On Nov 27, 3:15*pm, "Alan Murphy" wrote:
"Martin Rowley" wrote in message

...http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/

Martin.

Martin Rowley

Let me guess. A barbecue winter?

In all seriousness though, after last summer's debacle over BBQs, the
UKMO clearly thinks a couple of bar charts with bare figures will help
the public to grasp the fact that there are large uncertainties in
seasonal forecasting. But they have to be more entertaining than that
if they are to grab people's attention. I suggest something like: Tell
the kids they have a 20% chance of a building a snowman. I am sure
other ng members can help the MO out with some punchy headlines,
although I fear employees have had the hard word put on them not to
stick their necks out. Chickens!
On another point,
the highest probabilty given of a 50% chance of a mild winter (global
warming and all that) could be thought to increase the the probability
of wetness. This is not reflected in the precipitation forecast. Just
shows the silly idea that a warmer atmosphere which 'holds' more water
vapour will automatically give more rain is grossly simplistic, but
nevertheless is continually churned out by all and sundry.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon

On Nov 27, 1:44*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Nov 27, 12:33 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message

...

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/

Martin.

Evens for a milder winter, evens for a normal or cold winter. I'll take
those odds, a milder winter will give me some snow, a normal or cold
winter
will give me a lot more snow. Fantastic!

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

I'll give you 3/1 a colder than average winter!

-----

Paul, done!

If I win you owe me three pints and if you win I'll buy you a pint.

Will
--

OK Will. Good luck! We'll go by Phil's CET measure, OK?

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Nov 27, 1:44 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Nov 27, 12:33 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message

...

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/

Martin.

Evens for a milder winter, evens for a normal or cold winter. I'll take
those odds, a milder winter will give me some snow, a normal or cold
winter
will give me a lot more snow. Fantastic!

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

I'll give you 3/1 a colder than average winter!

-----

Paul, done!

If I win you owe me three pints and if you win I'll buy you a pint.

Will
--

OK Will. Good luck! We'll go by Phil's CET measure, OK?

============

OK, -0.1C anomaly (c.f. 1971-2000 normal) or less for whole of DJF will mean
a colder winter and you will owe me 3 pints, 0.0C or greater and I owe you a
pint.

We'll pick a pub in March!

Will
--

On Nov 27, 5:07*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Nov 27, 1:44 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

....
On Nov 27, 12:33 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message

...

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/

Martin.

Evens for a milder winter, evens for a normal or cold winter. I'll take
those odds, a milder winter will give me some snow, a normal or cold
winter
will give me a lot more snow. Fantastic!

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

I'll give you 3/1 a colder than average winter!

-----

Paul, done!

If I win you owe me three pints and if you win I'll buy you a pint.

Will
--

OK Will. Good luck! We'll go by Phil's CET measure, OK?

============

OK, -0.1C anomaly (c.f. 1971-2000 normal) or less for whole of DJF will mean
a colder winter and you will owe me 3 pints, 0.0C or greater and I owe you a
pint.

We'll pick a pub in March!

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yup! Sounds good to me! I'll have a pint of Jail Ale in Princetown.

Len Wood wrote:
On Nov 27, 11:31 am, Howard Neil wrote:
Martin Rowley wrote:
http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/

Martin.

It seems they have taken up spread betting.

--
Howard Neil

Gordon Bennett! Jo Public is going to love trying to intepret that.
50% chance of it being milder. In other words it might or might not
be.
Or that's how the tabloids will intepret it.
As regards precipitation, hedging bets here.

This could be seen as covering all bases, but I think it's just
being realistic regarding what is currently possible in seasonal
forecasting.
A seasonal forecast can't be made along the lines that the
weather *will* do this, that or the other.
Rather, it has to be evaluated and presented in terms of
probabilities. And if there is no strong signal of any definate
weather pattern then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Nov 27, 4:27*pm, Len Wood wrote:
On Nov 27, 3:15*pm, "Alan Murphy" wrote:

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message

...http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/

Martin.

Martin Rowley

Let me guess. A barbecue winter?

In all seriousness though, after last summer's debacle over BBQs, the
UKMO clearly thinks a couple of bar charts with bare figures will help
the public to grasp the fact that there are large uncertainties in
seasonal forecasting. But they have to be more entertaining than that
if they are to grab people's attention. I suggest something like: Tell
the kids they have a 20% chance of a building a snowman. I am sure
other ng members can help the MO out with some punchy headlines,
although I fear employees have had the hard word put on them not to
stick their necks out. Chickens!
On another point,
the highest probabilty given of a 50% chance of a mild winter (global
warming and all that) could be thought to increase the the probability
of wetness. This is not reflected in the precipitation forecast. Just
shows the silly idea that a warmer atmosphere which 'holds' more water
vapour will automatically give more rain is grossly simplistic, but
nevertheless is continually churned out by all and sundry.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon

I agree with much of what you say Len. The forecast has a plain theme
that the MetO is in full control and actually has a good idea of what
is likely to happen this winter and we should trust the forecast.
Essentially, they don't and we can't.

On the intro page to the seasonal forecasts, the MetO do say this:

"Seasonal forecasting is a developing area of meteorology and,
although these forecasts are not as accurate as our short-term
forecasts, they do demonstrate some skill in predicting what may
happen for a season (a three-month period) ahead."

However, the health warning on this forecast just isn't
(metaphorically) large enough and that comes through a systemic
unwillingness to feel that the public have any real role in it's work.
In this case, there's not enough admittance of the difficulties of
seasonal forecasting and if it's wrong, they'll be pilloried. It's the
education part that's missing and the hubris that the PR department
does little to dispel. The MetO would be far better engaging the
public with the difficulties and explaining the limitations before
putting out their seasonal forecasts. It simply isn't possible to
forecast the coming season with accuracy - yet. There's a lot that is
so frustrating about this, as the MetO is failing to sell itself well
enough as one of the finest and foremost forecasting agencies in the
world. It just feels that it is and that's not enough.

On Nov 27, 7:50*pm, "Col" wrote:
Len Wood wrote:
On Nov 27, 11:31 am, Howard Neil wrote:
Martin Rowley wrote:
http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/

Martin.

It seems they have taken up spread betting.

--
Howard Neil

Gordon Bennett! Jo Public is going to love trying to intepret that.
50% chance of it being milder. In other words it might or might not
be.
Or that's how the tabloids will intepret it.
As regards precipitation, hedging bets here.

This could be seen as covering all bases, but I think it's just
being realistic regarding what is currently possible in seasonal
forecasting.
A seasonal forecast can't be made along the lines that the
weather *will* do this, that or the other.
Rather, it has to be evaluated and presented in terms of
probabilities. And if there is no strong signal of any definate
weather pattern then so be it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Yes, but when they say there is a 50% chance it will be mild and 50%
that it will be cool then any fool could of come up with that!

Cheers, Alastair.

http://www.complexclimate.org

|"Alastair" wrote in message
...
|On Nov 27, 7:50 pm, "Col" wrote:
|
| This could be seen as covering all bases, but I think it's just
| being realistic regarding what is currently possible in seasonal
| forecasting.
| A seasonal forecast can't be made along the lines that the
| weather *will* do this, that or the other.
| Rather, it has to be evaluated and presented in terms of
| probabilities. And if there is no strong signal of any definate
| weather pattern then so be it.
| --
| Col
|
| Bolton, Lancashire
| 160m asl
|
|Yes, but when they say there is a 50% chance it will be mild and 50%
|that it will be cool then any fool could of come up with that!
|

They have not said that there is a 50% chance that it will be mild and a 50%
chance that it will be cool. Have a closer look at that forecast.

The prediction is split into three sections (or "terciles"), each of which
would be equally probable if the outcome were totally random. So a "don't
know" forecast would be 33% chance "cold", 33% chance "average", 33% chance
"mild". If you look at the rainfall prediction, you will see that they have
gone for something fairly similar to this.

What the Met Office have gone for with temprerature is the "mild" category
to be as likely as "average" and "cold" *put together*. This is actually a
strong forecast for a mild winter - they are giving "evens" on what should
be "2 to 1 against". Or you could say that they reckon a "mild" winter is
half as likely again (3/6 chance rather than a 2/6 chance) as one would
expect at random.

In fact if you look, you will see their call is for only 20% "cool" - or in
other words they reckon that a mild winter is two and a half times more
likely than a cold winter with a 30% chance the winter will be neither mild
nor cool. Don't know where you got the "50% chance mild and 50% chance
cool" from - that is most definitely NOT what the forecast says!

That's the trouble with probabilistic forecasts. Hardly anyone knows how
statistics actually work...

the betting addict again


Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 27, 12:33 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Martin Rowley" wrote in message

...

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/
Martin.
Evens for a milder winter, evens for a normal or cold winter. I'll take
those odds, a milder winter will give me some snow, a normal or cold winter
will give me a lot more snow. Fantastic!

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

I'll give you 3/1 a colder than average winter!

oh of course, your forecasts are better than that mainframe in exeter.



Dawlish wrote:


However, the health warning on this forecast just isn't
(metaphorically) large enough and that comes through a systemic
unwillingness to feel that the public have any real role in it's work.
In this case, there's not enough admittance of the difficulties of
seasonal forecasting and if it's wrong, they'll be pilloried. It's the
education part that's missing and the hubris that the PR department
does little to dispel. The MetO would be far better engaging the
public with the difficulties and explaining the limitations before
putting out their seasonal forecasts. It simply isn't possible to
forecast the coming season with accuracy - yet. There's a lot that is
so frustrating about this, as the MetO is failing to sell itself well
enough as one of the finest and foremost forecasting agencies in the
world. It just feels that it is and that's not enough.