I'm surprised by the Met Office forecast for tomorrow which suggests
no clearance even in the afternoon in the south and southwest, which I
would have thought would be the case as we're into NW winds by then.
It shows heavy rain as late as 1500 and the clearance only just
getting into the southwest at 1800. Is this right? I'd have guessed
from the charts that a clearance would arrive in the southwest during
the morning and reach the central south by around midday, or mid
afternoon at the latest.

Nick

"Nick" wrote in message
...
I'm surprised by the Met Office forecast for tomorrow which suggests
no clearance even in the afternoon in the south and southwest, which I
would have thought would be the case as we're into NW winds by then.
It shows heavy rain as late as 1500 and the clearance only just
getting into the southwest at 1800. Is this right? I'd have guessed
from the charts that a clearance would arrive in the southwest during
the morning and reach the central south by around midday, or mid
afternoon at the latest.


A Shapiro-Keyser cyclone often has extensive rain on the northern side of
the system due to the seclusion process. (Warm dome forming aloft). Think of
it as an upper warm front extending round
the northern side of the main "occlusion". You cannot think of these systems
like you do classical types of warm/cold/occlusion, the dynamics are quite
different. Models seem to have captured it quite well.
These systems generally form ahead of extending confluent upper troughs so
they are not rare just not as well understood.

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Nick" wrote in message
...
I'm surprised by the Met Office forecast for tomorrow which suggests
no clearance even in the afternoon in the south and southwest, which I
would have thought would be the case as we're into NW winds by then.
It shows heavy rain as late as 1500 and the clearance only just
getting into the southwest at 1800. Is this right? I'd have guessed
from the charts that a clearance would arrive in the southwest during
the morning and reach the central south by around midday, or mid
afternoon at the latest.


A Shapiro-Keyser cyclone often has extensive rain on the northern side of
the system due to the seclusion process. (Warm dome forming aloft). Think
of it as an upper warm front extending round
the northern side of the main "occlusion". You cannot think of these
systems like you do classical types of warm/cold/occlusion, the dynamics
are quite different. Models seem to have captured it quite well.
These systems generally form ahead of extending confluent upper troughs so
they are not rare just not as well understood.

Will
--

PS looking at sat. imagery seclusion process is now already underway at
1000 hours.
I expect a slight turning to the left and extension of upper cloud
northwards towards SW Britain in next few hours. Critical period now for
track as seclusion can alter the dynamics slightly. Hopefully the models
have got hold of it still. We shall see - it's a big beast with a tight
circulation evident!

Will
--

Will
--

On Sat, 27 Feb 2010 01:45:45 -0800 (PST), Nick
wrote:

I'm surprised by the Met Office forecast for tomorrow which suggests
no clearance even in the afternoon in the south and southwest, which I
would have thought would be the case as we're into NW winds by then.

Will let you know from here in West Dorset.
I get the impression this thing is not deepening as I thought it might
so no records broken for me.
I too thought yesterday it would be all over late morning.

R

Will Hand wrote:

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Nick" wrote in message
...
I'm surprised by the Met Office forecast for tomorrow which suggests
no clearance even in the afternoon in the south and southwest, which I
would have thought would be the case as we're into NW winds by then.
It shows heavy rain as late as 1500 and the clearance only just
getting into the southwest at 1800. Is this right? I'd have guessed
from the charts that a clearance would arrive in the southwest during
the morning and reach the central south by around midday, or mid
afternoon at the latest.


A Shapiro-Keyser cyclone often has extensive rain on the northern side
of the system due to the seclusion process. (Warm dome forming aloft).
Think of it as an upper warm front extending round
the northern side of the main "occlusion". You cannot think of these
systems like you do classical types of warm/cold/occlusion, the
dynamics are quite different. Models seem to have captured it quite well.
These systems generally form ahead of extending confluent upper
troughs so they are not rare just not as well understood.

Will
--

PS looking at sat. imagery seclusion process is now already underway at
1000 hours.
I expect a slight turning to the left and extension of upper cloud
northwards towards SW Britain in next few hours. Critical period now for
track as seclusion can alter the dynamics slightly. Hopefully the models
have got hold of it still. We shall see - it's a big beast with a tight
circulation evident!

Will
--

Will

I'm driving from W Sussex to Manchester tomorrow evening, will the worst
have passed by then or am I in for a pretty horrendous drive?