Can't find any weather maps with fronts on (the weather.org.uk
facility appears to have stopped) but it looks like this is going to
be a particularly disappointing and front-encumbered high, with the
only chance of prolonged sun being in the far south on Tuesday. This
is particularly disappointing for what should be the sunniest time of
year... can anyone confirm this?

Nick

On 19 June, 07:56, Nick wrote:
Can't find any weather maps with fronts on (the weather.org.uk
facility appears to have stopped) but it looks like this is going to
be a particularly disappointing and front-encumbered high, with the
only chance of prolonged sun being in the far south on Tuesday. This
is particularly disappointing for what should be the sunniest time of
year... can anyone confirm this?

Nick

Well, I can confirm it's currently lovely & sunny here
www.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm. Likely to be some cumulus
development before it all goes inland this afternoon, every chance of
prolonged sunshine on the coast down here today. I think Sunday could
be particularly warm & sunny towards the south coasts of Devon &
Cornwall. The north coast could see some low cloud from the tail end
of the warm front.

Graham
Penzance

On Jun 19, 7:56*am, Nick wrote:
Can't find any weather maps with fronts on (the weather.org.uk
facility appears to have stopped) but it looks like this is going to
be a particularly disappointing and front-encumbered high, with the
only chance of prolonged sun being in the far south on Tuesday. This
is particularly disappointing for what should be the sunniest time of
year... can anyone confirm this?

Nick

How do you know? I don't think anyone can confirm it until it happens
Nick! At the moment everything is a forecast and the forecast charts
will always change somewhat before the events anyway. Judge it on
outcome and enjoy the sunny weather if it happens, or curse the
forecasters if it doesn't (that's what normally happens anyway!).

I wouldn't worry about it. The trend is for warmer, sunnier and drier
weather than of late, that's what counts. Plenty of time for the current
detail to change. Looking at the forecasts for the last week or so, it seems
that anything further out than a few days has really been nothing more than
an indication.

Many of the great summers I remember didn't really get going until the end
of June (1995) or even into early July (1990).

The weather certainly looks like it is going to be better here over the
weekend and into next week than central/eastern Europe and parts of Italy,
Balkans and Greece. Floods possible?

A bright, breezy morning with sunny spells.

(10:45), 16.0°C, RH 65%, DP 9.0°C, 1023 hPa, Wind 8 mph WNW.
______________________________
Nick
83 m amsl
Otter Valley, Devon
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

On Jun 19, 10:52*am, "Nick Gardner"
wrote:
I wouldn't worry about it. The trend is for warmer, sunnier and drier
weather than of late, that's what counts. Plenty of time for the current
detail to change. Looking at the forecasts for the last week or so, it seems
that anything further out than a few days has really been nothing more than
an indication.

Many of the great summers I remember didn't really get going until the end
of June (1995) or even into early July (1990).

The weather certainly looks like it is going to be better here over the
weekend and into next week than central/eastern Europe and parts of Italy,
Balkans and Greece. Floods possible?

I know what you mean there, I'm planning on going to southern Germany
next month and out of curiosity looked at the forecast weather there.
Hot at the moment but a sudden change to rain and low temperatures
(for the area) out to Tuesday.... maybe we should count ourselves
lucky! The high seems to be in that area too so I can only assume an
upper air feature? That seems to be one of the features of continental
climates, a tendency to very changeable weather in the spring and
early summer before more reliable weather sets in for mid/late summer
and autumn.

Nick

"Nick" wrote ...
Can't find any weather maps with fronts on (the weather.org.uk
facility appears to have stopped) ... snip rest

.... you can still find them on that site - not hosted there though:
use this link,

http://www.weather.org.uk/models.htm

and scroll down to 'United Kingdom' section.

For various reasons, the site can no longer directly host the charts,
but there are plenty of alternatives - some of them listed on that
page; one I use is:-

http://www.metbrief.com/charts.html

HTH,

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

yes it is a cloudy high.
the weekends forecast is much cloudier and lower temps than have been
forecast all week.

im just glad that dawlish got it wrong as well. as expected.


Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 19, 7:56 am, Nick wrote:
Can't find any weather maps with fronts on (the weather.org.uk
facility appears to have stopped) but it looks like this is going to
be a particularly disappointing and front-encumbered high, with the
only chance of prolonged sun being in the far south on Tuesday. This
is particularly disappointing for what should be the sunniest time of
year... can anyone confirm this?

Nick

How do you know? I don't think anyone can confirm it until it happens
Nick! At the moment everything is a forecast and the forecast charts
will always change somewhat before the events anyway. Judge it on
outcome and enjoy the sunny weather if it happens, or curse the
forecasters if it doesn't (that's what normally happens anyway!).

On Jun 21, 9:49*am, terry tibbs wrote:
yes it is a cloudy high.
the weekends forecast is much cloudier and lower temps than have been
forecast all week.

im just glad that dawlish got it wrong as well. as expected.

Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 19, 7:56 am, Nick wrote:
Can't find any weather maps with fronts on (the weather.org.uk
facility appears to have stopped) but it looks like this is going to
be a particularly disappointing and front-encumbered high, with the
only chance of prolonged sun being in the far south on Tuesday. This
is particularly disappointing for what should be the sunniest time of
year... can anyone confirm this?

Nick

How do you know? I don't think anyone can confirm it until it happens
Nick! At the moment everything is a forecast and the forecast charts
will always change somewhat before the events anyway. Judge it on
outcome and enjoy the sunny weather if it happens, or curse the
forecasters if it doesn't (that's what normally happens anyway!).

I've been on leave for more than a week now and have a policy of not
checking forecasts when not at work so this is not a comment on the
forecast for the coming week or how accurate any one source was (as I
do not know). However in general subsided marine boundary layers (esp.
Pm ones) tend to be rather cloudy with a lot of trapped Sc. How that
reacts on traversing land depends on a number of factors, maturity of
the layer, height of the inversion and BL flow strength are just
three. Sc forecasting is a nightmare at any time of the year and has a
huge impact on the weather and feel of the day.
To make things more difficult NWP models tend to under do boundary
layer cloud amounts, GFS being one of the worst offenders, as
evidenced by its tendency to overdo diurnal range. My experience, as a
user, is that GFS has fallen off the pace somewhat during the last 12
to 18 months, this supported by the statistics (depending on source)
placing it in roughly 3rd place with JMA, whilst GM and EC occupy the
top two positions. Certainly, as stated above, that fits with my
experience as a user of the various models.

Steve.
www.rockbeareweather.co.uk

On Jun 21, 11:12*am, Steve Willington
wrote:
On Jun 21, 9:49*am, terry tibbs wrote:





yes it is a cloudy high.
the weekends forecast is much cloudier and lower temps than have been
forecast all week.

im just glad that dawlish got it wrong as well. as expected.

Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 19, 7:56 am, Nick wrote:
Can't find any weather maps with fronts on (the weather.org.uk
facility appears to have stopped) but it looks like this is going to
be a particularly disappointing and front-encumbered high, with the
only chance of prolonged sun being in the far south on Tuesday. This
is particularly disappointing for what should be the sunniest time of
year... can anyone confirm this?

Nick

How do you know? I don't think anyone can confirm it until it happens
Nick! At the moment everything is a forecast and the forecast charts
will always change somewhat before the events anyway. Judge it on
outcome and enjoy the sunny weather if it happens, or curse the
forecasters if it doesn't (that's what normally happens anyway!).

Sc forecasting is a nightmare at any time of the year and has a
huge impact on the weather and feel of the day.

Steve.www.rockbeareweather.co.uk- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I agree entirely and thanks for the explanation. Best to judge how
cloudy this high will have been after the high has actually drifted
over us and away! Too many people try to pass judgement on forecasts
before they've achieved outcome. There's been blogosphere condemnation
of the MetO summer forecast (and on here too) already. There's people
saying that this high is likely to be cloudy. It may well be and there
is likely to be variable amounts of cloud, but I don't think it is
possible to tell how much and where the cloud is likely to be, even
now. It could be beautifully sunny in many areas. Personally, I doubt
it, though I think, like the MetO does, that some areas will get
plenty of sunshine from time-to-time. Other areas will probably be
unlucky.

I'm well aware, as is Steve, of the difficulties (impossibilities, I'd
say) of the accurate prediction of cloud cover at even very short
range, never mind long-range, in such a high as this. At the start of
the thread, Nick said that the only chance of prolonged sun would be
in the far south on Tuesday. I questioned how he could know this and
it is still a good question. *))

As for me, on June 16th I made this forecast for this coming Friday;

"At T240 on Friday 26th June, the majority of the UK will be
experiencing higher than average pressure and many areas will be in a
dry and a warm spell of weather."

Knowing the impossibilities of predicting cloud cover, in such a
summer anticyclone as this, I made no reference to it in the forecast.
It's enough to be able to forecast, with a good chance of accuracy,
that high pressure (or anything else, for that matter!) will actually
BE there at 10 days, never mind trying to forecast the cloud cover
associated with it in particular areas! No-one could do that. However,
I think this forecast for Friday still has a good chance of achieving
outcome as the models stand today.

SNIP
However in general subsided marine boundary layers (esp.
Pm ones) tend to be rather cloudy with a lot of trapped Sc. How that
reacts on traversing land depends on a number of factors, maturity of
the layer, height of the inversion and BL flow strength are just
three. Sc forecasting is a nightmare at any time of the year and has a
huge impact on the weather and feel of the day.

Steve.www.rockbeareweather.co.uk- Hide quoted text -


I agree with your point on sc forecasting. Quite commonly under these
conditions, there is quite a bit of sc out to sea, which dissipates
2-3 miles offshore, with small cumulus inland, leaving a cloudless
strip on the coast (as today). I have sometimes thought that the
seaward (descending) edge of the sea breeze circulation might aid the
destruction of the sc. Often the forecast is for north (Cornish) coast
misty low cloud (as today) when it's unbroken sunshine. But, as you
say, it's a forecasters nightmare. Best to use the surfcams.

Last 2 days have been reasonably sunny here, and today is absolutely
glorious, deep blue sky, along the coast with virtually no wind &
strong sunshine. Sunny on both coasts. We missed all the recent heavy
downpours, and the dunes are now looking browner than at any time last
year.

www.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm
www.minack.com/min02_7ref30.htm (bottom camera currently shows the sc
out to sea)

Graham
Penzance