In a previous thread, it was Dawlish who said a cold winter was unlikely,
at least partly because very few months in recent years have been colder
than the 1971-2000
average. I agree entirely with this. Looking at the last 2 years, for
example, only December 2008 and Jan 2009 here, have been colder than the
long term average. Therefore, it seems unlikely that December, which was
relatively cold last year, will be cold this time.

So this forecast, which is merely guesswork/speculation but based on past
mild
Decembers, looks like this:-

A continuation of the present unsettled weather for at least another week.
Then, sometime in the second week, a rise in pressure , probably from the
west, bringing a drier spell. The High may settle over the country for a
few days, and then will probably take up a position somewhere between the
south of
Ireland and northern France. Temperatures by day near normal, but some
frost and fog at night until it becomes generally cloudy and mild.
Gradually, the High recedes to the south or south-east, and maybe there is
a brief introduction of cold air from the north before the westerlies
return around Christmas and persist until the New Year - setting the scene
for a mild January.
As the last 2 very wet Novembers ( 2000 and 2002) were followed by rainy
Decembers
it is tempting to suggest that this year it will also be wetter than
average; most of the rain
occurring early and late in the month.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom

On Dec 1, 7:53*pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
Maybe this year will be different looking at the charts for around 10
days time though. If anything, this year reminds me rather of 2000/01,
which, while not great, was one of the more interesting winters of the
past 20 years (in the top 5).

Nick
-------------------
I know what you mean Nick - it's getting a bit like "damned with faint
praise"
dave

Dave, I used to issue winter forecasts based on November rainfall and
temperatures ,sunspot cycles,similarities,anomalies. UK data going
back over 100 years. It was time consuming work, but enjoyable. Some
readers of this newsgroup may remember them. Simplistic, but whether
they were any good or not is for others to say. This winter on merely
scanning the data I would suggest that the Office should have issued a
30-50-20 forecast instead of a 20-50-30 (I too used to use
percentages).
Not enough November ice to hold a duck was there? So that proves
it . Cheers. Paul