Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather, the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

--
www.layton.me.uk/meteo.htm

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather, the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil


Now now, Phil :-)

Will
--

On Aug 5, 7:30*am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Phil Layton" wrote in message

...

Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather, the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

Now now, Phil :-)

Will
--

The biggest irony was that that the models changed on the exact day
that the updated forecast was released. I only have so much sympathy
in this for the MetO, as it was so badly handled as all the evidence
points to seasonal forecasting being, at best, a nascent area of
meteorolgy. To attach any kind of confidence to these forecasts is
just asking for trouble. That's not a snipe over this particular
summer, I've been banging on about the fact that seasonal forecasting
has very low accuracy outcomes for years*. I do feel sorry for the
desk forecasters and those at the Hadley Centre, as this summer's
awful forecasts will be used as "evidence" for not trusting models for
the future, or for glossing over the excellent progress at forecasting
from 3-5 days. Unfortunately for the MetO, the next 10 days, or so,
are looking like BBQ and beach weather 8)) . Grab your sunhats and
get out there!

*The coming Internet winter forecasts from "respected forecasters" are
no more than a bit of fun, no matter who isuues them and no matter how
many telecommunication "signals" they may have spotted!

On Aug 5, 10:47*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 5, 7:30*am, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Phil Layton" wrote in message

...

Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather, the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

Now now, Phil :-)

Will
--

The biggest irony was that that the models changed on the exact day
that the updated forecast was released. I only have so much sympathy
in this for the MetO, as it was so badly handled as all the evidence
points to seasonal forecasting being, at best, a nascent area of
meteorolgy. To attach any kind of confidence to these forecasts is
just asking for trouble. That's not a snipe over this particular
summer, I've been banging on about the fact that seasonal forecasting
has very low accuracy outcomes for years*. I do feel sorry for the
desk forecasters and those at the Hadley Centre, as this summer's
awful forecasts will be used as "evidence" for not trusting models for
the future, or for glossing over the excellent progress at forecasting
from 3-5 days. Unfortunately for the MetO, the next 10 days, or so,
are looking like BBQ and beach weather 8)) . Grab your sunhats and
get out there!

*The coming Internet winter forecasts from "respected forecasters" are
no more than a bit of fun, no matter who isuues them and no matter how
many telecommunication "signals" they may have spotted!

Though it has to be said that if this month ends up warm-ish and dry-
ish, the original forecast of an overall better than average summer
will be realised. It is just unfortunate (if you weren't lucky enough
to be out of this part of Europe for much of July!) that all the bad
weather will have been concentrated into one month from July 4th or
so, and how we got cool daytime temperatures masked by higher night-
time temperatures.

Nick

On 5 Aug, 06:16, "Phil Layton" wrote:
Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather, the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

--www.layton.me.uk/meteo.htm

The Met Office lay themselves open to ridicule by issuing these
seasonal forecasts. Far better to admit that seasonal forecasting is
experimental and not over publicise them so that the red-top comics
don't latch on and come up with ridiculous headlines.

Sadly, the bulk of the British population is scientifically sub-
literate - most of them are even proud of the fact that they are
scientifically and mathematically challenged - issuing these forecasts
plays into the hand of the these people and their red-top
cheerleaders.


Martin

On Aug 5, 12:57*pm, JPG wrote:
On 5 Aug, 06:16, "Phil Layton" wrote:

Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather, the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

--www.layton.me.uk/meteo.htm

The Met Office lay themselves open to ridicule by issuing these
seasonal forecasts. *Far better to admit that seasonal forecasting is
experimental and not over publicise them so that the red-top comics
don't latch on and come up with ridiculous headlines.

Sadly, the bulk of the British population is scientifically sub-
literate - most of them are even proud of the fact that they are
scientifically and mathematically challenged - issuing these forecasts
plays into the hand of the these people and their red-top
cheerleaders.

Martin

If the Met Office didn't issue these forecasts the trashy
tabloids and ther dim-witted readers would scream and shout and ask
what the Met Office is doing "with our money." You can't win. The
best thing would be to quietly discontinue seasonal forecasts for the
public and hope no-one notices, or, if they must persist with them, to
only use the driest scientific terms they can get away with. The
forecasts are of pretty well no use to the man-in-the-street anyway
though they may be of some use to industry and retail.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Tudor Hughes wrote:

If the Met Office didn't issue these forecasts the trashy
tabloids and ther dim-witted readers would scream and shout and ask
what the Met Office is doing "with our money." You can't win. The
best thing would be to quietly discontinue seasonal forecasts for the
public and hope no-one notices, or, if they must persist with them, to
only use the driest scientific terms they can get away with. The
forecasts are of pretty well no use to the man-in-the-street anyway
though they may be of some use to industry and retail.

History tells us you're right. The monthly forecasts started to be published
after questions were asked in the House when the public became aware of the
US forecasts for Europe in the 1962-3 winter - via AFN I think. They were
"always right" - as was persistence in that winter - so the question was
asked why the Met Office couldn't do as well.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather, the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

--
www.layton.me.uk/meteo.htm


They're getting more and morelike an independent weather forcasting website
who claimed long range accuracy that changed every few weeks to help
maintain that accuracy. Now I wonder who they are? Ah yes UKMO

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
...
On Aug 5, 12:57 pm, JPG wrote:
On 5 Aug, 06:16, "Phil Layton" wrote:

Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather,
the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

--www.layton.me.uk/meteo.htm

The Met Office lay themselves open to ridicule by issuing these
seasonal forecasts. Far better to admit that seasonal forecasting is
experimental and not over publicise them so that the red-top comics
don't latch on and come up with ridiculous headlines.

Sadly, the bulk of the British population is scientifically sub-
literate - most of them are even proud of the fact that they are
scientifically and mathematically challenged - issuing these forecasts
plays into the hand of the these people and their red-top
cheerleaders.

Martin

If the Met Office didn't issue these forecasts the trashy
tabloids and ther dim-witted readers would scream and shout and ask
what the Met Office is doing "with our money." You can't win. The
best thing would be to quietly discontinue seasonal forecasts for the
public and hope no-one notices, or, if they must persist with them, to
only use the driest scientific terms they can get away with. The
forecasts are of pretty well no use to the man-in-the-street anyway
though they may be of some use to industry and retail.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.


Well Tudor I you are expecting sympathy for the poor old Met because
predicting LRF are tough? Then all I can say is don't predict them then

The truth is the UKMO is so convinced by the AGW models and the government
playing them like a fiddle that they just have to get AGW and killer heat
waves out there into the public psyche at all costs.

All a bit like Swine Flu, Legfionellas and other hyped up lies.

"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather,
the progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

--
www.layton.me.uk/meteo.htm


They're getting more and morelike an independent weather forcasting
website who claimed long range accuracy that changed every few weeks to
help maintain that accuracy. Now I wonder who they are? Ah yes UKMO


Ok, I think we've all got the point you're not UKMO's No.1 fan. Your bigotry
is quite irritating

I think UKMO are marvellous, 2 - 3 days out the forecasts are spookily
accurate. With such a variable UK climate, accurate predictions are critical
to our daily lives. I can choose car/bicycle/motorbike and appropriate
clothing for work with no worries. I can plan golf, fishing, days out with
excellent confidence of what weather to expect. I know when to water the
garden, when not to bother, when to dress the lawn before rain, when to wash
the car. When to do outdoor painting, when *not* to light the B-B-Q, etc,
etc.

BTW I've got no connection with UKMO but I went to Exeter once a few years
back. The weather (as forecast) was lovely.

T