It's not looking good for the first week, is it? A rise in pressure
over Scandinavia does look as if it will halt the zonal train at the
start of the month and as that pressure builds and stalls a low out to
the West of Ireland, another plume may be drawn Northwards. If it
doesn't topple, it could bring the warmest weather of the year so far
to Eastern parts on Tues/Wed next week. it also brings the threat of
some thunderstorms, before it is shunted out of the way by another low
and its associated troughs. A topple, just like the last one, and we
get into a showery, cool, flow before the heat even begins and the
near continental gets the heat, instead of the UK

Then the possibility of something pretty awful........last summer;
part 2!!

I said earlier that blocking over Scandinavia could mean very poor
weather for the UK. That block could lead to exactly the same slow
moving lows and heavy rain, as those that plagued us last summer.

Ouch!

Another pointless, and wrong forecast, or crapcast as I should say.
Who are you trying to impress?


Dawlish wrote:
It's not looking good for the first week, is it? A rise in pressure
over Scandinavia does look as if it will halt the zonal train at the
start of the month and as that pressure builds and stalls a low out to
the West of Ireland, another plume may be drawn Northwards. If it
doesn't topple, it could bring the warmest weather of the year so far
to Eastern parts on Tues/Wed next week. it also brings the threat of
some thunderstorms, before it is shunted out of the way by another low
and its associated troughs. A topple, just like the last one, and we
get into a showery, cool, flow before the heat even begins and the
near continental gets the heat, instead of the UK

Then the possibility of something pretty awful........last summer;
part 2!!

I said earlier that blocking over Scandinavia could mean very poor
weather for the UK. That block could lead to exactly the same slow
moving lows and heavy rain, as those that plagued us last summer.

Ouch!

On Jun 28, 8:12 am, Dawlish wrote:
It's not looking good for the first week, is it? A rise in pressure
over Scandinavia does look as if it will halt the zonal train at the
start of the month

If all "zonal trains" were like this one, I think most of us in the
south at least would be happy :-) I guess this week has shown what
happens if typical contemporary January set-ups happen in the
summer...

Nick

N.E Zephyr wrote:


Another pointless, and wrong forecast, or crapcast as I should say.
Who are you trying to impress?

For goodness sake, grow up.

On Jun 28, 12:01*pm, Ian Sutherland
wrote:
N.E Zephyr wrote:

Another pointless, and wrong forecast, or crapcast as I should say.
Who are you trying to impress?

For goodness sake, grow up.

I don't think my stalker undestands the difference between forecast
and commentary Ian! It's a crap forecast even when I haven't actually
forecast anything and on the day that the forecast, or commentary is
made! The forecasts are crap when they are correct, or incorrect and
crap whether it's a forecast, or not. At least he's consistent.

I think I can probably guess what he'll say to my 10-day forecast of
zonal conditions on the 30th!

Cue stalker.....

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jun 28, 12:01 pm, Ian Sutherland
wrote:
N.E Zephyr wrote:

Another pointless, and wrong forecast, or crapcast as I should say.
Who are you trying to impress?

For goodness sake, grow up.

I don't think my stalker undestands the difference between forecast
and commentary Ian! It's a crap forecast even when I haven't actually
forecast anything and on the day that the forecast, or commentary is
made! The forecasts are crap when they are correct, or incorrect and
crap whether it's a forecast, or not. At least he's consistent.

That's exactly what I consider your postings to be, your musings on
upcomimg possibilities/sceanarios and what might happen if certain
events do or don't happen. So not a forecast as such.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Jun 28, 1:32*pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Jun 28, 12:01 pm, Ian Sutherland
wrote:

N.E Zephyr wrote:

Another pointless, and wrong forecast, or crapcast as I should say.
Who are you trying to impress?

For goodness sake, grow up.
I don't think my stalker undestands the difference between forecast
and commentary Ian! It's a crap forecast even when I haven't actually
forecast anything and on the day that the forecast, or commentary is
made! The forecasts are crap when they are correct, or incorrect and
crap whether it's a forecast, or not. At least he's consistent.

That's exactly what I consider your postings to be, your musings on
upcomimg possibilities/sceanarios and what might happen if certain
events do or don't happen. So not a forecast as such.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Not in this instance Col. There's just not enough consistency, at
present, to forecast at T240 with any decent chance of success. The
Met Office has had exactly the same difficulty over this last week,
having, ignored the possibility of a temporary spell of hot weather at
the start of July, issued on Wednesday of this week, when it was being
shown on the gfs - but again without the consistency that I need for a
forecast. See the other thread and you'll see what I mean. Crazily,
that hot weather is stil not certain, by any means; the coming plume
may still not make it to the UK, or may only clip the SE. I don't
blame them in the slightest. I believe that the probability of
outcome, using whatever method you choose, to forecast at 10 days
plus, is very low, most of the time, for whichever agency, or
individual tries their hand at it. The Met office is truly caught
between a lake and a wet place. They just can't say that this, or
that, could happen. The public expects more than they are capable of
at that distance.

Even at a 4days, at the moment, most people expect the Met Office to
be, at least resonably, correct for next Wednesday's weather. Anyone
with any real meteorological knowledge would know that next
Wednesday's situation is fraught with difficulty. Will Wimbledon get a
sunny, humid, hot day, or will there be downpours? Or, will the plume
have toppled, leaving SW14 in azure blue skies, with white cumulus and
the outside possibility of a shower The detail is truly impossible and
probably will be up until much closer - perhaps even until late on
Wednesday Morning, as regards a decent forecast for the tennis.

The only reason I try my hand at occasional forecasts is to experiment
with trying to recognise when that possibility of a weather event/type
10 days hence, rises to a point where what is being shown on the
numerical models is actually likely to occur 10 days later.

I'm very aware of the fact that the Met Office has to forecast (lake
and a wet place, as regards public expectation and forecasting
capability, as I've said and many times that 10 day(ish) forecastwill
goes under - last Wednesday's was a good example) and the spread of
6-15 days in that forecast and the ambiguity and lack of forecast
detail shows the difficulty they have and the lack of confidence they
have in that forecast.

There's half-hearted attempt at desribing some of the forecasting
difficulties that the Met Office forecasters face on a daily basis, in
"The Tombs" magazine today, but it only tells a very small part of the
story.

Paul

"Ian Sutherland" wrote in message
. uk...
N.E Zephyr wrote:


Another pointless, and wrong forecast, or crapcast as I should say.
Who are you trying to impress?

For goodness sake, grow up.

It's a troll.. just killfile it. I did.

On Sat, 28 Jun 2008 at 00:12:20, Dawlish wrote in
uk.sci.weather :

It's not looking good for the first week, is it? A rise in pressure
over Scandinavia does look as if it will halt the zonal train at the
start of the month and as that pressure builds and stalls a low out to
the West of Ireland, another plume may be drawn Northwards. If it
doesn't topple, it could bring the warmest weather of the year so far
to Eastern parts on Tues/Wed next week. it also brings the threat of
some thunderstorms, before it is shunted out of the way by another low
and its associated troughs. A topple, just like the last one, and we
get into a showery, cool, flow before the heat even begins and the
near continental gets the heat, instead of the UK

Then the possibility of something pretty awful........last summer;
part 2!!

I enjoyed last summer's weather!

Even with our water being cut off for a week, it was better than being
roasted alive as I was in 2006.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

You dont do forecats then?
Whats all that ******** stats about how good you are at them all time then?

2 Faced.
PS We are still wating for your "10 days of summer" from your crappy
June "Crapcast"


Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 12:01 pm, Ian Sutherland
wrote:
N.E Zephyr wrote:

Another pointless, and wrong forecast, or crapcast as I should say.
Who are you trying to impress?
For goodness sake, grow up.

I don't think my stalker undestands the difference between forecast
and commentary Ian! It's a crap forecast even when I haven't actually
forecast anything and on the day that the forecast, or commentary is
made! The forecasts are crap when they are correct, or incorrect and
crap whether it's a forecast, or not. At least he's consistent.

I think I can probably guess what he'll say to my 10-day forecast of
zonal conditions on the 30th!

Cue stalker.....