Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Sunday.
Issued 0519, 17th February 2010

The outlook is still the same as ever: low pressure close to the UK, snow
more likely over high ground in the north and west but not exclusively so;
rain more likely for most of England and Wales but again some wintriness
can't be ruled out from time to time. Temperatures will be close to average
in the southeast, rather cold for much of England, Northern Ireland and
Wales and cold for Scotland. Later next week there are tentative signs of a
general warming across the UK as the jet moves slowly northwards again.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
SE'lies cover the UK, with a low to the west. The low moves SE'wards on
Thursday, bringing southerlies to the SE and NE'lies elsewhere. Friday sees
low pressure over the North Sea with a mixture of NW'lies and westerlies for
the UK. Westerlies persist on Saturday with low pressure to the NE.

T+120 synopsis
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows the main thrust of the jet remaining well to the
south, over northern Africa. A secondary jet also lies to the south, over
the English Channel. At the 500hPa level there are NW'lies with a trough
over the North Sea. ECM has upper westerlies with a broad swathe of upper
westerlies to the south. MetO brings an upper low over Scotland with
westerlies aloft elsewhere, while GEM has an upper low to the NE and
westerlies aloft. JMA shows upper WSW'lies with a trough to the north.
At the surface, GFS brings westerlies with a low north of Scotland. ECM has
SE'lies for most with a trough to the west and a col over Scotland. MetO
shows a slack low over the UK and light winds for all. GEM brings cold
SW'lies for most with a low to the NE, while JMA has a weak ridge over the
Scottish borders. To the north, there are SW'lies; to the south, SE'lies.

Evolution to T+168
ECM has easterlies on day 6 as low pressure fills to the SW. The low deepens
on day 7, leading to southerlies for England and easterlies elsewhere.
GFS has westerlies on day 6 with a deep low to the north. On day 7 loes lie
to the NE and SW, with southerlies for the SE and northerlies or NW'lies
elsewhere.

Looking further afield
ECM shows low pressure to the NE on day 8 with WSW'lies for most. Day 9 sees
a trough over the UK with SE'lies for England and Wales and easterlies
elsewhere. By day 10 easterlies cover all areas with a trough over southern
England.
GFS has a col on day 8. On day 9 strong to gale force SW'lies cover the UK,
ahead of a low to the WSW. By day 10 the low fills to the west, with
southerlies and SE'lies for the UK as a result.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The GEFS shows temperatures a little below average for the next week or so,
followed by a marked warming trend.

ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif
Yesterday's ECM was one of the milder options in the latter part of the run.

Darren Prescott wrote:
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)


The GEFS shows temperatures a little below average for the next week or
so, followed by a marked warming trend.


why bother with the GFS

dont you ever learn.

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

"TT" wrote in message
...
Darren Prescott wrote:
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)

The GEFS shows temperatures a little below average for the next week or
so, followed by a marked warming trend.


why bother with the GFS

dont you ever learn.

Interesting Terry.

Once again the UKMO model is holding its guns maintaining very cold weather,
at least to T+144 and looks quite different to GFS. We had a similar
situation the other way round in January when the UKMO persisted in warming
things up against the GFS, sometimes UKMO was on its own and it was right!
It's all very difficult but generally UKMO and ECM statistically have the
best historical performance. JMA is also a good model to throw into the mix
too, though tends to have 850 hPa temperatures a little too low at times
I've noticed.

Will
--

yes its becoming an all too common occurence with the GFS that it has to
be dragged kicking and screaming to fall in line with ukmo/ecm. often at
short notice , and then it make self look very very bad.

seems like even the NOAA and u.s organisations favouring ecm/ukmo this
winter.



Will Hand wrote:

"TT" wrote in message
...
Darren Prescott wrote:
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)


The GEFS shows temperatures a little below average for the next week
or so, followed by a marked warming trend.


why bother with the GFS

dont you ever learn.

Interesting Terry.

Once again the UKMO model is holding its guns maintaining very cold
weather, at least to T+144 and looks quite different to GFS. We had a
similar situation the other way round in January when the UKMO persisted
in warming things up against the GFS, sometimes UKMO was on its own and
it was right! It's all very difficult but generally UKMO and ECM
statistically have the best historical performance. JMA is also a good
model to throw into the mix too, though tends to have 850 hPa
temperatures a little too low at times I've noticed.

Will