side with a little drizzle.

For what it's worth we are down one seven up or I have missed
something important. So I suspect that when the cradle does fall, it
will be in the region of Mag 8.

Either that or a series of high sixes and maybe two sevens.

Sidr looks to be headed straight for Bangladesh and is slated to hit
the delta tomorrow evening. So we will see something soon after that.

No idea what though. Maybe "02P" will take over. The phase of the 17th
Nov at 22:32 is interesting though.

http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/io0607.gif
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Trop...swp.latest.gif

On Nov 14, 9:50 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Suppose that the weather and events that occur during such a phase are
repeated to some extent if they occur with a 10 minute interval, then
it is likely that if they occur at the same time of day, even though
several months apart, there will be extreme likenesses.

5th Aug 21:20
1st Nov 21:18http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse/phase/phase2001gmt.html

Missed those two too. It will be interesting to compare storm records
for them in a fortnight:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ification.html

We were supposed to have severe weather high winds and heavy rain. I
can't say it was much more than occasionally breezy here, though it
has to be said that winds are very rare in this region. And the
weather was on the wet side with a little drizzle.

For what it's worth we are down one seven up or I have missed
something important. So I suspect that when the cradle does fall, it
will be in the region of Mag 8.

A large magnitude quake and a series of flutters struck Chile earlier
today, 6 to 7 hours after I posted last. At a guess I'd say that there
is a distance of some 120 degrees between the epicentre and the place
that Noel ended up would that be Scandinavia or the Caspian Sea?

Not sure.

Either that or a series of high sixes and maybe two sevens.

Sidr looks to be headed straight for Bangladesh and is slated to hit
the delta tomorrow evening. So we will see something soon after that.

No idea what though. Maybe "02P" will take over. The phase of the 17th
Nov at 22:32 is interesting though.

http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/io...swp.latest.gif

2007/11/14

4.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
4.6 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
4.9 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.3 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
7.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_all.php

There still remains the large quake in the Marianas to Maquarie
Islands' cell outstanding.

What should provide interest in the very near future is the similarity
of this spell with the next one. The times of the lunar phases are but
an half hour different. And the fact that I can't forecast such a
spell as it is so unstable.

But why is it unstable? It should produce an high somewhere to the
east of the UK. But half an hour represents some 2 hours of arc; that
is, 30 degrees.

Such an high could produce severe wintry weather in Northern Europe
but then, the likelihood is for severe storms to continue in the
tropical and subtropical Pacific.

And they can be severe enough to turn back the clock 4 or 5 hours. So
that instead of clear frosty weather, there could be wet weather or
dull overcast.

This last has varied from dull overcast to wet. So.another permutation
is a mixture of both types which would bring heavy falls of snow in
some area.
.....Could, I mean.

I am of course pleased with myself -as is only fair for my pains.

And I am sorry about the deaths of those caught up in the events. But
they would have died anyway and what is more, there will be more
deaths until this idea goes mainstream.

But if I was to keep silent in order to please my critics?

**** them!
None of my most vociferous critics has ever accomplished anything so
far as I am aware. And none of them is ever likely to. I, at least, am
clean of the blood of those who have died.

My sincere condolences to those they leave behind.

On Nov 14, 9:50 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Suppose that the weather and events that occur during such a phase are
repeated to some extent if they occur with a 10 minute interval, then
it is likely that if they occur at the same time of day, even though
several months apart, there will be extreme likenesses.

5th Aug 21:20
1st Nov 21:18http://sunearth.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse/phase/phase2001gmt.html

Missed those two too. It will be interesting to compare storm records
for them in a fortnight:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...ification.html

We were supposed to have severe weather high winds and heavy rain. I
can't say it was much more than occasionally breezy here, though it
has to be said that winds are very rare in this region. And the
weather was on the wet side with a little drizzle.

For what it's worth we are down one seven up or I have missed
something important. So I suspect that when the cradle does fall, it
will be in the region of Mag 8.

A large magnitude quake and a series of flutters struck Chile earlier
today, 6 to 7 hours after I posted last. At a guess I'd say that there
is a distance of some 120 degrees between the epicentre and the place
that Noel ended up would that be Scandinavia or the Caspian Sea?

Not sure.

Either that or a series of high sixes and maybe two sevens.

Sidr looks to be headed straight for Bangladesh and is slated to hit
the delta tomorrow evening. So we will see something soon after that.

No idea what though. Maybe "02P" will take over. The phase of the 17th
Nov at 22:32 is interesting though.

http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/io...solar.ifa.hawa...

2007/11/14

4.8 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.0 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.3 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
4.6 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
4.9 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
5.3 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA
5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
7.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_all.php

There still remains the large quake in the Marianas to Maquarie
Islands' cell outstanding.

What should provide interest in the very near future is the similarity
of this spell with the next one. The times of the lunar phases are but
an half hour different. And the fact that I can't forecast such a
spell as it is so unstable.

But why is it unstable? It should produce an high somewhere to the
east of the UK. But half an hour represents some 2 hours of arc; that
is, 30 degrees.

Such an high could produce severe wintry weather in Northern Europe
but then, the likelihood is for severe storms to continue in the
tropical and subtropical Pacific.

And they can be severe enough to turn back the clock 4 or 5 hours. So
that instead of clear frosty weather, there could be wet weather or
dull overcast.

This last has varied from dull overcast to wet. So.another permutation
is a mixture of both types which would bring heavy falls of snow in
some area.
.....Could, I mean.

I am of course pleased with myself -as is only fair for my pains.

And I am sorry about the deaths of those caught up in the events. But
they would have died anyway and what is more, there will be more
deaths until this idea goes mainstream.

But if I was to keep silent in order to please my critics?

None of my most vociferous critics has ever accomplished anything so
far as I am aware. And none of them is ever likely to. I, at least, am
clean of the blood of those who have died.

My sincere condolences to those they leave behind.