You where forecasting 25c and very sunny Paul.
Its in line with your famous unreliabilty.


Dawlish wrote:
On May 28, 4:06 pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
I think the warmth, humidity and thunder is now a matter of where,
rather than if. It's the forecasting of that, of course, where the
difficulties lie!

Paul
-----------------------
Warmth bit not materialised here ;-(
Dave

Nor here, Dave.......nor anywhere else for that matter, really!
Nothing approaching the 25C that was being forecast less than 2 days
ago. Interesting to see what transpired. Here's my take on it.

Up until 36 hours ago, forecasts were still for warmth and humidity,
being advected over the UK, behind a warm front and triggering
thunderstorms. The models began to back away from this about that
time, with The FAX charts showing the depression with which the warm
front was associated, beginning to occlude. Still last night,
forecasts were for thundery weather in SE England today, as well as
for last night. In the end, the only areas that experienced the
warmth were in the very far SE, around and just after midnight last
night. Gravesend, Manston, Langdon Bay and even as far West as
Herstmonceaux all reported a temperature increase in the early hours
of the morning, which was accompanied by heavy rain and reports of
thunder. It seems that the only UK influence of that sultry air that
Colin experienced in Brussels yesterday was in the very far SE and for
only a short time. The front quickly occluded, lifting that air away
from the surface.

A pig for the forecasters; the speed of the depression's occlusion was
not well handled by the models. The depression tracked as far West as
was expected, but the behaviour of the warm, moist air within its
circulation didn't really track west at all - at least not at the
surface. The amount of rain we've had in South Devon today is
testament to that! Tudor's experience of these situations not
delivering what is forecast was correct and will be reinforced!

Anyone else for why the warmth and humidity didn't transpire for SE
England, today? If anyone with operational forecasting experience can
throw more light on this, I'd be grateful.

Paul