Well as of 25/01/08 all models are going solidly for major long wave
retrogression (high centred western/mid Atlantic) and very cold air plunging
down from north later next week and lasting into next weekend at least.

Still some oscillation in detail and ECMWF 00Z run is frightening with 1000-500
thickness down to 516DAM over Wales. Possibly an outlier. GFS is the least keen
on deep cold air which is unusual, so perhaps that is an outlier too as its
ensembles look cold. UKMO is in line but not as cold as the ECMWF (outlier?).
GEM is also less cold, throwing some more doubt on severity.

So some sleet and snow for a lot of people on low ground I'd say at end of next
week, particularly in west and north with still some west in the flow. My
personal confidence is now 65%, so still an amount of doubt obviously.

Nevertheless, I have primed the Haytor community for the probability of snow
above 250m asl from next Thursday onwards and I can hear the sound of sledges
being honed as I type, me ... I'm gonna check that log pile in the lovely dry
and sunny weather we have now :-)

Will
--

" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well as of 25/01/08 all models are going solidly for major long wave
retrogression (high centred western/mid Atlantic) and very cold air
plunging
down from north later next week and lasting into next weekend at least.

Still some oscillation in detail and ECMWF 00Z run is frightening with
1000-500
thickness down to 516DAM over Wales. Possibly an outlier. GFS is the
least keen
on deep cold air which is unusual, so perhaps that is an outlier too as
its
ensembles look cold. UKMO is in line but not as cold as the ECMWF
(outlier?).
GEM is also less cold, throwing some more doubt on severity.

So some sleet and snow for a lot of people on low ground I'd say at end of
next
week, particularly in west and north with still some west in the flow. My
personal confidence is now 65%, so still an amount of doubt obviously.

Nevertheless, I have primed the Haytor community for the probability of
snow
above 250m asl from next Thursday onwards and I can hear the sound of
sledges
being honed as I type, me ... I'm gonna check that log pile in the lovely
dry
and sunny weather we have now :-)

Will
--

" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Good chance of this coming off as I am doing something next Thursday and
Friday which entails being unable to be outside and possibly not having
access to an outside window. ;-(

Dave

Dave Cornwell wrote:

Good chance of this coming off as I am doing something next Thursday and
Friday which entails being unable to be outside and possibly not having
access to an outside window. ;-(

Yeah. I have my PhD viva voce on Thursday (!!). Don't want any snow
slowing me getting to the pub afterwards!

Jonathan

Dave you really must give up that job in the Dagenham catacombs .....perhaps
you could try a Lidl AWS ?, they work anywhere !

RonB


"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
. ..

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well as of 25/01/08 all models are going solidly for major long wave
retrogression (high centred western/mid Atlantic) and very cold air
plunging
down from north later next week and lasting into next weekend at least.

Still some oscillation in detail and ECMWF 00Z run is frightening with
1000-500
thickness down to 516DAM over Wales. Possibly an outlier. GFS is the
least keen
on deep cold air which is unusual, so perhaps that is an outlier too as
its
ensembles look cold. UKMO is in line but not as cold as the ECMWF
(outlier?).
GEM is also less cold, throwing some more doubt on severity.

So some sleet and snow for a lot of people on low ground I'd say at end
of next
week, particularly in west and north with still some west in the flow. My
personal confidence is now 65%, so still an amount of doubt obviously.

Nevertheless, I have primed the Haytor community for the probability of
snow
above 250m asl from next Thursday onwards and I can hear the sound of
sledges
being honed as I type, me ... I'm gonna check that log pile in the lovely
dry
and sunny weather we have now :-)

Will
--

" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Good chance of this coming off as I am doing something next Thursday and
Friday which entails being unable to be outside and possibly not having
access to an outside window. ;-(

Dave

06Z GFS has a 170 kt NW'ly jet coming off southern Greenland on Tues/Weds next
week.
Serious and interesting stuff that! Gives scope for rapidly deepening lows near
UK in cold air.
GFS still not keen on very cold air (like 00Z ECMWF) though.

There's no truth in the rumour that I'm now working for Weather Action :-)

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well as of 25/01/08 all models are going solidly for major long wave
retrogression (high centred western/mid Atlantic) and very cold air plunging
down from north later next week and lasting into next weekend at least.

Still some oscillation in detail and ECMWF 00Z run is frightening with
1000-500
thickness down to 516DAM over Wales. Possibly an outlier. GFS is the least
keen
on deep cold air which is unusual, so perhaps that is an outlier too as its
ensembles look cold. UKMO is in line but not as cold as the ECMWF (outlier?).
GEM is also less cold, throwing some more doubt on severity.

So some sleet and snow for a lot of people on low ground I'd say at end of
next
week, particularly in west and north with still some west in the flow. My
personal confidence is now 65%, so still an amount of doubt obviously.

Nevertheless, I have primed the Haytor community for the probability of snow
above 250m asl from next Thursday onwards and I can hear the sound of sledges
being honed as I type, me ... I'm gonna check that log pile in the lovely dry
and sunny weather we have now :-)

Will
--

" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-

God darn'n'dang it Will!

I've had enough of this winter already. I don't want any cold stuff,
especially the nasty, white slushy stuff. You don't think I'll get any here
in the Devon lowlands near the south coast?

Nice day here.
Feels like a mild, sunny day in January.

Currently (12:20) 11.0C, RH 70%, DP 6.0C, 1037.8 hPa (S), Wind 9 mph SW.
________________
Nick G
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

"Nick Gardner" wrote in message
...
God darn'n'dang it Will!

I've had enough of this winter already. I don't want any cold stuff,
especially the nasty, white slushy stuff. You don't think I'll get any here
in the Devon lowlands near the south coast?


Very marginal I'd say where you are, some west in the wind so a maritime
influence meaning temperatures circa 4C with you I'd say. So sleety stuff. Cold
enough though for some nice powder above 500m asl. Take a drive up to Belstone
and walk from there I'd recommend.

Nice day here.
Feels like a mild, sunny day in January.

Currently (12:20) 11.0C, RH 70%, DP 6.0C, 1037.8 hPa (S), Wind 9 mph SW.

7.7C here at 1400. Day max. 8.1C

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

On 25 Jan, 11:03, Jonathan Stott wrote:
Dave Cornwell wrote:
Good chance of this coming off as I am doing something next Thursday and
Friday which entails being unable to be outside and possibly not having
access to an outside window. ;-(

Yeah. I have my PhD viva voce on Thursday (!!). Don't want any snow
slowing me getting to the pub afterwards!

Good luck, Jonathan...

Richard

There's no truth in the rumour that I'm now working for Weather Action :-)
--------------------
We know that - you've got the odd one right now and again ;-))

Dave

12Z ECMWF is same story as 00Z!

In fact sub 510 DAM air into western Scotland on Friday and widespread sleet or
snow on Thursday with sub 522 DAM. Origin of the air is the pole itself and that
is mighty cold, even these days. As we are talking T+144 now from one of the
best models in the world confidence is now 70%. JMA and UKMO all go a very cold
wintry spell with widespread snow. Only GFS is now milder.

I'm getting a tad excited :-)

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well as of 25/01/08 all models are going solidly for major long wave
retrogression (high centred western/mid Atlantic) and very cold air plunging
down from north later next week and lasting into next weekend at least.

Still some oscillation in detail and ECMWF 00Z run is frightening with
1000-500
thickness down to 516DAM over Wales. Possibly an outlier. GFS is the least
keen
on deep cold air which is unusual, so perhaps that is an outlier too as its
ensembles look cold. UKMO is in line but not as cold as the ECMWF (outlier?).
GEM is also less cold, throwing some more doubt on severity.

So some sleet and snow for a lot of people on low ground I'd say at end of
next
week, particularly in west and north with still some west in the flow. My
personal confidence is now 65%, so still an amount of doubt obviously.

Nevertheless, I have primed the Haytor community for the probability of snow
above 250m asl from next Thursday onwards and I can hear the sound of sledges
being honed as I type, me ... I'm gonna check that log pile in the lovely dry
and sunny weather we have now :-)

Will
--

" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-