SATURDAY 5 PM
LOOK OUT ENGLAND, A BAD MOONS A RISING.

POTENTIAL CRIPPLING SNOWSTORM ON THE HORIZON FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ENGLAND!


Remember, the issuance of major cold was for Jan 1-10 so this is day
2. Judging by some of my email, people dont understand that Jan 1-10
is not Dec 30. Another unfortunate announcement, I cant answer all
email.

But there are some big ticket items showing up including the threat of
the biggest snows in england in years later next week ( jan 7-12) as
major cold is entrenched in much of Europe north of the Alps and west
of Italy by Tuesday. Low pressure should develop west of Italy Tuesday
and drift northeast, then pull north. This the center of the storm
coming up into Germany and the major northeast flow that develops
surface to 15,000 ft over England sets the stage for a major
nationwide winter event for later next week. The cold is major enough,
but the threat of snows for much of northwest Europe all the way into
France the next 10 days are such that this really could be sticking
out like a frozen soar thumb. The slow movement west and deep easterly
flow means a 3-5 day event that could tax englands ability to combat
winter weather. Its as ugly as I have seen a set up as the
Scandinavian high sets up west east to the north and keeps cold air
flowing westward with the cyclonic disturbance turning west under
England. It will be interesting to see what other private sources (
Piers Corbyn, the The Weather Outlook) are saying here and as one who
wants people as up on things as possible, I would recomend seeing
their opinions. This column is not meant to go for individual weather
events, but this kind of event could be the winter storm of a life
time for alot of northwest Europe I would rather be perfect on any
idea, but if I have to be wrong, I would rather be overdone on this
because I am nervous about the complacency over the years as far as
the threat of the kind of winter weather that was common years many
many years ago, and may become more common in the near future.

The storm will start in France first as arctic air spreads back
southwest tom night and Monday and the upper feature moves east first
through Spain. Its a wild set up

In the meantime keep warm! Southeast europe, from the balkans
southeast are overall mild in this pattern as I emphasized in the
issuances this is a big 3 industrial area of the world, far east, the
plains east on the US and northern and eastern Europe that is in the
tank.

It could be interesting for the dairy farmers out there. I mean what
do you do when its so cold your cows are giving ice cream instead of
milk (lol)?

I hope the energy people in europe understand what they are dealing
with this winter.

ciao for now ****


http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp

In message , Dave Cornwell
writes
......

What an excellently written piece that is.

Oh, thank you.

I suspect we would struggle because people are not prepared to accept
difficulties in the same way. In 1947 my dad had to cut wood from trees
for fuel as the coal had run out. In 1963 we had no central heating and
lived with frost on the inside of the windows.

And we *could* then burn solid fuel. You father had a very clear choice
between cutting wood and his family being cold. This house was built in
the 60s on the assumption that gas fire and back-boiler were sufficient.
Immediate neighbour who tried a wood fire when the those were replaced
eventually gave up. Don't really want to have the chimney - all
twenty-summat feet of it, rebuilt, but will investigate fitting a
wood-burning stove.

Ah, frost-patterns inside the windows. Remember those. Pretty. Too damn'
cold, though.

The school stayed open despite 6 foot or more snow drifts and this
was in a relatively urban area. There was still that kind of Dunkirk spirit
where few complained and most tried to deal with the difficulties the best
they could.

The Dunkirk spirit is all very well, but not really the answer to people
struggling with front-wheel drive and wide tyres on slippery roads.
Local driving seems to be more cautious, but there was yet another skid
and spin behind us this morning. By coincidence, heard like the previous
two when in the bathroom. Scarcely dare be seated there now.... What
would help is shorter journeys and working public transport.

Just seen Countrythingy forecast - awaiting my wife's reaction to it.
Snow is beautiful to look at, and a bugger to cope with for very long.
Just seen Wednesday onwards from UKMO at
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo...120&carte=1021 as
quoted elsewhere. Hmmm.

Trying to think which year we had -10 or was it -12 here in Surrey.
Early 80s, maybe? We had less domestic insulation then, but were
younger.
--
Peter Thomas

In article ,
Peter Thomas writes:
snip
Trying to think which year we had -10 or was it -12 here in Surrey.
Early 80s, maybe? We had less domestic insulation then, but were
younger.

I think that between about 1978-9 and 1987 there were about five winters
when at least one night had a minimum in that sort of range in Lowland
Surrey.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

Tudor Hughes wrote:


Every bit of that is true. All the more incomprehensible, then,
that there are snow- and cold-weather freaks around and that most of
them seem to be on this group. I can only assume that for them the
weather trumps everything and that therefore they have no interests
outside the weather and have no responsibilities. Well, fair play to
them; I was like that at the age of 12 but you soon grow out of it as
the full panoply of adult life starts to unfold before you.

Better childish than a grumpy old man.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

In message
,
Dawlish writes


......
I'm fascinated by extremes and I'll bet most
on here are. To say you're not and to pooh pooh others' enjoyment of
those (yes, bloody dangerous and life-threatening extremes) is just
poor form. I hate cold weather, but I love cold extremes. I'm really
concerned that the possible snow and ice this week will cause
accidents and broken bones and I've expressed my sympathies, however
I'm almost willing it to happen.

Don't get that? Tough. It won't spoil my enjoyment (and concern) if it
does happen.


I rather take the view that I intend to try to take a moderately
intelligent interest in what is going on, and to enjoy what is to be
enjoyed. That said, there is a striking dichotomy [1] between the
aesthetic beauty of snow, frost and ice and the potential hazards and
sheer physical slog of dealing with these.

The thing I really miss about snow when it melts is the light.

The thing I really shan't miss about ice is people having accidents or
getting stuck and the manhandling of vehicles and marshalling of people
entailed. All good fun up to a point, but you never know when something
may go badly wrong.

Sympathy or empathy shown for those in trouble may be a good thing in
moral and social terms but not, on its own, of any help to anyone. So do
what we can about the dangers and hardships, and try to enjoy the rest?

Not sure that 'willing it' has any effect.

I'm told the forecast - MetO via BBC presumably - has changed yet again,
Tuesday - tomorrow - won't give us lots of snow after all, but Wednesday
may. Local MetO still showing light snow and warnings still set moderate
for both days. I think I left that spade in the garage....

[1] Not a word I usually get to use.
--
Peter Thomas

In message , Peter Thomas
writes



I'm told the forecast - MetO via BBC presumably - has changed yet
again, Tuesday - tomorrow - won't give us lots of snow after all, but
Wednesday may. Local MetO still showing light snow and warnings still
set moderate for both days. I think I left that spade in the garage....

Spade indoors. Car off road on lawn. Am told BBC national forecast
didn't have snow for Surrey but BBC regional forecast did. The
post-match analysis should be fun.

NAE seems to be holding it back for Weds, likewise GFS and not many mm.
And WRF NMM at Meteociel seems to have a glitch in its timings - advance
from +24 to +25 and the local time goes back a few hours but the thing
seems to show precipitation nicely curved - presumably the occluded
front - here in the small hours of Wednesday.






--
Peter Thomas

On Jan 4, 6:40*pm, "Col" wrote:
Tudor Hughes wrote:

* * *Every bit of that is true. *All the more incomprehensible, then,
that there are snow- and cold-weather freaks around and that most of
them seem to be on this group. *I can only assume that for them the
weather trumps everything and that therefore they have no interests
outside the weather and have no responsibilities. *Well, fair play to
them; I was like that at the age of 12 but you soon grow out of it as
the full panoply of adult life starts to unfold before you.

Better childish than a grumpy old man.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Well, that's charming and I don't think anyone in the real world
would recognise the description. I think Dawlish has made a good
point. (We may have more in common than either of us would like to
admit). He recognises the difficulty (as does Peter Thomas) of
reconciling a desire to experience extreme weather with the
inconvenience it causes to both oneself and others who may suffer from
its effects. The really posh term for this is Cognitive Dissonance in
which people hold views that are or appear to be incompatible. But we
all have them.
In my case, despite a lifetime's interest in the weather and
being a COL (no pun intended) contributor for over 25 years I have no
doubt in my mind that I hate snow and cold weather however interesting
it is meteorologically. (It is). The house gets cold, you don't want
to go out and do a job in the garden or garage (I said job not jobbie)
and you see people out walking with a grimace rather than a smile. My
social life and musical life (not always a clear distinction here) are
inhibited and these are very important and if I can't get around
that's very bad news. And I don't even have to go to work these
days. If I did that would be even more hassle. Maybe there are those
for whom the weather trumps all but that's not for me and never has
been. To be constantly hoping for snow strikes me as just weirdly
puerile and in my social circles I would be dismissed as a nutter if I
was like that, as opposed to being simply The Bloke Who Knows A Bit
About The Weather.
Grumpy old man, Col? It's the bloody weather, mate. Bring Me
The Head Of Joe *******i! Give me a Bartlett High! What do we want?
Moderate Zonality! When do we want it? As soon as is
GrossWetterlagenisch feasible!

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Jan 4, 6:40 pm, "Col" wrote:
Tudor Hughes wrote:

Every bit of that is true. All the more incomprehensible, then,
that there are snow- and cold-weather freaks around and that most of
them seem to be on this group. I can only assume that for them the
weather trumps everything and that therefore they have no interests
outside the weather and have no responsibilities. Well, fair play to
them; I was like that at the age of 12 but you soon grow out of it
as the full panoply of adult life starts to unfold before you.

Better childish than a grumpy old man.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Well, that's charming and I don't think anyone in the real world
would recognise the description. I think Dawlish has made a good
point. (We may have more in common than either of us would like to
admit). He recognises the difficulty (as does Peter Thomas) of
reconciling a desire to experience extreme weather with the
inconvenience it causes to both oneself and others who may suffer from
its effects. The really posh term for this is Cognitive Dissonance in
which people hold views that are or appear to be incompatible. But we
all have them.
In my case, despite a lifetime's interest in the weather and
being a COL (no pun intended) contributor for over 25 years I have no
doubt in my mind that I hate snow and cold weather however interesting
it is meteorologically. (It is). The house gets cold, you don't want
to go out and do a job in the garden or garage (I said job not jobbie)
and you see people out walking with a grimace rather than a smile. My
social life and musical life (not always a clear distinction here) are
inhibited and these are very important and if I can't get around
that's very bad news. And I don't even have to go to work these
days. If I did that would be even more hassle. Maybe there are those
for whom the weather trumps all but that's not for me and never has
been. To be constantly hoping for snow strikes me as just weirdly
puerile and in my social circles I would be dismissed as a nutter if I
was like that, as opposed to being simply The Bloke Who Knows A Bit
About The Weather.
Grumpy old man, Col? It's the bloody weather, mate. Bring Me
The Head Of Joe *******i! Give me a Bartlett High! What do we want?
Moderate Zonality! When do we want it? As soon as is
GrossWetterlagenisch feasible!

As I have already stated I think cold weather fans fully
appreciate the trouble it can cause. However that shouldn't
be allowed to diminish the interest in such extremes in
themselves.
As for 'childid' well there has been six inches of snow here
overnight and there is not a breath of wind. All the trees are
coated and it looks absolutely stunning, it's quite a sight!
If appreciating something like that is childish then so be it.

What I do find infantile is the 'toys out of the pram' tantrums
from a few people when they don't get the snow they were
promished.
You won't get that attitude from me.
I like snow but I'm philisophical about whether it comes
or not, if it does great if it doesn't well there's all the next
set-up. No point crying over it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Jan 5, 6:44*am, "Col" wrote:
Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Jan 4, 6:40 pm, "Col" wrote:
Tudor Hughes wrote:

Every bit of that is true. All the more incomprehensible, then,
that there are snow- and cold-weather freaks around and that most of
them seem to be on this group. I can only assume that for them the
weather trumps everything and that therefore they have no interests
outside the weather and have no responsibilities. Well, fair play to
them; I was like that at the age of 12 but you soon grow out of it
as the full panoply of adult life starts to unfold before you.

Better childish than a grumpy old man.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

* * *Well, that's charming and I don't think anyone in the real world
would recognise the description. *I think Dawlish has made a good
point. (We may have more in common than either of us would like to
admit). *He recognises the difficulty (as does Peter Thomas) *of
reconciling a desire to experience extreme weather with the
inconvenience it causes to both oneself and others who may suffer from
its effects. *The really posh term for this is Cognitive Dissonance in
which people hold views that are or appear to be incompatible. *But we
all have them.
* * * *In my case, despite a lifetime's interest in the weather and
being a COL (no pun intended) contributor for over 25 years I have no
doubt in my mind that I hate snow and cold weather however interesting
it is meteorologically. (It is). *The house gets cold, you don't want
to go out and do a job in the garden or garage (I said job not jobbie)
and you see people out walking with a grimace rather than a smile. *My
social life and musical life (not always a clear distinction here) are
inhibited and these are very important and if I can't get around
that's very bad news. *And I don't even have to go to work these
days. *If I did that would be even more hassle. *Maybe there are those
for whom the weather trumps all but that's not for me and never has
been. *To be constantly hoping for snow strikes me as just weirdly
puerile and in my social circles I would be dismissed as a nutter if I
was like that, as opposed to being simply The Bloke Who Knows A Bit
About The Weather.
* * * Grumpy old man, Col? *It's the bloody weather, mate. *Bring Me
The Head Of Joe *******i! *Give me a Bartlett High! * What do we want?
Moderate Zonality! *When do we want it? As soon as is
GrossWetterlagenisch feasible!

As I have already stated I think cold weather fans fully
appreciate the trouble it can cause. However that shouldn't
be allowed to diminish the interest in such extremes in
themselves.
As for 'childid' well there has been six inches of snow here
overnight and there is not a breath of wind. All the trees are
coated and it looks absolutely stunning, it's quite a sight!
If appreciating something like that is childish then so be it.

What I do find infantile is the 'toys out of the pram' tantrums
from a few people when they don't get the snow they were
promished.
You won't get that attitude from me.
I like snow but I'm philisophical about whether it comes
or not, if it does great if it doesn't well there's all the next
set-upmy thoughts entirely. No point crying over it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

My thoughts entirely; and it wont stop me willing* (I know Peter,
completely stupid isn't it!) snow to happen, despite the fact that I
fully appreciate and worry about its dangers.

*Don't think it works eh? It's SNOWING!!!!!!!

In article ,
Col writes:
As I have already stated I think cold weather fans fully
appreciate the trouble it can cause. However that shouldn't
be allowed to diminish the interest in such extremes in
themselves.
As for 'childid' well there has been six inches of snow here
overnight and there is not a breath of wind. All the trees are
coated and it looks absolutely stunning, it's quite a sight!
If appreciating something like that is childish then so be it.

What I do find infantile is the 'toys out of the pram' tantrums
from a few people when they don't get the snow they were
promished.
You won't get that attitude from me.
I like snow but I'm philisophical about whether it comes
or not, if it does great if it doesn't well there's all the next
set-up. No point crying over it.

What Col said.

I suspect that there's a far higher proportion of "snow lovers" amongst
those with a keen interest in the weather than there is amongst the
general population. (The enthusiasm for snow is very evident in the
writings of even such an eminent climatologist as Gordon Manley.)
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)