Will,
This one is really for you. I am getting concerned regarding Sunday,
from my latest perusal of the forecast there is a real chance of a
period of heavy blowing snow for Devon and beyond on Sunday. The low
engages cold air to the east and advects it very quickly west to
engage the precip. This air is cold enough to turn the rain to snow
down to fairly low levels. I think the GFS under plays the cold air,
although it does show it. The cold air makes a comeback over Saturday
and completes the journey west around the low on Sunday. All models
agree on the Sunday low so I think there is a real threat. We are
talkng a possible six inches. This is not a forecast, more a point for
discussion.
Pete

"Ilsington" wrote in message
...
Will,
This one is really for you. I am getting concerned regarding Sunday,
from my latest perusal of the forecast there is a real chance of a
period of heavy blowing snow for Devon and beyond on Sunday. The low
engages cold air to the east and advects it very quickly west to
engage the precip. This air is cold enough to turn the rain to snow
down to fairly low levels. I think the GFS under plays the cold air,
although it does show it. The cold air makes a comeback over Saturday
and completes the journey west around the low on Sunday. All models
agree on the Sunday low so I think there is a real threat. We are
talkng a possible six inches. This is not a forecast, more a point for
discussion.
Pete

Hi Pete, it all depends crucially on low track. I still think northern
France will bear the brunt of the wind and rain, possibly SE England at
lower risk.

Of more concern is later next week as yet another low bumps into colder air
over southern Britain, yet another blizzard scenario for upland SW England
but obviously only a remote possibility at this stage.

Will
--

In message , Will Hand
writes

"Ilsington" wrote in message
...
Will,
This one is really for you. I am getting concerned regarding Sunday,
from my latest perusal of the forecast there is a real chance of a
period of heavy blowing snow for Devon and beyond on Sunday. The low
engages cold air to the east and advects it very quickly west to
engage the precip. This air is cold enough to turn the rain to snow
down to fairly low levels. I think the GFS under plays the cold air,
although it does show it. The cold air makes a comeback over Saturday
and completes the journey west around the low on Sunday. All models
agree on the Sunday low so I think there is a real threat. We are
talkng a possible six inches. This is not a forecast, more a point for
discussion.
Pete

Hi Pete, it all depends crucially on low track. I still think northern
France will bear the brunt of the wind and rain, possibly SE England at
lower risk.

Of more concern is later next week as yet another low bumps into colder
air over southern Britain, yet another blizzard scenario for upland SW
England but obviously only a remote possibility at this stage.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...recast_uv.html

is not something I take as gospel, but it now shows heavy snow here -
outside Guildford - for Sunday night. No warning for it yet.

--
Peter Thomas

On Feb 25, 5:30*pm, Peter Thomas
wrote:
In message , Will Hand
writes





"Ilsington" wrote in message
...
Will,
This one is really for you. I am getting concerned regarding Sunday,
from my latest perusal of the forecast there is a real chance of a
period of heavy blowing snow for Devon and beyond on Sunday. The low
engages cold air to the east and advects it very quickly west to
engage the precip. This air is cold enough to turn the rain to snow
down to fairly low levels. I think the GFS under plays the cold air,
although it does show it. The cold air makes a comeback over Saturday
and completes the journey west around the low on Sunday. All models
agree on the Sunday low so I think there is a real threat. We are
talkng a possible six inches. This is not a forecast, more a point for
discussion.
Pete

Hi Pete, it all depends crucially on low track. I still think northern
France will bear the brunt of the wind and rain, possibly SE England at
lower risk.

Of more concern is later next week as yet another low bumps into colder
air over southern Britain, yet another blizzard scenario for upland SW
England but obviously only a remote possibility at this stage.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...recast_uv.html

is not something I take as gospel, but it now shows heavy snow here -
outside Guildford - for Sunday night. No warning for it yet.

--
Peter Thomas

I must say its fascinating to see the difference between the GFS and
the other models on how it handles the low on Sunday. Until the EC
came in I thought it was just the UK model going for a channel low. I
am looking forward to see how its going to pan out and I agree with
Will that from mid week onwards we shall start to see some really cold
air coming in again. The first half of March looks cold and wintry and
there is still a complete absence of any Westerlies, when will it all
end?

On 25/02/10 19:48, Ilsington wrote:
I must say its fascinating to see the difference between the GFS and
the other models on how it handles the low on Sunday. Until the EC
came in I thought it was just the UK model going for a channel low. I
am looking forward to see how its going to pan out and I agree with
Will that from mid week onwards we shall start to see some really cold
air coming in again. The first half of March looks cold and wintry and
there is still a complete absence of any Westerlies, when will it all
end?

The strength of the cold pool south of Newfoundland and across the
Atlantic suggests it will be around for a while and will continue to
favour easterlies. That's not to say there won't be breaks, just that
easterlies will be more common than usual.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."