I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume. Some very hot weather for Spain and SW France is now
likely, with an escape of hot air from north Africa. An Atlantic low
could spoil it for us by toppling the plume and forcing the heat
further east, so there's no certainties in this, but it would be a
welcome respite from this cool and wet weather if it came off.

Thankfully i'm heading back down to southern Germany to work for another
month next week so hopefully i will find something better than what were
getting now here, my last stint down the which finished a couple of weeks
ago was a tad wet since i left there has been very little in the way of
rain.

Good luck on your plume!

Robbie

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume. Some very hot weather for Spain and SW France is now
likely, with an escape of hot air from north Africa. An Atlantic low
could spoil it for us by toppling the plume and forcing the heat
further east, so there's no certainties in this, but it would be a
welcome respite from this cool and wet weather if it came off.

On Jul 30, 8:36*am, "Ridge Runner" wrote:
Thankfully i'm heading back down to southern Germany to work for another
month next week so hopefully i will find something better than what were
getting now here, my last stint down the which finished a couple of weeks
ago was a tad wet since i left there has been very little in the way of
rain.

Good luck on your plume!

Robbie

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...



I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume. Some very hot weather for Spain and SW France is now
likely, with an escape of hot air from north Africa. An Atlantic low
could spoil it for us by toppling the plume and forcing the heat
further east, so there's no certainties in this, but it would be a
welcome respite from this cool and wet weather if it came off.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The MetO don't believe any real warmth is on the way next week.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Aug 2009 to Thursday 13 Aug 2009:
All parts are likely to start unsettled. Rain in northern parts on
Tuesday should clear to sunshine and showers, but more rain is
expected to spread into the northwest on Wednesday. The southeast may
start dry, but rain across Central parts is likely to last into
Wednesday. Temperatures should be near normal, with strong winds in
some coastal parts. All parts are likely to remain unsettled through
the second half of next week and into the following week, with showers
or longer spells of rain, but also some dry and brighter spells. The
most persistent rain is likely to occur in the north and west, where
it will also be windy at times. The south and east should be drier and
brighter. Temperatures in all parts should be near normal.

Updated: 1239 on Thu 30 Jul 2009

i.e. no real end to the unsettled weather and no heat at all.

These are the London ensembles for the 06z today.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Yesterday, the warm operational run was a massive outlier. Not today.
With the ensembles like this, at only 6-8 days, you might think there
would be a mention of a possible short period of very warm weather
next week? Like I said earlier, nothing is nailed on with this plume,
it could topple and miss us. After yesterday and the awfully critical
headlines in the papers this morning, maybe the MetO forecasters are
under pain of not having any more tea breaks at all if they even
mention the possibility of warm weather in even a medium-term
forecast. Maybe the powers that be have even threatened the 6-15 day
forecaster with removal of biccie priviledges if he mentions the
slightest bit of warmth!!

self gloating post #249947294714724




Dawlish wrote:
I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume. Some very hot weather for Spain and SW France is now
likely, with an escape of hot air from north Africa. An Atlantic low
could spoil it for us by toppling the plume and forcing the heat
further east, so there's no certainties in this, but it would be a
welcome respite from this cool and wet weather if it came off.

On Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:11:17 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume.

This is where one looks closely at the 564 line on charts, I presume.

R

On Jul 31, 7:53*am, Robin Nicholson
wrote:
On Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:11:17 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume.

This is where one looks closely at the 564 line on charts, I presume.

R

gfs topples the plume a little further this morning:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1382.png

ECM keeps the chances alive (just; with a following wind; fingers
crossed):

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...test!chart.gif

It's not looking very good......

On Jul 31, 7:53*am, Robin Nicholson
wrote:
On Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:11:17 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume.

This is where one looks closely at the 564 line on charts, I presume.

R

You can get the 564 line in October, quite often with stratus,
wind, drizzle and 16°C. Maybe that's what you meant - to get the
warmth the sun has to come out.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On 31 July, 15:45, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Jul 31, 7:53*am, Robin Nicholson

wrote:
On Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:11:17 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume.

This is where one looks closely at the 564 line on charts, I presume.

R

* * * * You can get the 564 line in October, quite often with stratus,
wind, drizzle and 16°C. *Maybe that's what you meant - to get the
warmth the sun has to come out.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I think that the chances of high temperatures in London and SE England
later next week are very good. The 564 line may give stratus and
drizzle in Oct, but this will be Aug and that equates to temperatures
reaching 26-28 C (at least) , because the sun tends to 'come out' at
this time of year in those conditions, as the stratus gets burned off
pretty quickly.

As London and SE England is all that the 'national' media care about,
I suspect that the Met Office is in for some pretty serious criticism
later next week.

For those of a nervous disposition, please dont read Simon Jenkins'
comment in today's Guardian. It will only serve to give an idea of
what might be about to occur.

On Jul 31, 7:09*pm, sutartsorric wrote:
On 31 July, 15:45, Tudor Hughes wrote:





On Jul 31, 7:53*am, Robin Nicholson

wrote:
On Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:11:17 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume.

This is where one looks closely at the 564 line on charts, I presume.

R

* * * * You can get the 564 line in October, quite often with stratus,
wind, drizzle and 16°C. *Maybe that's what you meant - to get the
warmth the sun has to come out.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I think that the chances of high temperatures in London and SE England
later next week are very good. The 564 line may give stratus and
drizzle in Oct, but this will be Aug and that equates to temperatures
reaching 26-28 C (at least) , because the sun tends to 'come out' at
this time of year in those conditions, as the stratus gets burned off
pretty quickly.

As London and SE England is all that the 'national' media care about,
I suspect that the Met Office is in for some pretty serious criticism
later next week.

For those of a nervous disposition, please dont read Simon Jenkins'
comment in today's Guardian. It will only serve to give an idea of
what might be about to occur.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'm more than a little perplexed at the 6-15 day forecast.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Aug 2009 to Friday 14 Aug 2009:
Northern and western areas seeing rain at first, which may be heavy
but turning showery by Thursday. A risk of thundery rain in the south-
east too, but more central parts may start dry and fairly bright.
Rather unsettled through the weekend with the most frequent rain or
showers in the north and west with an indication of some drier and
brighter conditions across the south of the UK for a time.
Temperatures near normal generally but locally warm in sunnier spells
in central and southern areas. Through the following week the north
looks set to remain unsettled with rain and strong winds at times,
whilst the south will see occasional rain but some drier spells with
sunshine at times too.

Updated: 1224 on Fri 31 Jul 2009

Apart from a reference to "locally warm in sunnier spells", there's
nothing about the possibility of heat next week. The way this possible
plume has been modelled by the gfs today is not as a toppler. Today's
models stall the low and push it more to the NW. This may allow more
of the heat to spread in from the continent and the 12z models the
heat staying and pressure rising to our SE. It's a very interesting
situation for heat. There's been nothing like that modelled for 3
years and the 20C 850hpa isotherm keeps playing with the SE at 10
days.

If these models verify, what on earth is the MetO going to say? With
luck - and it may now take that - the next 48 hours will see a more
progressive bent to the models and the UK will be saved from a
"barbecue August"!

It really is a very interesting situation.

Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 31, 7:09 pm, sutartsorric wrote:
On 31 July, 15:45, Tudor Hughes wrote:





On Jul 31, 7:53 am, Robin Nicholson
wrote:
On Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:11:17 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:
I did mention this yesterday, but there are possibilities of some very
warm weather in the second part of next week, especially for the SE,
with a plume.
This is where one looks closely at the 564 line on charts, I presume.
R
You can get the 564 line in October, quite often with stratus,
wind, drizzle and 16°C. Maybe that's what you meant - to get the
warmth the sun has to come out.
Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.
I think that the chances of high temperatures in London and SE England
later next week are very good. The 564 line may give stratus and
drizzle in Oct, but this will be Aug and that equates to temperatures
reaching 26-28 C (at least) , because the sun tends to 'come out' at
this time of year in those conditions, as the stratus gets burned off
pretty quickly.

As London and SE England is all that the 'national' media care about,
I suspect that the Met Office is in for some pretty serious criticism
later next week.

For those of a nervous disposition, please dont read Simon Jenkins'
comment in today's Guardian. It will only serve to give an idea of
what might be about to occur.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'm more than a little perplexed at the 6-15 day forecast.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Aug 2009 to Friday 14 Aug 2009:
Northern and western areas seeing rain at first, which may be heavy
but turning showery by Thursday. A risk of thundery rain in the south-
east too, but more central parts may start dry and fairly bright.
Rather unsettled through the weekend with the most frequent rain or
showers in the north and west with an indication of some drier and
brighter conditions across the south of the UK for a time.
Temperatures near normal generally but locally warm in sunnier spells
in central and southern areas. Through the following week the north
looks set to remain unsettled with rain and strong winds at times,
whilst the south will see occasional rain but some drier spells with
sunshine at times too.

Updated: 1224 on Fri 31 Jul 2009

Apart from a reference to "locally warm in sunnier spells", there's
nothing about the possibility of heat next week. The way this possible
plume has been modelled by the gfs today is not as a toppler. Today's
models stall the low and push it more to the NW. This may allow more
of the heat to spread in from the continent and the 12z models the
heat staying and pressure rising to our SE. It's a very interesting
situation for heat. There's been nothing like that modelled for 3
years and the 20C 850hpa isotherm keeps playing with the SE at 10
days.

If these models verify, what on earth is the MetO going to say? With
luck - and it may now take that - the next 48 hours will see a more
progressive bent to the models and the UK will be saved from a
"barbecue August"!

It really is a very interesting situation.

I have no doubt you'll have a heatwave here in the next two weeks, we
always do when I'm out the Country ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net