Just an early heads up.

Both the gfs and the ECM have a fair old wet blow on the cards for
next week, possibly arriving next Thursday. Nothing on the MetO site
yet; this is what they have to say about next week and this was only
issued a few hours ago:

6-15 day forecast:

Initially southern and eastern areas are likely to be dry and very
warm with sunny spells but in the north and west cloud and rain is
likely on Wednesday. Some rain is then likely to reach the southeast
Thursday, to be followed by a return to sunshine and showers later in
the week and over the weekend. During the following week we are
currently expecting an unsettled southwesterly airstream, with showers
and also some longer periods of rain for most areas, especially the
northwest, with the best of the drier, brighter weather in
southeastern parts. It will be windy at times, especially in the
northwest where there is a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to
be generally near normal, but probably occasionally warmer in the
southeast.

Updated: 1157 on Fri 24 Jul 2009

It's the agreement between the two models that makes this interesting
for me and it is less than a week away. If this low does turn up, it
would be a very unusual example of a deep low appearing on the model
output well under the 10-day radar and actualy under the 7-day radar.
That doesn't often happen. Neither model was showing this deep low
earlier this morning. It could be gone on both by this evening, but
the agreement would suggest not.

I issued my update this morning Paul. Did you see that, as I used the phrase
"heads up" ?
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Just an early heads up.

Both the gfs and the ECM have a fair old wet blow on the cards for
next week, possibly arriving next Thursday. Nothing on the MetO site
yet; this is what they have to say about next week and this was only
issued a few hours ago:

6-15 day forecast:

Initially southern and eastern areas are likely to be dry and very
warm with sunny spells but in the north and west cloud and rain is
likely on Wednesday. Some rain is then likely to reach the southeast
Thursday, to be followed by a return to sunshine and showers later in
the week and over the weekend. During the following week we are
currently expecting an unsettled southwesterly airstream, with showers
and also some longer periods of rain for most areas, especially the
northwest, with the best of the drier, brighter weather in
southeastern parts. It will be windy at times, especially in the
northwest where there is a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to
be generally near normal, but probably occasionally warmer in the
southeast.

Updated: 1157 on Fri 24 Jul 2009

It's the agreement between the two models that makes this interesting
for me and it is less than a week away. If this low does turn up, it
would be a very unusual example of a deep low appearing on the model
output well under the 10-day radar and actualy under the 7-day radar.
That doesn't often happen. Neither model was showing this deep low
earlier this morning. It could be gone on both by this evening, but
the agreement would suggest not.

12Z GFS shows a real "screamer" now Paul.
The ensembles backed the development up at 06Z the 12Z ensembles should be
interesting.

Batten down those hatches folks a "summer storm" is on the cards!

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
I issued my update this morning Paul. Did you see that, as I used the
phrase "heads up" ?
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Just an early heads up.

Both the gfs and the ECM have a fair old wet blow on the cards for
next week, possibly arriving next Thursday. Nothing on the MetO site
yet; this is what they have to say about next week and this was only
issued a few hours ago:


forecast snipped

On Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:55:53 +0100, Will Hand wrote in


I issued my update this morning Paul. Did you see that, as I used the phrase
"heads up" ?
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

Ah but don't forget these words:-)

"From your accounts, your accuracy is completely based on hearsay,
anecdotal evidence, supposition and a complete lack of objective
evidence"

g

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 24/07/2009 17:21:50 GMT

On Jul 24, 3:55*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
I issued my update this morning Paul. Did you see that, as I used the phrase
"heads up" ?http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...



Just an early heads up.

Both the gfs and the ECM have a fair old wet blow on the cards for
next week, possibly arriving next Thursday. Nothing on the MetO site
yet; this is what they have to say about next week and this was only
issued a few hours ago:

6-15 day forecast:

Initially southern and eastern areas are likely to be dry and very
warm with sunny spells but in the north and west cloud and rain is
likely on Wednesday. Some rain is then likely to reach the southeast
Thursday, to be followed by a return to sunshine and showers later in
the week and over the weekend. During the following week we are
currently expecting an unsettled southwesterly airstream, with showers
and also some longer periods of rain for most areas, especially the
northwest, with the best of the drier, brighter weather in
southeastern parts. It will be windy at times, especially in the
northwest where there is a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to
be generally near normal, but probably occasionally warmer in the
southeast.

Updated: 1157 on Fri 24 Jul 2009

It's the agreement between the two models that makes this interesting
for me and it is less than a week away. If this low does turn up, it
would be a very unusual example of a deep low appearing on the model
output well under the 10-day radar and actualy under the 7-day radar.
That doesn't often happen. Neither model was showing this deep low
earlier this morning. It could be gone on both by this evening, but
the agreement would suggest not.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I didn't see it; I don't look at your site Will, but well done for
pointing to it. Was it on the 00z? I've been out and haven't seen the
models; then it jumped out at me and I opened the thread! You were
right to give it "moderate confidence", but that confidence has
increased a notch by the low lasting for another run. Hard to figure
why the MetO didn't give it a mention in the late morning 6-15 day
update when it was clearly on both models. It may not achieve
outcome, but as you say, it is still there on the 12z. Very unusual
for such a feature not to have been modelled on both the ECM and the
gfs charts before this morning and then to be modelled as deepening so
much. There probably was a low modelled before the 06z, but it was
nothing that attracted my attention.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

I didn't see it; I don't look at your site Will, but well done for
pointing to it. Was it on the 00z? I've been out and haven't seen the
models; then it jumped out at me and I opened the thread! You were
right to give it "moderate confidence", but that confidence has
increased a notch by the low lasting for another run. Hard to figure
why the MetO didn't give it a mention in the late morning 6-15 day
update when it was clearly on both models.

The 6-15 day forecast you quoted talked of wet and windy conditions at times
with a risk of gales. I'm not sure what else you expect at this range,
unless of course you think it merits a very early warning of severe gales
(http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._warnings.html)
and given the uncertainty regarding depth and track of the low on both
deterministic and ensemble output, it doesn't.

Jon.

Just in time for the start of the Edgbaston Test. :-(

Jim.


"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Just an early heads up.

Both the gfs and the ECM have a fair old wet blow on the cards for
next week, possibly arriving next Thursday. Nothing on the MetO site
yet; this is what they have to say about next week and this was only
issued a few hours ago:

6-15 day forecast:

Initially southern and eastern areas are likely to be dry and very
warm with sunny spells but in the north and west cloud and rain is
likely on Wednesday. Some rain is then likely to reach the southeast
Thursday, to be followed by a return to sunshine and showers later in
the week and over the weekend. During the following week we are
currently expecting an unsettled southwesterly airstream, with showers
and also some longer periods of rain for most areas, especially the
northwest, with the best of the drier, brighter weather in
southeastern parts. It will be windy at times, especially in the
northwest where there is a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to
be generally near normal, but probably occasionally warmer in the
southeast.

Updated: 1157 on Fri 24 Jul 2009

It's the agreement between the two models that makes this interesting
for me and it is less than a week away. If this low does turn up, it
would be a very unusual example of a deep low appearing on the model
output well under the 10-day radar and actualy under the 7-day radar.
That doesn't often happen. Neither model was showing this deep low
earlier this morning. It could be gone on both by this evening, but
the agreement would suggest not.

On Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:55:53 +0100, Will Hand wrote in


I issued my update this morning Paul. Did you see that, as I used the phrase
"heads up" ?
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

The latest GFS jet stream forecast shows a lively (120kn) jet heading into
NW France with the Br. Isles in the left exit region at 12Z on Wednesday.

http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_atl_h120_00.gif and

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12015.html

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 24/07/2009 21:46:11 GMT

On 24 July, 22:15, "Jim Smith" wrote:
Just in time for the start of the Edgbaston Test. :-(

I dunno - gives the Aussies one less Test to get a result !!

Richard

Will Hand wrote:
12Z GFS shows a real "screamer" now Paul.
The ensembles backed the development up at 06Z the 12Z ensembles should
be interesting.

Batten down those hatches folks a "summer storm" is on the cards!

Will
--


Just in time for an arrival back to the UK after 12 weeks of 40degC+
heat here in Qatar.

Thanks for the heads-up, I will keep an eye on developments. I'm
actually quite excited about seeing some precipitation.

FWIW, maximum temperature here today was 48degC after a minimum of
36degC overnight. Thankfully the humidity has continued to remain low
with dew points just below 20degC, however the UAE is suffering with dew
points recently hitting 31-32degC.

Regards

Joe
--
Doha, Qatar