"Graham Easterling"
What are time (and indeed medium) are you using as the base forecast
for this?


.... have a look at the first post in this thread.

Martin.








--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

On 30 Aug, 12:13, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
"Graham Easterling"

What are time (and indeed medium) are you using as the base forecast
for this?

... have a look at the first post in this thread.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N * Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

I may be missing something, but it's still not clear to me which WEB
forecast you are using as the base. The forecast maps are updated at
different times to the text, and sometimes don't agree.

Are you using Thurday's forecast for Monday, if so which, as they
changed. Or are you using a more recent forecast?

I had read the top post, I just wanted a bit of clarification.

Graham
Penzance

"Martin Rowley" wrote ...
http://freespace.virgin.net/martin.r...OH_AugBH09.htm
... Friday's round-up:
9 Greens, 5 Yellows, 1 Amber (from forecasts various starting
Tuesday)
... Saturday's round-up:
19 Greens (from forecasts various starting Tuesday)

Tomorrow should be interesting!
.... and it was: a dreary, dull, damp day.

.... Sunday's round-up:
3 Greens, 1 Yellow, 7 Amber, 11 Red

[ the forecasts issued close to the day were just as bad as those 4 or
5 days away]

Aggregate (so far):

Green: 31 (55%)
Yellow: 6 (11%)
Amber: 8 (14%)
Red: 11 (20%)

Martin.



--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

"Graham Easterling" wrote ...

I may be missing something, but it's still not clear to me which WEB
forecast you are using as the base. The forecast maps are updated at
different times to the text, and sometimes don't agree.

.... the Met Office point-specific web forecasts, example he-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...t_weather.html


Are you using Thurday's forecast for Monday, if so which, as they
changed. Or are you using a more recent forecast?

.... if you follow the link in the original (and follow-up) post, then
for each forecast issue, it defines when the forecast was issued at
the top of each block. So, for Monday, I'm looking at all
site-specific & regional text forecasts for that day (where available)
from Tuesday last week onwards.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

On Aug 30, 9:47*pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
"Graham Easterling" wrote ...

I may be missing something, but it's still not clear to me which WEB
forecast you are using as the base. The forecast maps are updated at
different times to the text, and sometimes don't agree.

... the Met Office point-specific web forecasts, example he-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...orecast_weathe...

Are you using Thurday's forecast for Monday, if so which, as they
changed. Or are you using a more recent forecast?

... if you follow the link in the original (and follow-up) post, then
for each forecast issue, it defines when the forecast was issued at
the top of each block. So, for Monday, I'm looking at all
site-specific & regional text forecasts for that day (where available)
from Tuesday last week onwards.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N * Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

I'm following this with interest Martin. I'll bet a lot are. Anyone
who tries to gain an objective appreciation of MetO forecasts deserves
that. At 5 days, I'd expect the MetO to be good, but how exactly how
would we define "good". NOAA are very specific about their success
criteria in their 5-day percentage outcome accuracy assessments of the
models, but what you're doing is different and is just what should be
factored in to any evaluation of a forecast; what the people on the
ground think. It really is crucial to traders on the south coast, as
you say. To judge the accuracy of forecasts, it woukld be really good
to do consumer surveys on crucial days like this. I think the MetO
could get some seriously good press out of it, actually. I know you
are not really going down that line, but your approach is very
customer biased. I like that.

On Aug 30, 9:41*pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
"Martin Rowley" wrote ...
http://freespace.virgin.net/martin.r...OH_AugBH09.htm
... Friday's round-up:
9 Greens, 5 Yellows, 1 Amber (from forecasts various starting
Tuesday)
... Saturday's round-up:
19 Greens (from forecasts various starting Tuesday)
Tomorrow should be interesting!

... and it was: a dreary, dull, damp day.

... Sunday's round-up:
3 Greens, 1 Yellow, 7 Amber, 11 Red

[ the forecasts issued close to the day were just as bad as those 4 or
5 days away]

Yes I was surprised at that, the 1300 chart showed the front still
over Cornwall, so I'd have expected for the central south coast to
have a sunny morning with only high cloud, with no precipitation until
at least 1600. Instead it was overcast from the outset in this area
(Southampton) and the first drizzle was as early as 0930. The various
forecasts seemed to be suggesting anything between 20 and 22. So why
did it cloud over so very early in the day - did the front move in
much quicker than expected?

Nick

On 30 Aug, 22:57, Nick wrote:
On Aug 30, 9:41*pm, "Martin Rowley"





wrote:
"Martin Rowley" wrote ...
http://freespace.virgin.net/martin.r...OH_AugBH09.htm
... Friday's round-up:
9 Greens, 5 Yellows, 1 Amber (from forecasts various starting
Tuesday)
... Saturday's round-up:
19 Greens (from forecasts various starting Tuesday)
Tomorrow should be interesting!

... and it was: a dreary, dull, damp day.

... Sunday's round-up:
3 Greens, 1 Yellow, 7 Amber, 11 Red

[ the forecasts issued close to the day were just as bad as those 4 or
5 days away]

Yes I was surprised at that, the 1300 chart showed the front still
over Cornwall, so I'd have expected for the central south coast to
have a sunny morning with only high cloud, with no precipitation until
at least 1600. Instead it was overcast from the outset in this area
(Southampton) and the first drizzle was as early as 0930. The various
forecasts seemed to be suggesting anything between 20 and 22. So why
did it cloud over so very early in the day - did the front move in
much quicker than expected?

Nick- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It's fairly sunny currently in St Ives Bay & Mount's Bay.
www.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm Beach car parks are already
filling.

Camborne is up in the misty low cloud, so the reported recent weather
for Penzance (15.7!! - go to Penzance forecast & click recent) is
actually for Camborne, which is misty and already around 3C cooler!

So anybody using the MetO site to monitor forecast against reality
(Martin?) for St Ives Bay or Mount's Bay, is currently getting serious
misinformation. Already over the forecast max here (in fact last
nights minimum of 16.1C, was closer to the forecast max for today than
the current temperature)

I don't expect the sun to last too long, so I'm off for a dip.

Graham
Penzance

"Graham Easterling" wrote in message
...
On 29 Aug, 11:52, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote ...







The one 'Amber' was for the outlook script issued on Tuesday
evening (i.e. several days in advance), where the emphasis was on
the 'cool' and heavy showers - it actually felt warm in the
sunshine (Hurn max 20.8, which is close to 'average' for the end of
August) and if there were heavy showers in this immediate area, I'm
not aware of them.

Martin.

Martin, a band of fragmented moderate-heavy showers from large Cu/Cb
crossed the central south and south-east during the early evening.
The composite radar image at 1920Z
http://www.metbrief.com/Images/1920.pngshows the showers that
passed over the Bournemouth area (depositing 0.4mm in the hour)
before quickly decaying.

... thanks Jon, but I'm only verifying the 'public' *daytime*
forecasts - we too got those showers, but it was dark! The idea is to
assess for those with a couple of kiddies wanting a few hours
pottering about on the beach, or at one of the local pleasure spots.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Trouble is, it all depends what visitors come for. I think the holiday
trade is very different this far down, as most visitors, certainly
based on my experience in the business, aren't really 'bucket & spade'
but come for an activity (surfing, walking, climbing, cycling,
boating, wildlife photography, gardens etc.) which is why the season
is now so long here. Surfing is now reckoned to be west & north
Cornwall biggest industry, and it's year round, which is so good for
Cornwall's economy.

Most beaches red flagged yesterday due to the dangerous surf & some
massive rips, so bad news for the various water enthusiasts. On the
other hand it was great seeing the big sea in bright sunshine.
www.sennen-cove.com/todaysurf.htm

Nice sunny moring, hazy at times due to some quite dense patches of
cirrus, and light winds!

Graham
Penzance


The wind was by far the biggest factor around the coasts of the
Isle of Wight on Friday but in spite of the gale, (yes a full gale at
Shepherd's Chine on the southwest coast) the high sea temperature
at this time of year and unbroken sunshine gave that strange warm
quality to the wind. Just one layer of clothing was required, and I
achieved a short-lived tan (wind burn). I do recall seeing a few
low-topped Cb's on the mainland early afternoon.

A terrific rip current observed off St. Catherine's Point with quite
a confused sea and plenty of spume blowing onto the beaches and
up the chines. At Shepherd's Chine, I measured a mean speed of
34kt with gusts to 40kt using my hand held anemometer. The lulls
were 28kt! Very strong for August. Earlier, the wind reached 50kt
while crossing the Solent just beyond Calshot Spit but that was a bit
of a cheat since the ferry was chugging into the wind at about 15kt!
Nonetheless, it felt like a force 9 on the upper deck and it was a real
effort to yank open the wooden door to gain access.

Nigel

http://freespace.virgin.net/martin.r...OH_AugBH09.htm

.... Monday's round-up:

13 Greens, 10 Yellows, 0 Ambers, 1 Red

and the Aggregate:

Green: 44 (55%)
Yellow: 16 (20%) .... total Green + Yellow = 60 (75%)
Amber: 8 (10%)
Red: 12 (15%)

[ total = 80 individual forecast 'packages' ]

Although these data cover a range of forecast lead-times, and are from
two essentially different types of forecast (web, point specific &
text), the split [75% essentially 'right' and 25% essentially 'wrong']
probably represents a fair summary of forecasts for a similar location
in this country.

When I get more time, I'll break down the forecast into 'lead-times'
etc., and put the results on my web site.

One general point though, for us anyway (i.e. Poole/Bournemouth etc.),
it's best to use the symbols and text together, and to follow the
sequence of forecasts rather than rely on just one issue - this is
particularly applicable to the computer-generated forecasts.

Martin.



--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
news
http://freespace.virgin.net/martin.r...OH_AugBH09.htm

... Monday's round-up:

13 Greens, 10 Yellows, 0 Ambers, 1 Red

and the Aggregate:

Green: 44 (55%)
Yellow: 16 (20%) .... total Green + Yellow = 60 (75%)
Amber: 8 (10%)
Red: 12 (15%)

[ total = 80 individual forecast 'packages' ]


Interesting stats Martin. The thing I notice is that I often make up a
forecast just based on looking out of the window and at a synpotic chart..
then I read the 'forecast' and see its not what I was expecting and I am
often right.......the internet has done wonders for people to make their own
forecasts up.......mind close call today!

Phil